NFL DFS Week Two Lineup Review
A review of the NFL DFS lineup I put out for this NFL week
This looked like an easy slate because of all the clear great plays we had. But then it ended up being too much. There were too many stud plays that it became tough to put together the best combination. But I figured we’d do fine because it was so easy to put together a high-scoring lineup. I didn’t see much of a way I would lose 90% of my head-to-heads or anything like that.
I went back and forth a ton from Thursday to Sunday morning, but I settled on this:
Let us review the decisions!
Quarterback
In the preview article, I was really into Lamar Jackson. But after seeing the full slate and reading some other people’s stuff, it became pretty clear that he wasn’t the right play. He was so expensive ($7,700) and the game did shape up to be one where his upside was limited by a blowout. The blowout didn’t happen (the Ravens lost!), but Lamar still didn’t put up a great score.
My #2 play was Jayden Daniels, and that’s where I finished. The price was right, the matchup was great, and I thought the floor was there. We pretty much got that floor results, as the Commanders did not score a touchdown, but he managed a non-awful 13.4 points. Not what I wanted, but fine.
Running Backs
Jordan Mason was simply a lock at that price with that role. I didn’t initially love Breece Hall, but I ended up with him due to the floor/ceiling. One way you can get yourself into some trouble in this kind of DFS play is not focusing at all on the ceiling. Most lineups you put out are going to have some busts, and you have to offset the busts with one or two players that explode and make up for it. Hall did not explode, but he did have that in the range of outcomes - and we’ll certainly take the 24.4-point game from him.
Kyren Williams was one of those guys that kept going in and out of my lineup. I thought he was clearly an awesome play, but there were so many other options in that price range that it was tough to parse. There was Deebo Samuel and Chris Godwin around that price. Williams was not the right choice looking back, but I do think there’s more floor to a running back than a wide receiver, and it was pretty tough to see this Rams dud coming. So I’d make that play again.
Wide Receivers
No regrets whatsoever about taking the Cooper Kupp dud. You cannot predict injury, and he played less than half of this game. He was so highly owned that it hardly mattered anyway.
I was immediately on Rashee Rice as a lock play. Some of that Kyren/Deebo/Godwin stuff crept up on him. I could have gone a number of different ways with that foursome, but I ended up with Rice, and he paid off by snagging a 40-yard touchdown.
The play that saved me was Andrei Iosivas at $3,800. He was low-owned at 12% as people gravitated more toward the other cheap WRs like Allen Lazard (who I called Lazardo several times in the preview because I’m a baseball writer primarily). Iosivas had two catches for seven yards, but both were touchdowns. That is called GOOD LUCK, ladies and gentlemen.
Tight End
This came down to which price tag I needed. I loved Brock Bowers, who had a huge game, but the $4,400 didn’t work. The preferred play was probably Colby Parkinson ($3,100), but I did not have the $200 for him - and that turned out being the right choice as Schoonmaker outscored him.
Defense
It was the Chargers the whole way. The Panthers are so, so bad, and the Chargers were very cheap.
Result
Contests:
Double Ups: The lineup cashed pretty easily there. I finished around the 22nd percentile.
Hundos: No cash there. I took 35th, 37th, 29th, 34th, and 40th in the five I played, and the minimum cash line is 22nd place.
Head to Heads: I ended up getting 51 matchups, and I won 44 of them for an 86.3% win rate. Those have been a huge success so far.
Friends Contest: I cashed there again, this time taking second place.
I had a little too much of my investment in those Hundos, so the ROI settled at just +6%.
Weekly ROI Results:
Week 1: 215%
Week 2: 6%Overall: 98%
Weekly Head-to-Head Results:
Week 1: 58/58 (100%)
Week 2: 44/51 (86%)Overall: 93.6%
I’d call that a good start! Most of the week three preview will be paywalled, so subscribe today to get all the goodness for the rest of the season.