[NFL] Week 11 TNF Showdown: Commanders vs. Eagles
A look at the week 11 Thursday Night Showdown featuring the Commanders and Eagles
Tracker Update
I have not been playing the showdowns lately due to a loss of some interest, and the fact that there have been games with game-time decisions on key players. It is essentially impossible to build Showdown lineups when you don’t know if a key player is in or out, so I have just been avoiding those games. That is not the case tonight. Both teams are at full strength, so I’m going to play. Here’s the tracker update, although it has not been updated in awhile:
The double ups have gone nicely, and the tournaments are basically a wash.
I’m feeling real loose today, so I might throw down 20 tournament lineups or something. Although what always happens is that I get all juiced up for the game and then fall asleep in the third quarter, or I choose to not watch the game at all because my wife typically doesn’t care and would opt for Top Chef, but we’ll see what happens. This is certainly a very enticing game.
Game Environment
O/U: 48.5
Spread: Eagles -3.5
PHI O: -8% PROE, 5.7 Yds/Play, 8.3 Yds/Pass, 4.8 Yds/Rush
WAS O: -1% PROE, 5.9 Yds/Play, 8.1 Yds/Pass, 4.9 Yds/RushPHI D: 64% Pass% Against, 4.6 Yds/Play, 6.0 Yds/Pass, 4.3 Yds/Rush
WAS D: 56% Pass% Against, 5.4 Yds/Play, 7.2 Yds/Pass, 4.9 Yds/Rush
The Eagles are the best defense in the league this year in terms of fantasy points allowed per snap. Breaking it down by position:
Eagles DK Pts/Snap Allowed:
QBs: 0.250 (seventh-best)
RBs: 0.297 (third-best)
WRs: 0.200 (fourth-best)
TEs: 0.159 (11th-best)
The Commanders are a beatable defense:
Commanders DK Pts/Snap Allowed:
QBs: 0.298 (12th-best)
RBs: 0.374 (14th-worst)
WRs: 0.234 (10th-worst)
TEs: 0.203 (4th-worst)
The Eagles are a very good offense, and the Commanders are a beatable defense. I think we could see the Commanders playing from behind in this one.
There’s a nice same-game parlay boost on DraftKings, so we can take advantage of that and parlay my idea here into a bet.
→ Saquon Barkley Anytime TD -180
→ Jalen Hurts Anytime TD -105
→ Jayden Daniels Over 30.5 Pass Attempts -115
→ Terry McLaurin Over 70 Receiving Yards +125
That translates to +850, which DraftKings boosts to +1131. So my $10 would win $123.10. And if that hits, I can buy a case of Southern Tier Imperial Stout with no guilt.
Now, back to the Showdown.
Quarterbacks
There is very little doubt that both QBs are going to end up in the optimal.
Jalen Hurts ($11,000) has an unmatched ceiling at the quarterback position. He is fully back to 2023 form with the rushing touchdowns. After a slower start in that regard this year, he has scored eight rushing touchdowns in the last four games, and he’s added on six passing touchdowns to that. It would be incredibly foolish to not play the game, and it would probably even be foolish to not play him 100% of the time in tournament lineups.
Jayden Daniels ($10,400) has shown a high ceiling with his passing and rushing ability, but he has also shown a scary floor, scoring under ten points twice this year.
He is not nearly the same priority as Hurts, but it’s very hard to not play a dual-threat quarterback in a showdown.
Running Backs
Saquon Barkley ($10,600) crushed me in my main lineup last week. This barrage of Jalen Hurts rushing touchdowns has hurt him. Twice this year, he’s been under ten points, but he has gone for 30 or more on four occasions. Barkley is one of the best fantasy players in the league, but we cannot afford him, along with both QBs, and he is probably the odd man out in the cash lineup.
In tournaments, there’s an angle to using him as captain and then fading Jalen Hurts. That would work in the game where he scores all of the touchdowns for the Eagles. But you can certainly play Barkley and Hurts together.
On the Commanders’ side, we have Brian Robinson ($8,200) returning after missing two games. With Daniels running and Austin Ekeler ($8,000) functioning as a pass-down back, Robinson is a pretty easy fade in a single lineup build.
I would play Robinson in lineups where I don’t play Daniels. He could plug in a short touchdown or two, and that would take away from Daniels. But I’ll be pretty light on the Robinson ownership.
In games where Robinson was active, Ekeler has done this:
→ Week 1: 2-10-0, 4-52-0, 10.2 DraftKings points
→ Week 2: 8-38-0, 3-47-0, 11.5 DraftKings points
→ Week 3: 3-35-1, 2-22-1, 13.7 DraftKings points
→ Week 5: 6-67-0, 2-30-0, 11.7 DraftKings points
→ Week 7: 4-17-0, 2-3-0, 4.0 DraftKings points
→ Week 8: 7-52-0, 2-6-0, 7.8 DraftKings points
He does not get many handoffs, the passing game role is limited, and he is far from a priority in the red zone. He’s very easy to pass on, given that his price is high after playing two games without Robinson.
Pass Catchers
The Eagles have been without A.J. Brown ($10,000) a few times this year, so it’s not the clearest picture in the world. In games when Brown and DeVonta Smith ($8,600) have both been active:
→ Brown: 41 targets, 28-553-3, 14.6 ADoT
→ Smith: 31 targets, 23-332-3, 9.7 ADoT
Brown is much better, but the $1,400 price difference builds that in. There has not been a game where they both went over 20 points, so it’s a fair rule to only play one of them in each lineup. Between the two of them, they see 54% of the targets and 75% of the air yards, so we don’t want to play anybody else in this passing game in the cash lineup build.
In tournaments, Dallas Goedert ($6,600) is really the only other guy you can consider unless you’re playing some wild angle where somebody gets hurt right away, and then Jahan Dotson ($4,000) grabs a couple of balls.
Let’s move on to Washington. Here is how they operate:
Terry McLaurin ($9,000)
24% Tgt%, 47-711-6, 14.6 ADoT, 23% Tgt/Route, 2.4 Yds/RouteZach Ertz ($5,600)
20% Tgt%, 37-381-1, 7.7 ADoT, 20% Tgt/Route, 1.4 Yds/RouteNoah Brown ($6,200)
14% Tgt%, 25-351-1, 12.0 ADoT, 20% Tgt/Route, 1.8 Yds/RouteOlamide Zaccheaus ($3,000)
12% Tgt%, 22-232-0, 5.3 ADoT, 29% Tgt/Route, 2.1 Yds/Route
Zaccheaus (was a wee little man and a wee little man was he!) has good numbers on a per-route basis, but he does not play very much. He ran just five routes two weeks ago and 11 last week, so the passing game works through McLaurin, Ertz, and Brown.
I like the idea of getting Hurts + Daniels + McLaurin in the showdown lineup, but I am not 100% sure that’s how it will optimize.
Noah Brown has seen 19 targets in his last three games, so his role has been trending upward - and this is an elevated passing game spot, so I like him for the price.
Ertz has a nice target share for the price, but he basically just catches the ball and falls down. His best game of the season is still under 15 DraftKings points, and he has just one touchdown all year. HOWEVER, he does lead the team in red zone targets with 10, so you could play that angle. A 4-40-1 game is certainly in play, and that would be a nice score for the showdown.
The “Cash Game Player Pool”
Hurts $11,000
Daniels $10,400
Brown $10,000
McLaurin $9,000
Barkley $10,600
Brown $6,200
Ertz $5,600
Elliott $5,200 (Philly’s kicker)
Gonzalez $4,800 (Washington’s kicker)
The optimal lineup is:
CPT Jayden Daniels $15,600
FLEX Jalen Hurts $11,000
FLEX Saquon Barkley $10,600
FLEX AJ Brown $10,000
FLEX Luke McCaffrey $1,200
FLEX Dyami Brown $1,600
I did not see that coming, but I can’t say I don’t like it. You are basically punting away two spots, but you get the four highest projections in the game, and this is a game with two concentrated offenses. I also don’t think this will be duplicated a million times like other cash game lineups, so I’m excited about this one.
Tournament Builds
CPT Barkley
Daniels
McLaurin
Smith
Z Gonzalez
McCaffrey
This plays the angle that Barkley soaks up all of the touchdowns, the Eagles dominate the game, and force Daniels into a bunch of throws toward McLaurin. That angle would in a way assume that AJ Brown doesn’t have a huge game, so I’ll play DeVonta Smith. A less aggressive attack from the Eagles favors Smith.
CPT McLaurin
Hurts
AJ Brown
Daniels
Eagles D
Bates
This angle is that this game turns into a shootout and both WR1’s have big games. We bring their QBs along with them, and take the Eagles defense. That would work if the Eagles DST scores a touchdown and speeds up the Washington pass game.
CPT Hurts
Daniels
AJ Brown
Noah Brown
Ertz
McCaffrey
This one imagines another 3-4 touchdown game from Hurts. That sends Barkley to the backseat and elevates AJ Brown. Then we take three non-McLaurin pass catchers on the Washington side in addition to their QB.
More Bets
Since I just looked deeply into both teams, I have a feel for a few bets.
Zach Ertz First TD Scorer +1900
This gives you a 20:1 return on your bet. It’s very unlikely to happen, of course, but we did learn that Ertz has gotten a bunch of looks in the red zone this year. If a few of those would have turned into touchdowns, you’d see a lower line here.
Jalen Hurts Under 9.5 Rush Attempts -115
The Eagles are fully healthy and should be able to move the ball here, to me that suggests that Hurts might just be able to sit back and throw the ball. With Barkley in the fold, Hurts running is not a priority for them. That said, he’s gone over 9.5 attempts five out of nine times, so the -115 line seems right on.
Eagles -4, -112
I think they are the more well-rounded team, so I’m happy to take the home team here with just a four-point spread.
That’s it! Thanks for checking out this post!