[NFL] Week 2 TNF Showdown: Bills vs. Dolphins
A look at the week two Thursday Night Showdown featuring the Bills and Dolphins
Tracker Update
I am 3/4 in Double ups and 2/4 for the big $15 million dollar contest, with both of those hits being minimum cash.
That puts me at a 25% ROI overall. Good start. I am starting to wonder if it’s a better idea to not do the tournament, but we’ll keep that going for this week and see where we’re at.
One thing I noticed Monday night was that in $5 double ups, there was a lot of overlay. That means the contests didn’t fill, but DraftKings guarantees those prizes so more than the normal percentage of people cashed. DraftKings lost money on those contests, and that’s huge for us. So, I’ll be on the lookout for those chances moving forward. It makes sense that not many people are playing these $5 Double Ups on Showdown slates - only weirdos like me want to grind out a $5 profit.
Game Environment
Game OU: 48
Moneyline: Dolphins -142, Bills +120
Spread: Dolphins -2.5
This is our first showdown with 2024 data to look at!
Bills:
Pass%: 53.3%
PROE: -12.6% (third-lowest)
Pace Rank: 20th
Dolphins:
Pass%: 63.4%
PROE: -5.3% (18th)
Pace Rank: 15th
Last year:
Week 4: Bills 48-20
Week 18: Bills 21-14
The Bills have a much different offense than a year ago, while the Dolphins are pretty much the same. The Miami backfield is banged up with Raheem Mostert out and De’Von Achane listed as questionable. Let’s get into the plays, but first, you’ll have to be a paid subscriber!