[NFL] Week 3 MNF Showdown: Falcons vs. Eagles
A look at the week two Monday Night Showdown featuring the Falcons and Eagles
Tracker Update
I’m going to take some liberties here. Maybe I shouldn’t do this, but I’m going to anyway! I am not counting that Thursday Night Game in the tracker. The De’Von Achane injury uncertainty made it impossible to actually use projections for the lineup. We were just totally guessing. I pulled what lineups I could out of it, but yeah, the lineup I came up with was a big loser because it faded Achane, as I wrote about here. I will be skipping showdowns with major players being uncertain due to an injury moving forward.
I didn’t get the analysis or lineup out last night. It’s tough for me to write on Sundays, but the lineup did cash in the double-up and fall short in the $15 tournament. We’re at a 25% ROI on the tracker now, but a nice 60% mark in double ups:
Let’s get into this game tonight, but I’m taking it behind the paywall.
Game Environment
Over/Under: 45.5
Moneyline: Eagles -238, Falcons +195
Spread: Eagles -5.5
The Eagles ran 75 plays in week one with a -2.8 PROE and ranked sixth in pace. The Falcons managed just 55 plays with a -9.7% PROE, but were #5 in pace.
It’s pretty hard to know who the Falcons will be this year with their new QB and just one game of data. The Steelers’ defense gave them trouble in that first game. I’d imagine they look a bit better tonight after getting that first game out of the way.
Quarterbacks
Jalen Hurts ($10,000) is a Showdown lock. He threw for 278 yards and two touchdowns last week and 33 yards with his legs. The rushing TD upside isn’t quite as big as last year, maybe, but it’s still clearly there. They will love to give him the ball if they get to a first and goal near the one.
Kirk Cousins ($9,000) is less of a lock. Again, hard to judge one game, but he didn’t look good at all in week one, with just 155 yards on 25 attempts and two interceptions. He won’t run, so this is the QB type we can maybe avoid, but again - we’ve been seeing 2 QBs every time in the projected optimal lineup. That’s just the nature of the game.
Running Backs
We have two stud backs in this one.
Bijan Robinson ($10,400) in week one:
45 of 50 snaps
23 of 26 RB touches (18 carries, 5 catches)
18-68-0 rushing, 5-43-0 receiving
That is incredible usage for him. He looks like one of the best fantasy options in the league, so we’ll want to get him in the lineup.
Saquon Barkley ($10,600) in week one:
60 of 74 snaps
26 of 28 RB touches (24 carries, 2 catches)
24-109-2 rushing, 2-23-1 receiving
He certainly saw the positive side of touchdown variation, but it was a smash week one with 36.2 points.
I doubt we can play both QBs with both RBs here. We’re going to have to make a choice. Neither RB is downgraded to the game environment. Being an underdog works just fine for Bijan with his role in the passing game. Being a favorite work nicely for Barkley, but we still have that wrinkle where his touchdown projection gets bumped down by Hurts’ short-yardage prowess.
We’ll see what the projections say, but these guys are both awesome plays.
Pass Catchers
Falcons Week One:
Drake London ($7,800)
50 of 50 snaps, 28 routes, 3 targets, 2-15-0 receivingKyle Pitts ($6,800)
48 of 50 snaps, 28 routes, 3 targets, 3-26-1 receivingDarnell Mooney ($5,400)
47 of 50 snaps, 28 routes, 3 targets, 1-15-0 receivingRay-Ray McLoud ($3,000)
24 of 50 snaps, 19 routes, 7 targets, 4-52-0 receiving
Those seven targets for McLoud might have people playing McLoud. I don’t think that’s a great idea. He wasn’t on the field very much; that would seem to just be randomness - but we’ll see. If we really need a play for $3,000 - it’ll be him.
The week one data means less for the Eagles this week because of the big injury development with AJ Brown being out. That shakes things up quite a bit. But, let’s look at the numbers anyway.
DeVonta Smith ($8,800)
74 of 74 snaps, 39 routes, 8 targets, 7-84-0A.J. Brown
71 of 74 snaps, 39 routes, 10 targets, 5-119-1Dallas Goedert ($5,800)
60 of 74 snaps, 30 routes, 5 targets, 4-31-0Jahan Dotson ($4,000)
30 of 74 snaps, 24 routes, 1 target, 0-0-0Johnny Wilson ($1,000)
10 of 74 snaps, 5 routes, 1 target, 0-0-0
Brown being out doesn’t feel like a great thing for Smith to me. Brown being the over-the-top threat might open things up for Smith underneath to rack up those easy catches. He will have to go out wide more now, and he’ll get more attention. I wouldn’t say he’s a must-play by any means here at the $8,800 tag
The question is - who benefits the most from Brown’s absence? The answer might be Saquon Barkley. But it’s unclear. I can’t say I want to play Dotson or Wilson, and Goedert doesn’t really fit as a Brown replacement either—tough spot to be in. Luckily, we let the projections make our decisions here, so I don’t have to think too much about it.
PAYWALL TIME.