[NFL] Week 4 TNF Showdown: Jets vs. Patriots
A look at the week three Thursday Night Showdown featuring the Jets and Patriots
Tracker Update
Last Monday Night went great. I went with a bunch of $2 Double Ups instead of a big $25 one, and it finished in the top 10% there, and I doubled my money in the big million-dollar contest as well.
Tonight we see the Jets again, this time in New England.
Game Environment
Over/Under: 38.5
Spread: Jets -6
The Patriots have a low -10.5% PROE with Jacoby Brissett as their quarterback this year. So they’d prefer to run, and they play very slow (29th in pace).
The Jets have the seventh-highest PROE in the league, basically at 0%. Their pace is 17th. The total shows us that this should be a pretty slow and low-scoring game. Totals are down across the league as teams are moving more toward the run, it seems, so 38.5 might not be as bad as it seems, but this is a showdown, so it doesn’t really matter.
Quarterbacks
Aaron Rodgers ($10,000) is not the most appealing QB for us in the fantasy game. He has thrown for 167 and 176 yards in his two games so far this year with a 3:1 TD:INT. He has zero rushing yards. In a situation where you’re going for first place and making a bunch of lineups, he would not be someone you’d want to play in all of your lineups. But as the QB on the team that is expected to win, he’ll probably end up in my lineup here.
Jacoby Brissett ($9,000) has scored 10.6 and 8.0 fantasy points this year, which is terrible. He’s thrown for just 270 yards and one touchdown, but at least he hasn’t thrown an interception. I don’t think there’s much ceiling here against the Jets. It’s a brutal spot for the Patriots, I think the lineup is going to be pretty one-sided.
Running Backs
We have two backs here that have very strong roles. Breece Hall ($11,800) has 31 carries and 12 catches through two games. That’s really all we have to say, he’s a lock here.
Braelon Allen ($5,200) is the backup for Hall. He saw just two touches in week one, but that came up to nine touches last week. I don’t think that’s enough for $5,200. If you are gunning to win a million dollars, you could make the play where you put him in captain and fade Hall. That would work in the event that Hall would leave the game early on. But that’s not how I’m playing it.
Rhamondre Stevenson ($11,400) is almost as expensive as Hall, which is pretty nuts, but he does have 46 attempts and five catches through two games while adding two touchdowns. So he’s been quite good. There’s no way we play him instead of Hall, but I could see ramming both of these guys in there.
Antonio Gibson ($3,600) is the backup for Stevenson. He’s been more of a pass-catching back in the past, but he has just one target through two games so far and played just 29 snaps. There’s a good chance he gets a bit more work in this game as the Patriots play catch-up. He’s not a good play, but he could grab a couple of catches in addition to 5-10 carries and have a nice day for the price.
Pass Catchers
Garrett Wilson ($10,200) is the most expensive non-running back on the slate. He’s had a bit of a slow start (10-117-0), but leads the team in targets with 17 and has a decent 9.2 ADoT. The catch rate has been very low at 59%, and we would have to think that would come up in a hurry.
Allen Lazard ($5,800) had the big week one with a 6-89-2 line, but last week the performance was more as expected at just 2-11-0 on four targets.
Mike Williams ($6,200) is still not fully recovered from his knee surgery last year. He’s getting eased into things. He played 36 snaps last week and made his first catch of the year, but we can’t pay this tag for a guy who isn’t playing a full role yet and has just one target on the year.
Tyler Conklin ($2,800) is second on the team in routes run but has earned just four targets on those 56 routes for a very bad 7% Tgt/Route. That price tag works, though, and he’s a decent building block guy, so we can get the big names all in the lineup together with one of them as the captain.
The Patriots are led in routes and targets by Hunter Henry ($7,800). And that is not a good sign for them. Henry is a decent pass-catching tight end, but he is not someone you want your offense to run through. In week one, he went just 2-18-0 before the big 8-109-0 last week. The floor is too low to play at $7,800 here even if he does project for 5+ targets.
There are no good plays on the Patriots besides maybe Stevenson, but he feels too expensive to fit in the lineup we’re making.
The paywall goes first, followed by the projections and the lineup I’ll be using.