[NFL] Week 5 TNF Showdown: Bucs vs. Falcons
A look at the week three Sunday Night Showdown featuring the Falcons and Chiefs
Tracker Update
The cold streak continued on Monday. We lost one of them outright and about split the second. Still +16% ROI on the year, so let’s hope it moves up a bit after tonight.
Game Environment
We have a total of 43.5 with the Falcons being a 2.5-point favorite. It’s a big divisional game, so this is a pretty good one to watch from a real-life perspective. I feel like Kirk Cousins has been on prime time at least four times already. The NFL is really pumping him up. Great guy though.
I’m going to be a bit more brief here today. I know you people are just here for the lineup.
Falcons
The 4:4 TD:INT on Kirk Cousins this year is bad. His estimated points added per play is zero. So he’s been a completely neutral QB this year. I don’t think that’s what the Falcons were hoping for, but there are a lot of weapons here - so you would think they could improve as they all get more and more familiar with each other.
Bijan Robinson has 55 rushes and 15 catches while his backup Tyler Allgeier is at just 27 and three. Robinson hasn’t had the huge game yet, but it’s coming with his ability and that workload.
The targets have been pretty spread out: London (32), Mooney (24), McCloud (15), Robinson (15), Pitts (8), Allgeier (3), Woerner (1)
London is at the top, and then it’s basically a two-way tie for second with Mooney and McCloud. In one of the more confusing pricing moves of the season, DraftKings has put McCloud at $3400, nearly $3000 less than Mooney, while he has basically the same stats and role. McCloud will be in pretty much every double up lineup tonight, I would imagine. I don’t want to fade Bijan because of that crazy ceiling he has, so those two are priorities for me.
Bucs
The backfield is a split as far as the carries go, here are the carries by week:
→ White: 15, 10, 6, 10
→ Irving: 9, 7, 9, 10
Irving has been the much more effective runner at 5.8 yards per carry while White is at 2.8. White has stayed relevant by catching 14 balls in four games. Neither guy is a particularly good play, but they’re both pretty cheap at $6,800 (White) and $6,400 (Irving).
The two big wide receivers:
→ Godwin: 34 targets, 26% Tgt/Route, 27-322-3, .1 ADoT
→ Evans: 29 targets, 23% Tgt/Route, 18-214-3, 9.7 ADoT
Godwin is at $10,000 and Evans is at $10,200 - making them pretty tough to afford here. It’s very likely that one of them will fail pretty bad at that price. Let’s check the score logs:
They both put up the big number in week one, but the other three weeks it’s just been one of them. You can’t afford them both, so you just have to hope that you pick the right one if you’re going there.
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