[NFL] Week 8 TNF Showdown: Steelers vs. Giants
A look at the week eight Monday Night Showdown featuring the Steelers and Giants
Tracker Update
I didn’t end up playing Thursday because of the Nacua news that threw everything through a loop, so the tracker once again remains the same.
Game Analysis
My family and I are Steeler bros, so I’m pretty into this one. We will put the kids to bed, I will pour a strong whiskey and coke, and will enjoy this game. And I’ll have a Showdown lineup to track.
We have a 36.5-point total here, with the Steelers coming in as a six-point favorite. My initial impulse is to say to go for the Giants +6 and the over 36.5.
Let’s take a look at both teams.
Steelers
Last week, the Steelers debuted Russell Wilson ($9,600) - and things went pretty well. They beat the Jets with relative ease, and Russ piled up 264 yards on 29 attempts. His ADoT was a bit higher than what we saw from Fields at 8.2 yards. He did plug in a one-yard touchdown run, but watching the game - he was not willing to take off, so we shouldn’t expect much for the rushing yards.
Is he a great QB to play for DFS purposes? No. Is he good enough to make a Showdown lineup? Probably.
From weeks 1-6, the Steelers ran it 46% of the time with a -9% PROE. Last week, it was a 52% run rate with a -7.5% PROE. They were ahead for most of the second half, so they didn’t need to throw. The PROE should come down with Wilson at QB, but that’s mostly just because those designed QB run plays won’t be called.
Najee Harris ($9,200) has had two very nice games in a row now:
Week 6 vs. LVR: 14-106-1, 2-16-0
Week 7 vs. NYJ: 21-102-1, 0-0-0
Jaylen Warren ($7,200) saw his highest usage last week:
33 snaps, 19 routes, 12-44-0 rushing, 2-15-0 receiving
He’s been banged up for most of the season, so he should be more and more of a factor in this offense. I don’t think we can play Warren in this Showdown. Harris is in play. If the Steelers win this game handily, he’ll see his 15-25 carries and get the goalline work.
The biggest change for the Steelers last week was the resurrection of these pass catchers.
George Pickens ($9,800) saw nine targets and grabbed five of them for 111 yards and a score. He saw three red zone targets and leads this team by a mile in red zone targets on the year with 10 of the team’s 25.
The floor is low, but the ceiling is extremely high. He will see several shots down-field, and the guy is very, very good.
The rest of Wilson’s targets were divvied up like this:
Darnell Washington ($2,800): 4
Calvin Austin ($3,000): 4
Van Jefferson ($4,000): 3
Pat Freiermuth ($6,200): 3
Jaylen Warren ($7,200): 3
Najee Harris ($9,200): 1
I wouldn’t want to play any of those guys. On the Steelers side, I’m looking at Russ + Harris + Pickens, along with Chris Boswell and maybe even the defense.
Giants
This is a tough challenge for the Giants against this Steelers defense. Daniel Jones ($9,400) is going to be under a lot of pressure. Jones has been better this year, but still shows this crazy low floor. He’s been under a dozen fantasy points in four of his seven games with a season-high of just 22 points (that’s the only time he’s gone over 20). The Steelers have not allowed a single QB over 20 fantasy points this year, so Jones is probably a fade.
All of that bad news is bad news for Malik Nabers ($10,000) just the same. That said, he’s been able to score 12, 32, 28, 26, and 8 fantasy points while Jones has struggled. He has at least seven targets in each game and is averaging a dozen. That’s right, he’s averaging a dozen targets. He’s gotta be in the lineup.
The Steelers are quite good at shutting down the alpha WR. That’s not enough for me to fade Nabers, but it does make me want to pair Nabers with Wan’Dale Robinson ($7,800). He has 9.6 targets per game and at least five catches in six of his seven games. The floor is nice there. I think the play is to get both of these Giants wide receivers in the lineup.
Tyrone Tracy ($4,400) thrived in the absence of Devin Singletary ($8,400), and that earned him a role last week even when Singletary returned. Last week:
Singletary: 12 snaps, 6 routes, 5-18-0, 1-3-0
Tracy: 37 snaps, 27 routes, 6-23-0, 3-9-0
Both of them busted pretty hard, but you saw the $4,000 price difference above - Tracy is mispriced.
Now, let’s move on to the projections and the optimal lineup.