[NFL] Week 9 MNF Showdown: Bucs vs. Chiefs
A look at the week nine Monday Night Showdown featuring the Bucs and Chiefs
Tracker Update
Thursday Night was a loser, so here’s the updated tracker:
Game Analysis
O/U: 45.5
Spread: Chiefs -8.5
I could see this being a pretty fun game. It’s too bad that the Bucs are without their two main offensive weapons Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. I think they could have potentially had a shot here, but they still put up 26 points last week - so it’s a capable offense.
The Chiefs are a beastly defense and they have an offense that gets it done when it’s needed. They’re incredibly tough to beat, especially at home, so we’re likely looking at the Chiefs moving to 8-0.
Quarterbacks
Patrick Mahomes ($10,000) has never not made the optimal projected showdown lineup. He has been remarkably consistent this year, and that’s not a good thing for fantasy purposes.
He’s had a very tight distribution in scoring between 12 and 18 points. And yet tonight, he once again projects for 20+ points. The Bucs have given up the second-most fantasy points per snap to opposing QBs, and you just can’t find a 12-point floor from many people in a Showdown slate. So he’ll get in there.
The spread is good for Baker Mayfield ($9,600), who has been one of the best fantasy quarterbacks in the game this year.
He did fine last week in the first game without his top two WRs, but there’s no doubt that those injuries hurt him. The Chiefs have given up the 14th-most points per snap to QBs and the third-most overall as they force teams to pass late in games. Both quarterbacks are firmly in play.
Running Backs
It’s been the Kareem Hunt ($9,800) show since he was signed. He’s played three games with full snap counts and has scored 22, 22, and 13 fantasy points in those games. He has taken 70 of the 85 running back carries, averaging 3.4 yards per carry. He has not functioned much in the passing game with just a 4-24-0 line in three games. The reason to play him is the touches and the touchdowns, of which he has four in these three full-time games.
On the Bucs side, it’s a two-headed monster. Over the last two games:
→ Irving: 18-67-1, 10-94-0
→ White: 16-69-0, 11-109-3
Both guys are getting a ton of work in the passing game, and that makes them both valuable despite the split in work. Irving is banged up and marked as questionable, but it was the same situation last week, and he played through it.
The key point here is that the Chiefs are the toughest team in the league to run on. They’ve given up just 95 fantasy points to running backs all year, the least in the league, and they’re giving up fewer than three yards per carry. We would think the Bucs would be passing a ton here. That would usually take us away from the running backs, but not in this offense - because these two are key parts in the passing game. Bucky Irving is at $7,200 and Rachaad White is $200 higher at $7,400. It is tough to choose which one, but I’d lean towards White with his longer history of competency as a pass catcher.
Pass Catchers
The Bucs last week:
→ Otton: 10 targets, 9-81-2, 4.4 ADoT
→ McMillan: 7 targets, 4-35-0, 13.6 ADoT
→ Irving: 7 targets, 7-40-1, -3 ADoT
→ White: 6 targets, 5-38-1, 2 ADoT
→ Shepard: 5 targets, 3-18-0, 7.6 ADoT
→ Miller: 5 targets, 3-19-0, 11.2 ADoT
→ Jarrett: 3 targets, 3-58-0, 17 ADoT
→ Palmer: 2 targets, 2-29-0, 13 ADoT
That looked almost like a “tryout” as they were giving a bunch of guys looks to see who they should use moving forward. The snap rates favored Otton (93%), McMillan (80%), Palmer (69%), and Shepard (63%). So I would stick to those four. The prices are:
→ Otton $8,400
→ McMillan: $6,200
→ Shepard $5,600
→ Palmer $4,000
I think Palmer is my favorite play there. He is the cheapest by far and was out there a lot; he just didn’t see the targets come his way.
On the Chiefs’ side, here’s the data since week four after the Rashee Rice injury changed their approach.
→ Kelce: 26% Tgt%, 26% Tgt/Route, 1.9 Yds/Route, 6.9 ADoT
→ Worthy: 22% Tgt%, 22% Tgt/Route, 1.3 Yds/Route, 11.2 ADoT
→ Gray: 11% Tgt%, 18% Tgt/Route, 2.2 Yds/Route, 6.9 ADoT
→ Smith-Schuster: 7% Tgt%, 28% Tgt/Route, 4.4 Yds/Route, 6.3 ADoT
In their last game, 60% of the targets went to Travis Kelce ($8,800) and Xavier Worthy ($8,200). That’s all good news for Worthy. He hasn’t had a big game since week one, when he scored those two touchdowns, but he’s getting acclimated, and the workload is increasing.
I think the “must-plays” here are Mahomes, Mayfield, and Kelce. But let’s see what the optimal says.