[NFL] Week 9 TNF Showdown: Texans vs. Jets
A look at the week nine Thursday Night Showdown featuring the Texans and Jets
Tracker Update
Tyrone Tracy took us to the promised land last Monday, so the tracker has a positive update.
Game Analysis
O/U: 42.5
Spread: Jets -2
The Jets are approaching must-win territory. They have a good roster but a bad record. Tonight, they face a banged-up Texans team that is now missing their top two wide receivers.
Here is where the defenses line up:
Both are pretty strong units on a per-play basis. That’s the reason for the lower O/U in this game. Both offenses are capable of scoring points. Let’s get into it.
Quarterbacks
We have a couple of pocket passers in this game. That gives you some lower floors.
Aaron Rodgers ($9,000):
The ceiling isn’t high, but he’se scored double-digit points in all but one game, and that’s valuable on a Showdown for $9,000.
C.J. Stroud ($10,000):
His numbers have been down without Nico Collins around, and now he’s up against the wall even more without Diggs either. The Texans will likely go run-heavy tonight, especially because the Jets are pretty tough to throw on. Rodgers is the preferred QB play for $1,000 cheaper - but both guys make sense, as usual, in the Showdown format.
Running Backs
Breece Hall ($10,400) is the slate’s highest projected player. He did give up more work (including a touchdown) than he had been to Braelon Allen ($4,400) last week. But he’s the main guy, and he’s one of the best running backs in the league in terms of pass game involvement. I don’t think we can fade Hall in our single lineup tonight.
Joe Mixon ($11,000) is the most expensive player on the slate, but that’s because he’s been one of the most efficient fantasy point scorers in the league this year.
He has scored six touchdowns in five games, and he didn’t even play full games in two of those. The price is high, and I think he’s going to have some pretty poor games - but it’s risky to fade a running back with this kind of role.
Pass Catchers
The Jets since Davante Adams ($9,800) showed up:
→ Garrett Wilson: 18 targets, 10-174-0, 14.8 ADoT, 26.5% TPRR
→ Davante Adams: 15 targets, 7-84-0, 6.7 ADoT, 22% TPRR
→ Tyler Conklin: 8 targets, 7-49-2, 5.1 ADoT, 15% TPRR
Allen Lazard missed last week and will miss again tonight. So the pass game flows through these three and Breece Hall. Garrett Wilson ($9,600) seems to be the better play than Adams, and Tyler Conklin ($5,600) is a non-awful value-ish option (although I wouldn’t pay that for Conklin).
The Texans, as mentioned, are missing their top two receivers. That makes Tank Dell ($9,200) their main guy, with Dalton Schultz ($7,000) expecting an expanded role and Xavier Hutchinson ($4,000), John Metchie ($2,800), and Robert Woods ($3,000) competing for the rest of the targets. That’s a pretty tough group to project.
So, let’s get to those projections and the optimal lineup, below the paywall!