NFL Weekly Notes - Week 5
A weekly statistical summary of the most recent NFL week, brought to you every Monday and updated on Tuesday with the MNF game data.
Tip Jar below if you’re really enjoying the free NFL content!
Another week in the books! I’m back, and I’ve managed to complete this whole notes piece adding in my analysis for each game. Check it out below!
Team Pass Rate Over Expectation
Top 5 Teams
WAS: 68 Plays, 83.8% Pass%, 74.3% xPass%, 9.5% Pass% OE
CIN: 78 Plays, 62.8% Pass%, 56.2% xPass%, 6.6% Pass% OE
KAN: 63 Plays, 66.7% Pass%, 62.6% xPass%, 4.1% Pass% OE
LAR: 55 Plays, 74.5% Pass%, 70.9% xPass%, 3.6% Pass% OE
MIA: 52 Plays, 57.7% Pass%, 54.3% xPass%, 3.4% Pass% OE
Bottom 5 Teams
NYG: 68 Plays, 57.4% Pass%, 81.3% xPass%, -23.9% Pass% OE
IND: 60 Plays, 45.0% Pass%, 66.7% xPass%, -21.7% Pass% OE
NYJ: 62 Plays, 48.4% Pass%, 67.8% xPass%, -19.4% Pass% OE
NOR: 66 Plays, 42.4% Pass%, 61.0% xPass%, -18.6% Pass% OE
DEN: 57 Plays, 59.6% Pass%, 76.4% xPass%, -16.8% Pass% OE
Target Share Leaders
Ja'Marr Chase (CIN), 19 Targets, 43.2% Tgt Share
DJ Moore (CHI), 10 Targets, 40.0% Tgt Share
Adam Thielen (CAR), 13 Targets, 37.1% Tgt Share
Darren Waller (NYG), 11 Targets, 36.7% Tgt Share
Jaylen Waddle (MIA), 10 Targets, 35.7% Tgt Share
Cooper Kupp (LAR), 12 Targets, 35.3% Tgt Share
Marquise Brown (ARI), 10 Targets, 33.3% Tgt Share
DeAndre Hopkins (TEN), 11 Targets, 32.4% Tgt Share
Puka Nacua (LAR), 11 Targets, 32.4% Tgt Share
Tyreek Hill (MIA), 9 Targets, 32.1% Tgt Share
Air Yards - Totals
George Pickens (PIT), 196 Air Yards, 19.6 ADoT
Stefon Diggs (BUF), 182 Air Yards, 16.5 ADoT
DeAndre Hopkins (TEN), 173 Air Yards, 15.7 ADoT
Zay Flowers (BAL), 168 Air Yards, 15.3 ADoT
Ja'Marr Chase (CIN), 154 Air Yards, 8.1 ADoT
Marquise Brown (ARI), 143 Air Yards, 14.3 ADoT
Cooper Kupp (LAR), 137 Air Yards, 11.4 ADoT
A.J. Brown (PHI), 135 Air Yards, 16.9 ADoT
Michael Thomas (NOR), 126 Air Yards, 18.0 ADoT
Puka Nacua (LAR), 126 Air Yards, 11.5 ADoT
ADoT Leaders - 5 Target Minimum
Kendrick Bourne (NWE), 5 Tgt, 116 Air Yards, 23.2 ADoT
George Pickens (PIT), 10 Tgt, 196 Air Yards, 19.6 ADoT
Michael Thomas (NOR), 7 Tgt, 126 Air Yards, 18.0 ADoT
Michael Gallup (DAL), 5 Tgt, 88 Air Yards, 17.6 ADoT
Chris Olave (NOR), 5 Tgt, 87 Air Yards, 17.4 ADoT
Nelson Agholor (BAL), 5 Tgt, 85 Air Yards, 17.0 ADoT
A.J. Brown (PHI), 8 Tgt, 135 Air Yards, 16.9 ADoT
Stefon Diggs (BUF), 11 Tgt, 182 Air Yards, 16.5 ADoT
DeAndre Hopkins (TEN), 11 Tgt, 173 Air Yards, 15.7 ADoT
Terry McLaurin (WAS), 5 Tgt, 78 Air Yards, 15.6 ADoT
Touch Leaders
Travis Etienne (JAX), 27 Rushes, 4 Rec, 31 Touches
Joe Mixon (CIN), 25 Rushes, 4 Rec, 29 Touches
Alvin Kamara (NOR), 22 Rushes, 3 Rec, 25 Touches
Zack Moss (IND), 23 Rushes, 2 Rec, 25 Touches
Breece Hall (NYJ), 22 Rushes, 3 Rec, 25 Touches
D'Andre Swift (PHI), 17 Rushes, 6 Rec, 23 Touches
Dameon Pierce (HOU), 20 Rushes, 1 Rec, 21 Touches
David Montgomery (DET), 19 Rushes, 2 Rec, 21 Touches
Christian McCaffrey (SFO), 19 Rushes, 2 Rec, 21 Touches
Isiah Pacheco (KAN), 16 Rushes, 1 Rec, 17 Touches
Game-by-Game Breakdowns
CHI vs. WAS
CHI: 64 Plays, 50.0% Pass%, 54.0% xPass%, -4.0% Pass% OE
WAS: 68 Plays, 83.8% Pass%, 74.3% xPass%, 9.5% Pass% OE
Bears
They just dominated this game from the beginning, putting 40 points on the board and quickly taking a double-digit lead. They went for 7.0 yards per play, 9.7 yards per pass attempt and 5.6 per rush. Beautifully done by the Bears who have played very well on offense two straight weeks now.
Fields: 15/29 (52% Comp%), 282 yards, 4 TD, 0 INT, 9.2 ADoT
He added on to that 11 carries for 57 yards on the ground for a huge fantasy game above 40 points.
As for the running backs, it was ugly. Both Khalil Herbert and Roschon Johnson got hurt, opening up eight carries for Khari Blasingame. That’s not what the Bears want, but we’ll have to wait and see the injury reports for next week to make any sense out of that.
The passing game was really concentrated. You can see above that Fields only completed 15 passes.
Targets: Moore (10), Kmet (5), Herbert (3), Tonyan (2)
Only three players made a catch (Herbert didn’t catch any of those targets). DJ Moore was extraordinarily efficient with a 10-230-3 line that was one of the best games we’ll see from a receiver all year. Cole Kmet had a good game as well with a 5-42-1 line.
Commanders
They fell behind big early and were forced to the air. At the end of the day it was a pretty good box score game for Sam Howell
37/52, 388 yards, 2 TD, 1 INT
That’s a really high 71% completion percentage on a moderate 7.4 ADoT. He was sacked five times, so that continues to be an issue.
They were only able to run the ball 11 times: Robinson (6),Howell (5), so there’s nothing to talk about there.
Targets: Thomas (9), Samuel (6), McLaurin (4), Gibson (4), Robinson (4), Dotson (3), Bates (2), Crowder (2), Brown/Turner/Pringle (1)
Howell got the ball to the middle of the field guys a lot, and that hurt the fantasy games for McLaurin and Dotson.
Overall, I don’t think we’re viewing either of these teams any differently because of this game - besides being a step more confident that the Bears can keep Fields & Moore as a QB1 and a WR2 moving forward.
Touches & Touch Share Leaders
Justin Fields (CHI), 11 Rushes, 0 Rec, 11 Touches, 23.4% Touch Shr
Khalil Herbert (CHI), 10 Rushes, 0 Rec, 10 Touches, 21.3% Touch Shr
Brian Robinson (WAS), 6 Rushes, 4 Rec, 10 Touches, 20.8% Touch Shr
Logan Thomas (WAS), 0 Rushes, 9 Rec, 9 Touches, 18.8% Touch Shr
Khari Blasingame (CHI), 8 Rushes, 0 Rec, 8 Touches, 17.0% Touch Shr
DJ Moore (CHI), 0 Rushes, 8 Rec, 8 Touches, 17.0% Touch Shr
Target Share Leaders
DJ Moore (CHI), 10 Tgts, 40.0 Tgt%
Logan Thomas (WAS), 11 Tgts, 22.9 Tgt%
Cole Kmet (CHI), 5 Tgts, 20.0 Tgt%
Darnell Mooney (CHI), 4 Tgts, 16.0 Tgt%
Curtis Samuel (WAS), 7 Tgts, 14.6 Tgt%
Antonio Gibson (WAS), 6 Tgts, 12.5 Tgt%
Air Yards Share Leaders
DJ Moore (CHI), 115 Air Yds, 43.2 Air Yd%
Darnell Mooney (CHI), 95 Air Yds, 35.7 Air Yd%
Terry McLaurin (WAS), 78 Air Yds, 20.2 Air Yd%
Logan Thomas (WAS), 73 Air Yds, 18.9 Air Yd%
Curtis Samuel (WAS), 67 Air Yds, 17.4 Air Yd%
Dyami Brown (WAS), 46 Air Yds, 11.9 Air Yd%
Rush Share Leaders
Brian Robinson (WAS), 6 Rushes, 54.5 Rush%
Sam Howell (WAS), 5 Rushes, 45.5 Rush%
Justin Fields (CHI), 11 Rushes, 34.4 Rush%
Khalil Herbert (CHI), 10 Rushes, 31.2 Rush%
Khari Blasingame (CHI), 8 Rushes, 25.0 Rush%
Roschon Johnson (CHI), 3 Rushes, 9.4 Rush%
Red Zone Targets
Cole Kmet (CHI), 3 RZ Tgts, 50.0 RZ Tgt%
Logan Thomas (WAS), 2 RZ Tgts, 50.0 RZ Tgt%
DJ Moore (CHI), 2 RZ Tgts, 33.3 RZ Tgt%
Curtis Samuel (WAS), 1 RZ Tgts, 25.0 RZ Tgt%
Dyami Brown (WAS), 1 RZ Tgts, 25.0 RZ Tgt%
Darnell Mooney (CHI), 1 RZ Tgts, 16.7 RZ Tgt%
Goal Line (inside the 5) Carries
Sam Howell (WAS), 1 GL Carries, 100.0 GL Carry%
JAX vs. BUF
BUF: 54 Plays, 75.9% Pass%, 78.7% xPass%, -2.8% Pass% OE
JAX: 82 Plays, 51.2% Pass%, 59.5% xPass%, -8.3% Pass% OE
Jaguars
They led the week in plays run and split the pass/run 60/40 - which is about what the league does these days.
Trevor Lawrence was good (8.5 YPA, 315 yards, 1:0 TD:INT), but this offense ran through Travis Etienne (31 touches, 27 carries, four catches). He ran for two touchdowns and is now second in the league in touches with 114 (behind CMC at 119).
Targets: Engram (8), Kirk (8), Ridley (8), Jones (5), Etienne (5). There are now five pass catchers on this offense with 18+ targets this year, and that 18 is Zay Jones who missed two games. Lots of mouths to feed there, that’s good for the team generally, but not great for any of these individual WR/TEs.
Tgt/Route: Kirk (29%), Engram (22%), Jones (22%), Ridley (19%), Etienne (15%). So that shows again that this is a very evenly spread pass game, but Kirk is well above the rest of them in yards per route run (2.23).
Bills
Josh Allen struggled in the first half, I think… or at least they didn’t score a touchdown until late in the first half (I wasn’t watching, obviously). But he mounted a comeback late and ended up with 359 pass yards and a strong 8.8 YPA with a 2:1 TD:INT.
They pretty much ditched the run with James Cook getting five carries to lead the team. Really ba dgame for him with -4 rush yards and just a 3-25-0 line through the air.
Targets: Diggs (11), Davis (8), Knox (6), Cook (4), Shakir/Harris/Kincaid (2), Sherfield/Murray (1)
I don’t think either of these tight ends is worthy of being a fantasy starter. Diggs is clearly still an alpha receiver and he has been just incredible this year with 520 yards and five touchdowns in five games. He has almost double the number of targets as Gave Davis, who has added a decent 18-320-4 line himself.
Touches & Touch Share Leaders
Travis Etienne (JAX), 27 Rushes, 4 Rec, 31 Touches, 47.0% Touch Shr
Stefon Diggs (BUF), 0 Rushes, 8 Rec, 8 Touches, 19.5% Touch Shr
James Cook (BUF), 5 Rushes, 3 Rec, 8 Touches, 19.5% Touch Shr
Gabriel Davis (BUF), 0 Rushes, 6 Rec, 6 Touches, 14.6% Touch Shr
Calvin Ridley (JAX), 2 Rushes, 7 Rec, 9 Touches, 13.6% Touch Shr
Christian Kirk (JAX), 1 Rushes, 6 Rec, 7 Touches, 10.6% Touch Shr
Target Share Leaders
Stefon Diggs (BUF), 11 Tgts, 29.7 Tgt%
Christian Kirk (JAX), 8 Tgts, 21.6 Tgt%
Evan Engram (JAX), 8 Tgts, 21.6 Tgt%
Gabriel Davis (BUF), 8 Tgts, 21.6 Tgt%
Calvin Ridley (JAX), 8 Tgts, 21.6 Tgt%
Dawson Knox (BUF), 6 Tgts, 16.2 Tgt%
Air Yards Share Leaders
Calvin Ridley (JAX), 124 Air Yds, 42.2 Air Yd%
Stefon Diggs (BUF), 182 Air Yds, 41.1 Air Yd%
Gabriel Davis (BUF), 111 Air Yds, 25.1 Air Yd%
Christian Kirk (JAX), 55 Air Yds, 18.7 Air Yd%
Evan Engram (JAX), 47 Air Yds, 16.0 Air Yd%
Deonte Harris (BUF), 59 Air Yds, 13.3 Air Yd%
Rush Share Leaders
Travis Etienne (JAX), 27 Rushes, 65.9 Rush%
James Cook (BUF), 5 Rushes, 35.7 Rush%
Josh Allen (BUF), 4 Rushes, 28.6 Rush%
Damien Harris (BUF), 3 Rushes, 21.4 Rush%
Trevor Lawrence (JAX), 7 Rushes, 17.1 Rush%
Latavius Murray (BUF), 2 Rushes, 14.3 Rush%
Red Zone Targets
Stefon Diggs (BUF), 2 RZ Tgts, 50.0 RZ Tgt%
Zay Jones (JAX), 2 RZ Tgts, 50.0 RZ Tgt%
Gabriel Davis (BUF), 1 RZ Tgts, 25.0 RZ Tgt%
Khalil Shakir (BUF), 1 RZ Tgts, 25.0 RZ Tgt%
Calvin Ridley (JAX), 1 RZ Tgts, 25.0 RZ Tgt%
Christian Kirk (JAX), 1 RZ Tgts, 25.0 RZ Tgt%
Goal Line (inside the 5) Carries
Travis Etienne (JAX), 2 GL Carries, 100.0 GL Carry%
Josh Allen (BUF), 1 GL Carries, 100.0 GL Carry%
HOU vs. ATL
ATL: 73 Plays, 53.4% Pass%, 68.5% xPass%, -15.1% Pass% OE
HOU: 58 Plays, 60.3% Pass%, 71.5% xPass%, -11.2% Pass% OE
Texans
It was a really ugly game, as a lot of these Falcons games are. The Texans were limited to 58 plays, that’s in the bottom ten of the week. Stroud was okay (57% Comp%, 7.1 YPA, 1:0 TD:INT), but really not what people wanted after they scooped him up on waivers this week.
Dameon Pierce carried it 20 times but went for only 66 scoreless yards and was quiet in the pace game (1-16-0).
Targets: Schultz (10), Woods (9), Collins/Dell (4), Metchie (2), Quitoriano/Pierce (1)
Schultz had 65 receiving yards and caught the lone touchdown; nobody else exceeded 40 yards. Bad game for the Texans pass game.
Falcons
Tyler Allgeier out-carried Bijan Robinson 17 to 14. Really disappointing day for Robinson with just 46 yards on the ground and a 2-12-1 line through the air (but he did salvage his fantasy day a bit with that late receiving touchdown). The only thing we can trust the Falcons for is to run the ball a lot, but if they’re splitting the carries then that’s pretty awful for Robinson since this offense doesn’t profile to be one that scores a ton of points.
Targets: Pitts (11), London (9), Smith (7). Nobody else had more than two. That’s 18 targets for tight ends and then nine of the remaining 17 to London. Pitts went 7-87-0 on that, so an encouraging day for him but that almost feels like a ceiling for him.
Touches & Touch Share Leaders
Dameon Pierce (HOU), 20 Rushes, 1 Rec, 21 Touches, 48.8% Touch Shr
Tyler Allgeier (ATL), 17 Rushes, 0 Rec, 17 Touches, 26.2% Touch Shr
Bijan Robinson (ATL), 14 Rushes, 2 Rec, 16 Touches, 24.6% Touch Shr
Dalton Schultz (HOU), 0 Rushes, 7 Rec, 7 Touches, 16.3% Touch Shr
Nathaniel Dell (HOU), 2 Rushes, 3 Rec, 5 Touches, 11.6% Touch Shr
Kyle Pitts (ATL), 0 Rushes, 7 Rec, 7 Touches, 10.8% Touch Shr
Target Share Leaders
Dalton Schultz (HOU), 10 Tgts, 31.2 Tgt%
Kyle Pitts (ATL), 11 Tgts, 28.2 Tgt%
Robert Woods (HOU), 9 Tgts, 28.1 Tgt%
Drake London (ATL), 9 Tgts, 23.1 Tgt%
Jonnu Smith (ATL), 7 Tgts, 17.9 Tgt%
Nico Collins (HOU), 4 Tgts, 12.5 Tgt%
Air Yards Share Leaders
Kyle Pitts (ATL), 125 Air Yds, 39.4 Air Yd%
Drake London (ATL), 104 Air Yds, 32.8 Air Yd%
Dalton Schultz (HOU), 81 Air Yds, 27.6 Air Yd%
Robert Woods (HOU), 77 Air Yds, 26.3 Air Yd%
Nathaniel Dell (HOU), 65 Air Yds, 22.2 Air Yd%
Jonnu Smith (ATL), 41 Air Yds, 12.9 Air Yd%
Rush Share Leaders
Dameon Pierce (HOU), 20 Rushes, 87.0 Rush%
Tyler Allgeier (ATL), 17 Rushes, 47.2 Rush%
Bijan Robinson (ATL), 14 Rushes, 38.9 Rush%
Desmond Ridder (ATL), 4 Rushes, 11.1 Rush%
Nathaniel Dell (HOU), 2 Rushes, 8.7 Rush%
CJ Stroud (HOU), 1 Rushes, 4.3 Rush%
Red Zone Targets
Dalton Schultz (HOU), 1 RZ Tgts, 50.0 RZ Tgt%
Robert Woods (HOU), 1 RZ Tgts, 50.0 RZ Tgt%
Bijan Robinson (ATL), 1 RZ Tgts, 25.0 RZ Tgt%
Drake London (ATL), 1 RZ Tgts, 25.0 RZ Tgt%
Kyle Pitts (ATL), 1 RZ Tgts, 25.0 RZ Tgt%
Tyler Allgeier (ATL), 1 RZ Tgts, 25.0 RZ Tgt%
Goal Line (inside the 5) Carries
Khadarel Hodge (ATL), 1 GL Carries, 100.0 GL Carry%
NOR vs. NWE
NOR: 66 Plays, 42.4% Pass%, 61.0% xPass%, -18.6% Pass% OE
NWE: 51 Plays, 64.7% Pass%, 79.5% xPass%, -14.8% Pass% OE
Saints
Kamara came down to just three targets, but carried it 22 times for 80 yards and a touchdown. So that’s a useful fantasy day. Not sure what to make of that with his 14 targets last week and then three this week, but he’ll get the ball 20+ times a week and that makes him an easy fantasy starter.
Targets: Thomas (7), Olave (5), Miller (4), Kamara (3), Shaheed (2)
Just a 2-12-1 line for Olave. The shakiness of this offense is going to restrict any kind of consistency from these guys, but Olave is still a must-start guy with a very strong 26.5% Tgt/Route.
Patriots
Elliott out-carried Stevenson here 12 to 8 and out-targeted him 4-2. The team went for just 45 rush yard and 132 pass yards, so it’s a complete fantasy desert and god rest your soul if you’re depending on any of these guys.
Touches & Touch Share Leaders
Alvin Kamara (NOR), 22 Rushes, 3 Rec, 25 Touches, 41.7% Touch Shr
Ezekiel Elliott (NWE), 8 Rushes, 4 Rec, 12 Touches, 36.4% Touch Shr
Kendre Miller (NOR), 12 Rushes, 4 Rec, 16 Touches, 26.7% Touch Shr
Rhamondre Stevenson (NWE), 8 Rushes, 0 Rec, 8 Touches, 24.2% Touch Shr
JuJu Smith-Schuster (NWE), 0 Rushes, 3 Rec, 3 Touches, 9.1% Touch Shr
Michael Thomas (NOR), 0 Rushes, 4 Rec, 4 Touches, 6.7% Touch Shr
Target Share Leaders
Michael Thomas (NOR), 7 Tgts, 28.0 Tgt%
Chris Olave (NOR), 5 Tgts, 20.0 Tgt%
Kendrick Bourne (NWE), 5 Tgts, 16.1 Tgt%
Kendre Miller (NOR), 4 Tgts, 16.0 Tgt%
Ty Montgomery (NWE), 4 Tgts, 12.9 Tgt%
Mike Gesicki (NWE), 4 Tgts, 12.9 Tgt%
Air Yards Share Leaders
Michael Thomas (NOR), 126 Air Yds, 50.6 Air Yd%
Chris Olave (NOR), 87 Air Yds, 34.9 Air Yd%
Kendrick Bourne (NWE), 116 Air Yds, 34.0 Air Yd%
DeVante Parker (NWE), 66 Air Yds, 19.4 Air Yd%
Ty Montgomery (NWE), 57 Air Yds, 16.7 Air Yd%
Hunter Henry (NWE), 48 Air Yds, 14.1 Air Yd%
Rush Share Leaders
Alvin Kamara (NOR), 22 Rushes, 52.4 Rush%
Rhamondre Stevenson (NWE), 8 Rushes, 44.4 Rush%
Ezekiel Elliott (NWE), 8 Rushes, 44.4 Rush%
Kendre Miller (NOR), 12 Rushes, 28.6 Rush%
Taysom Hill (NOR), 3 Rushes, 7.1 Rush%
Jameis Winston (NOR), 3 Rushes, 7.1 Rush%
Red Zone Targets
Alvin Kamara (NOR), 1 RZ Tgts, 33.3 RZ Tgt%
Chris Olave (NOR), 1 RZ Tgts, 33.3 RZ Tgt%
Foster Moreau (NOR), 1 RZ Tgts, 33.3 RZ Tgt%
Goal Line (inside the 5) Carries
Alvin Kamara (NOR), 2 GL Carries, 100.0 GL Carry%
TEN vs. IND
IND: 60 Plays, 45.0% Pass%, 66.7% xPass%, -21.7% Pass% OE
TEN: 56 Plays, 62.5% Pass%, 66.3% xPass%, -3.8% Pass% OE
Titans
Derrick Henry carried it 13 times, and Tyjae Spears mixed in more than expected with seven carries and five targets (7-34-1 on the ground, 4-35-0 through the air). That held Henry out of the endzone on a bad 3.3 yards per carry. Bad game for him, but that will happen.
DeAndre Hopkins had a big game with 8-140-0 on 11 targets. Even with that, Chigoziem Okonkwo found nine targets of his own but caught just five of them for 33 yards.
Colts
Richardson got hurt once again so things are skewed here. This offense changes quite a bit if he’s out of the lineup, so that’s one of the biggest things to monitor this week.
Running back work:
Moss: 49 snaps, 23 carries, 165 yards, 2 targets, 2 TD
Taylor: 10 snaps, 6 carries, 18 yards, 1 targetClearly, Taylor wasn’t truly ready to go here. You have to still think he’s their main RB moving forward after the three-year extension, but Moss certainly made his case to stay a significant ball-carrier in this offense.
Targets: Pittman (7), Downs (6), Granson (3), Moss/Ogletree/Pierce (2).
Nobody went over 100 yards but Pittman and Downs combined for 149 yards on their 13 shared targets. But this is a team that doesn’t want to throw it all that much.
Touches & Touch Share Leaders
Zack Moss (IND), 23 Rushes, 2 Rec, 25 Touches, 46.3% Touch Shr
Derrick Henry (TEN), 13 Rushes, 3 Rec, 16 Touches, 35.6% Touch Shr
Tyjae Spears (TEN), 7 Rushes, 4 Rec, 11 Touches, 24.4% Touch Shr
DeAndre Hopkins (TEN), 0 Rushes, 8 Rec, 8 Touches, 17.8% Touch Shr
Jonathan Taylor (IND), 6 Rushes, 1 Rec, 7 Touches, 13.0% Touch Shr
Chigoziem Okonkwo (TEN), 0 Rushes, 5 Rec, 5 Touches, 11.1% Touch Shr
Target Share Leaders
DeAndre Hopkins (TEN), 11 Tgts, 32.4 Tgt%
Michael Pittman Jr. (IND), 7 Tgts, 29.2 Tgt%
Chigoziem Okonkwo (TEN), 9 Tgts, 26.5 Tgt%
Josh Downs (IND), 6 Tgts, 25.0 Tgt%
Tyjae Spears (TEN), 5 Tgts, 14.7 Tgt%
Kylen Granson (IND), 3 Tgts, 12.5 Tgt%
Air Yards Share Leaders
DeAndre Hopkins (TEN), 173 Air Yds, 63.8 Air Yd%
Michael Pittman Jr. (IND), 71 Air Yds, 35.7 Air Yd%
Josh Downs (IND), 54 Air Yds, 27.1 Air Yd%
Chigoziem Okonkwo (TEN), 37 Air Yds, 13.7 Air Yd%
Alec Pierce (IND), 25 Air Yds, 12.6 Air Yd%
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine (TEN), 34 Air Yds, 12.5 Air Yd%
Rush Share Leaders
Zack Moss (IND), 23 Rushes, 67.6 Rush%
Derrick Henry (TEN), 13 Rushes, 59.1 Rush%
Tyjae Spears (TEN), 7 Rushes, 31.8 Rush%
Jonathan Taylor (IND), 6 Rushes, 17.6 Rush%
Ryan Tannehill (TEN), 2 Rushes, 9.1 Rush%
Gardner Minshew (IND), 2 Rushes, 5.9 Rush%
Red Zone Targets
Chigoziem Okonkwo (TEN), 2 RZ Tgts, 40.0 RZ Tgt%
Kylen Granson (IND), 1 RZ Tgts, 50.0 RZ Tgt%
Michael Pittman Jr. (IND), 1 RZ Tgts, 50.0 RZ Tgt%
DeAndre Hopkins (TEN), 1 RZ Tgts, 20.0 RZ Tgt%
Derrick Henry (TEN), 1 RZ Tgts, 20.0 RZ Tgt%
Tyjae Spears (TEN), 1 RZ Tgts, 20.0 RZ Tgt%
Goal Line (inside the 5) Carries
Derrick Henry (TEN), 1 GL Carries, 100.0 GL Carry%
Zack Moss (IND), 1 GL Carries, 100.0 GL Carry%
CAR vs. DET
CAR: 65 Plays, 64.6% Pass%, 77.7% xPass%, -13.1% Pass% OE
DET: 57 Plays, 52.6% Pass%, 55.2% xPass%, -2.6% Pass% OE
Panthers
They were held to just 5.3 yards per play as the Lions dominated this game from the start.
Bryce Young has a low 5.17 YPA on the year with a 63% Comp% and a 5:4 TD:INT ratio, not great - but he doesn’t have a ton of weapons out there.
RB Work
Hubbard: 9 attempts, 2 targets
Sanders: 7 attempts, 1 targetSecond straight week with a lesser workload for Sanders. Before the injury in weeks 1-3 he was out-touching Hubbard 53 to 21, so he’ll probably get back into a more dominant share of the touches soon, but it’s not going to be great unless Young starts playing better.
Targets: Thielen (13), Mingo (7), Chark (6), Hurst (3), Thomas/Hubbard (2)
Thielen went 11-107-1, and Chark went 3-42-1 - both having pretty decent fantasy days. Thielen now has 47 targets in five games, that’s behind only seven other pass catchers. The ball has to go somewhere, and Thielen has been a safety blanket for Young hauling in 81% of his targets and going for 38-394-3 on the year - a super valuable late draft pick this year for sure.
Lions
No St.Brown or Gibbs, and it was not a problem. Goff went for 236 yards and three touchdowns on 28 attempts for a beautiful 8.4 YPA, throwing no interceptions. He has a 9:3 TD:INT now with an 8.0 YPA on the year, he’s been great - although not for fantasy purposes with the lower volume and no rushing ability.
RB carries: Montgomery (19), Craig Reynolds (7)
Targets: Montgomery (6), Josh Reynolds (5), LaPorat (4), Raymond/Williams/Wright (3), Jones (2)
Jameson Williams debuted, played 28 snaps and saw three targets on his 15 routes (20% Tgt/Route), that’s a somewhat encouraging debut able to earn three targets on such a small workload.
The Lions are a very good offense, they are averaging 8.4 yards per pass attempt and 5.3 yards per rush - it’s a good situation for fantasy purposes.
Touches & Touch Share Leaders
David Montgomery (DET), 19 Rushes, 2 Rec, 21 Touches, 42.0% Touch Shr
Adam Thielen (CAR), 0 Rushes, 11 Rec, 11 Touches, 22.9% Touch Shr
Chuba Hubbard (CAR), 9 Rushes, 1 Rec, 10 Touches, 20.8% Touch Shr
Miles Sanders (CAR), 7 Rushes, 0 Rec, 7 Touches, 14.6% Touch Shr
Craig Reynolds (DET), 7 Rushes, 0 Rec, 7 Touches, 14.0% Touch Shr
Jonathan Mingo (CAR), 0 Rushes, 5 Rec, 5 Touches, 10.4% Touch Shr
Target Share Leaders
Adam Thielen (CAR), 13 Tgts, 37.1 Tgt%
David Montgomery (DET), 6 Tgts, 22.2 Tgt%
Jonathan Mingo (CAR), 7 Tgts, 20.0 Tgt%
Josh Reynolds (DET), 5 Tgts, 18.5 Tgt%
D.J. Chark (CAR), 6 Tgts, 17.1 Tgt%
Sam LaPorta (DET), 4 Tgts, 14.8 Tgt%
Air Yards Share Leaders
Josh Reynolds (DET), 64 Air Yds, 40.3 Air Yd%
Adam Thielen (CAR), 86 Air Yds, 33.7 Air Yd%
D.J. Chark (CAR), 75 Air Yds, 29.4 Air Yd%
Sam LaPorta (DET), 43 Air Yds, 27.0 Air Yd%
Jonathan Mingo (CAR), 55 Air Yds, 21.6 Air Yd%
Kalif Raymond (DET), 29 Air Yds, 18.2 Air Yd%
Rush Share Leaders
David Montgomery (DET), 19 Rushes, 63.3 Rush%
Chuba Hubbard (CAR), 9 Rushes, 39.1 Rush%
Miles Sanders (CAR), 7 Rushes, 30.4 Rush%
Craig Reynolds (DET), 7 Rushes, 23.3 Rush%
Laviska Shenault (CAR), 5 Rushes, 21.7 Rush%
Jared Goff (DET), 2 Rushes, 6.7 Rush%
Red Zone Targets
Adam Thielen (CAR), 4 RZ Tgts, 40.0 RZ Tgt%
D.J. Chark (CAR), 3 RZ Tgts, 30.0 RZ Tgt%
Brock Wright (DET), 1 RZ Tgts, 25.0 RZ Tgt%
Josh Reynolds (DET), 1 RZ Tgts, 25.0 RZ Tgt%
Kalif Raymond (DET), 1 RZ Tgts, 25.0 RZ Tgt%
Sam LaPorta (DET), 1 RZ Tgts, 25.0 RZ Tgt%
Chuba Hubbard (CAR), 1 RZ Tgts, 10.0 RZ Tgt%
Jonathan Mingo (CAR), 1 RZ Tgts, 10.0 RZ Tgt%
Tommy Tremble (CAR), 1 RZ Tgts, 10.0 RZ Tgt%
Goal Line (inside the 5) Carries
Craig Reynolds (DET), 2 GL Carries, 40.0 GL Carry%
David Montgomery (DET), 2 GL Carries, 40.0 GL Carry%
Jared Goff (DET), 1 GL Carries, 20.0 GL Carry%
Hitting a paywall now. Become a paid subscriber for $7/month or $75/year to get the rest of post along with the rest of everything else, including but not limited to:
Weekly NFL DraftKings projections
Unmatched NFL Stats Tableau dashboard (snaps, routes, everything!)
The entire MLB product including playoff projections, DFS and betting picks, and the full offseason worth of content leading up to 2024 draft season.