NFL Weekly Notes - Week 8
A weekly statistical summary of the most recent NFL week, brought to you every Monday.
This was a unique week with all of the injuries. There were a lot of big names missing and lesser-known names filling in. Let’s hit the highlights of each game.
Team Pass Rate Over Expectation
Top 5 Teams
CIN: 57 Plays, 70.2% Pass%, 61.6% xPass%, 8.6% Pass% OE
LAC: 66 Plays, 62.1% Pass%, 57.2% xPass%, 4.9% Pass% OE
DEN: 72 Plays, 58.3% Pass%, 54.6% xPass%, 3.7% Pass% OE
KAN: 68 Plays, 63.2% Pass%, 60.5% xPass%, 2.7% Pass% OE
BAL: 66 Plays, 69.7% Pass%, 67.7% xPass%, 2.0% Pass% OE
Bottom 5 Teams
CHI: 62 Plays, 53.2% Pass%, 70.1% xPass%, -16.9% Pass% OE
GNB: 67 Plays, 47.8% Pass%, 64.4% xPass%, -16.6% Pass% OE
PHI: 61 Plays, 37.7% Pass%, 52.4% xPass%, -14.7% Pass% OE
IND: 62 Plays, 62.9% Pass%, 74.0% xPass%, -11.1% Pass% OE
LVR: 55 Plays, 65.5% Pass%, 75.2% xPass%, -9.7% Pass% OE
Target Share Leaders
CeeDee Lamb (DAL), 17 Targets, 45.9% Tgt Share
Calvin Ridley (TEN), 15 Targets, 39.5% Tgt Share
Justin Jefferson (MIN), 9 Targets, 39.1% Tgt Share
DeVonta Smith (PHI), 7 Targets, 36.8% Tgt Share
Chris Olave (NOR), 14 Targets, 36.8% Tgt Share
Travis Kelce (KAN), 12 Targets, 34.3% Tgt Share
Zay Flowers (BAL), 12 Targets, 34.3% Tgt Share
Trey McBride (ARI), 11 Targets, 33.3% Tgt Share
Sam LaPorta (DET), 6 Targets, 33.3% Tgt Share
Zach Ertz (WAS), 11 Targets, 32.4% Tgt Share
Air Yards - Totals
Zay Flowers (BAL), 195 Air Yards, 16.2 ADoT
Terry McLaurin (WAS), 176 Air Yards, 22.0 ADoT
Garrett Wilson (NYJ), 169 Air Yards, 21.1 ADoT
Calvin Ridley (TEN), 167 Air Yards, 11.1 ADoT
Cedric Tillman (CLE), 159 Air Yards, 15.9 ADoT
Chris Olave (NOR), 156 Air Yards, 11.1 ADoT
Courtland Sutton (DEN), 154 Air Yards, 14.0 ADoT
CeeDee Lamb (DAL), 149 Air Yards, 8.8 ADoT
Marvin Harrison Jr. (ARI), 136 Air Yards, 19.4 ADoT
Michael Pittman Jr. (IND), 132 Air Yards, 22.0 ADoT
ADoT Leaders - 5 Target Minimum
Michael Pittman Jr. (IND), 6 Tgt, 132 Air Yards, 22.0 ADoT
Terry McLaurin (WAS), 8 Tgt, 176 Air Yards, 22.0 ADoT
Garrett Wilson (NYJ), 8 Tgt, 169 Air Yards, 21.1 ADoT
Christian Kirk (JAX), 5 Tgt, 105 Air Yards, 21.0 ADoT
Rome Odunze (CHI), 6 Tgt, 126 Air Yards, 21.0 ADoT
Noah Brown (WAS), 6 Tgt, 124 Air Yards, 20.7 ADoT
Marvin Harrison Jr. (ARI), 7 Tgt, 136 Air Yards, 19.4 ADoT
Darnell Mooney (ATL), 7 Tgt, 127 Air Yards, 18.1 ADoT
Jalen Coker (CAR), 6 Tgt, 103 Air Yards, 17.2 ADoT
Romeo Doubs (GNB), 6 Tgt, 98 Air Yards, 16.3 ADoT
Touch Leaders
Joe Mixon (HOU), 25 Rushes, 4 Rec, 29 Touches
Kyren Williams (LAR), 23 Rushes, 5 Rec, 28 Touches
Josh Jacobs (GNB), 25 Rushes, 1 Rec, 26 Touches
James Conner (ARI), 21 Rushes, 2 Rec, 23 Touches
Tony Pollard (TEN), 20 Rushes, 3 Rec, 23 Touches
Saquon Barkley (PHI), 22 Rushes, 1 Rec, 23 Touches
Rhamondre Stevenson (NWE), 20 Rushes, 3 Rec, 23 Touches
Kareem Hunt (KAN), 21 Rushes, 1 Rec, 22 Touches
Javonte Williams (DEN), 17 Rushes, 4 Rec, 21 Touches
Aaron Jones (MIN), 19 Rushes, 2 Rec, 21 Touches
Game-by-Game Breakdowns
MIN vs. LAR
LAR: 63 Plays, 54.0% Pass%, 70.1% xPass%, -16.1% Pass% OE
MIN: 49 Plays, 57.1% Pass%, 63.7% xPass%, -6.6% Pass% OE
MIN
Aaron Jones played 92% of the snaps. His role has been expanding, he’s played 86 snaps and has 38 touches the last two weeks.
LAR
Cooper Kupp (8 targets) and Puka Nacua (9 targets) returned, so we can bail on everybody other than those two and Kyren Williams in this offense. Both played less than 60% of the snaps, but they were on the field when they need a pass completion and they soaked up more than 50% of the targets.
Kup'p’s 4.8 ADoT held him down, while Nacua had the bigger day with 106 yards on his seven catches.
Touches & Touch Share Leaders
Aaron Jones (MIN), 19 Rushes, 2 Rec, 21 Touches, 52.5% Touch Shr
Kyren Williams (LAR), 23 Rushes, 5 Rec, 28 Touches, 49.1% Touch Shr
Justin Jefferson (MIN), 0 Rushes, 8 Rec, 8 Touches, 20.0% Touch Shr
Puka Nacua (LAR), 2 Rushes, 7 Rec, 9 Touches, 15.8% Touch Shr
Blake Corum (LAR), 4 Rushes, 1 Rec, 5 Touches, 8.8% Touch Shr
Cooper Kupp (LAR), 0 Rushes, 5 Rec, 5 Touches, 8.8% Touch Shr
Target Share Leaders
Justin Jefferson (MIN), 9 Tgts, 39.1 Tgt%
Puka Nacua (LAR), 9 Tgts, 26.5 Tgt%
Cooper Kupp (LAR), 8 Tgts, 23.5 Tgt%
Kyren Williams (LAR), 7 Tgts, 20.6 Tgt%
Jalen Nailor (MIN), 4 Tgts, 17.4 Tgt%
Jordan Addison (MIN), 3 Tgts, 13.0 Tgt%
Air Yards Share Leaders
Puka Nacua (LAR), 105 Air Yds, 40.5 Air Yd%
Justin Jefferson (MIN), 103 Air Yds, 39.6 Air Yd%
Tutu Atwell (LAR), 55 Air Yds, 21.2 Air Yd%
Demarcus Robinson (LAR), 54 Air Yds, 20.8 Air Yd%
Jordan Addison (MIN), 40 Air Yds, 15.4 Air Yd%
Cooper Kupp (LAR), 38 Air Yds, 14.7 Air Yd%
Rush Share Leaders
Aaron Jones (MIN), 19 Rushes, 86.4 Rush%
Kyren Williams (LAR), 23 Rushes, 71.9 Rush%
Sam Darnold (MIN), 3 Rushes, 13.6 Rush%
Blake Corum (LAR), 4 Rushes, 12.5 Rush%
Matthew Stafford (LAR), 3 Rushes, 9.4 Rush%
Puka Nacua (LAR), 2 Rushes, 6.2 Rush%
Red Zone Targets
Cooper Kupp (LAR), 2 RZ Tgts, 50.0 RZ Tgt%
Justin Jefferson (MIN), 2 RZ Tgts, 40.0 RZ Tgt%
Demarcus Robinson (LAR), 1 RZ Tgts, 25.0 RZ Tgt%
Kyren Williams (LAR), 1 RZ Tgts, 25.0 RZ Tgt%
Josh Oliver (MIN), 1 RZ Tgts, 20.0 RZ Tgt%
Jalen Nailor (MIN), 1 RZ Tgts, 20.0 RZ Tgt%
Trent Sherfield (MIN), 1 RZ Tgts, 20.0 RZ Tgt%
Goal Line (inside the 5) Carries
Aaron Jones (MIN), 1 GL Carries, 100.0 GL Carry%
BAL vs. CLE
BAL: 60 Plays, 65.0% Pass%, 74.5% xPass%, -9.5% Pass% OE
CLE: 66 Plays, 65.2% Pass%, 65.6% xPass%, -0.4% Pass% OE
BAL
The Ravens dropped this game late, and it was one of the bigger upsets of the season.
Zay Flowers saw 12 targets as the Ravens had to go pass heavy here (70% Pass%). Nobody else saw more than five targets, and Derrick Henry only saw 11 carries - once again showing his downside when the Ravens are not ahead.
CLE
Jameis Winston was very good with a 7.95 YPA. He threw for 334 yards and three touchdowns on his 42 attempts (64% completion%).
His targets: Moore (12), Tillman (10), Jeudy (80, Njoku (7).
Tillman caught two touchdowns and put up a 7-99-2 line on a 15.9 ADoT. I’d say we can start him moving forward as long as Winston is under center, but there are four strong options in the passing game, so the floor will be low for all of them.