Predicting 2025 Batting Average Gainers and Losers
A look at 2024 expected batting averages
Watch how efficiently I can write this post.
What
I am comparing 2024 expected batted averages (from baseball savant) to 2024 actual batting averages to see which hitters had the biggest differentials.
Why
Because expected batting average is a better predictor of future actual batting average. This dashboard proves it.
When
Right now.
Where
Right here.
How
Data exports from Baseball Savant and then subtraction.
Results
Over-Performers
Among hitters with at least 200 PAs, 19 hitters had expected batting averages at least 30 points lower than their actuals. Xavier Edwards leads the pack. He hit .328 but was expected at just .252. xBA does factor in sprint speed, but it still does appear that the fast players are more likely to “overperform” here, as you’ll see a lot of very fast runners below (not without exceptions, though).
Under Performers
I find 18 hitters that under-performed their expectation by at least 25 points.
This leaderboard will usually be a bunch of names that were so bad in batting average, that they would need to add a nearly impossible number of points to get to a point where we like them in fantasy. It’s true that Jack Suwinski should have hit for a better batting average last year, but the expected was still awful at .220.
So, let’s put a filter on it to look at only players with expected batting averages above .240.
That’s good news for those hoping that Bo Bichette can have a bounce-back season. It also gets me a little bit extra excited about the guys on the list that I know can hit for power (Michael Toglia, Fernando Tatis Jr., Brandon Nimmo). George Springer is going to be basically free this year, and I’d say there’s an excellent chance that he beats his draft cost, so we can lean into him in deep leagues as one of those boring veterans to consider the discount on. Much more on that to come this winter!
The full data, including the 2025 projected batting averages are behind the paywall.