Projected Powered Player Props - March 28
A look at the best prop bet values for today's MLB slate
OPENING WEEK SALE ANNOUNCEMENT: NOW THROUGH THIS WEEKEND YOU CAN GET A PAID SUBSCRIPTION FOR $59/YEAR!
I’m back for day two! We went three for five on Opening Day to start the season in the plus column.
There will only be a handful of plays in this post each day, but there are ton of prop bets available for paid subscribers on the player prop comparison sheet. The links to those resources are below the paywall.
I also log all of the recommended bets and check the performance throughout the year. The tracker is here. What it does is just logs every bet that (at any time) shows a value above 10%. Every time my daily projections run, it saves off a list of bets above that value threshold. So it’s not a curated list, it’s just a huge list of everything the model thinks is decent at any time.
We can use that to analyze the model. We’ll be able to see which bet types are working and which are not, and which thresholds are best to rely on. Stuff like that. Get creative with it, it’s all there for you to use.
Let’s hit one free prop for today and then we’ll get the paywall going! Take advantage of that sale today and get everything!
Tanner Houck Over 5.5 Strikeouts
Book: BetRivers
Price: +220
Projection: 5.7 strikeouts
Edge: 19%
I don’t have much commentary to add to this one. This one is just all about the price offered there on BetRivers. The other books are at 4.5 on him.
My projection gives him about a 50% chance of going for 6+ strikeouts. That’s not a great chance, but when you compare it with the implied odds of 31% that the +220 line gives you, it’s worth a play.