Projection-Based ADP Values
Comparing projection based auction values with ADP rank at each position
I talk a lot about how sticking to the basics is very often the best way to go. In these days of Big Data and complex computer models, sometimes the most profitable moves are the ones we’ve been using for years.
We’re pulling one of these old tricks out of the bag today. I used the FanGraphs Auction Calculator to give auction values for all players, and then I compared them with the ADP to find the fades and busts. I used The Bat X for hitters and ATC for pitchers. I also limited the player pool to just the top 500 in ADP.
Catcher
Will Smith, Los Angeles Dodgers
He ranks #3 by the projections at the catcher position but gets drafted at #7. I think what we’ll see a lot during this post are guys being moved down the draft board a bit because of a perceived lack of ceiling. That seems to be the case right out of the gate. Smith’s upside is capped because of the playing time. He’s sure to sit 30-40 games (while Ohtani is healthy, at least), and that has drafters running more toward the guys they think can get past 600 PAs.
The floor is great with Smith, though, and it makes a lot of sense to build your offense out with a focus on safety.
First Base
Andrew Vaughn, Chicago White Sox
$ Rank: 113
ADP Rank: 268
Vaughn is as good of a bet as you’ll find for 150+ games played after ADP 250, and he’s been a solid but unspectacular hitter to this point in his career (career 102 wRC+, .725 OPS).
He’s a very good bet for 20-25 homers with 75-85 RBI and a batting average that you’re satisfied with. He’s too cheap, even in that bleak White Sox environment.
Runner Ups
Yandy Diaz
Jake Cronenworth
Second Base
Christopher Morel, Tampa Bay Rays
$ Rank: 182
ADP Rank: 279
I think this cheap price comes from the reaction when you see a .196 batting average.
That’ll have people skipping over him. The projections have him getting over .220, and the raw power he is should lead to another 20-25 homer season (he hit 26 in 2022 and 21 last year).
He will just have to hit enough to stay in the lineup, because he sure isn’t staying in there with defense.
Runner Ups
Jake Cronenworth
Jonathan India
Gleyber Torres