Projection Based Late Round Hitter Targets
I project every hitter for 600 PAs and see what surprises pop up
First of all, Merry Christmas! I’m bringing you a little deep-league sleeper list today as my gift to you.
This week, I added “600 PA” and “180 IP” projections for paid subscribers. In this method, I take all players, give them the same projected playing time, and see what the model does from there. This is helpful in two ways.
Comparing players together in a vacuum
Finding late-round upside
Maybe you’re just wondering what Yordan Alvarez would do as compared to Aaron Judge if they both took the same number of trips to the plate. Or maybe you want to find those late-round SPs who could really smash for your fantasy team if they get into a rotation early on.
Today, we’ll focus on hitters who pop on this sheet. For those paid subscribers, you can view the “Hitters600” tab on the 2025 JA MLB Projections Google Sheet.
I will give you a few for free and then put the really juicy names behind the paywall.
Matt Shaw, Chicago Cubs
ADP: 300
I was shook by my own projection on the guy. Here’s the 600 PA:
600 PA, .254/.323/.457, 26 HR, 25
If you were asking me to put money on Shaw having a 20-20 season in 2025, I’d be running for the hills. But projecting baseball outcomes is all math, and I have some decent math in this projection model.
The most striking thing is that my model usually hates rookies, which is what I’d like to see since they fail so often. I have Roman Anthony as a .233/.325/.413 hitter this year, and he’s a more highly touted prospect than Shaw.
So what’s going with Shaw? First, we see what he did in the upper levels of the minors last year:
522 PA, .284/.379/.488, 21 HR, 31 SB, 18% K%, 12% BB%
You will certainly get some credit in projection models for a six-point spread between your K% and BB%. That bodes well for his plate discipline abilities in the Majors.
The other thing my model looks for is fly ball hitters and guys who hit the ball hard. Shaw did both of those things with a low 40% GB% and a 106-mile-per-hour 90th-percentile exit velocity.
This is all great stuff. He checks all of the boxes the model is looking for, and that results in a very rosey skill projection in my model.
Add that to the fact that Shaw might get a shot at the Opening Day third base job with Isaac Paredes gone, and you have a guy who could be a total smash in fantasy leagues. He handled lefties (.899) and righties (.864 OPS) well, so there’s less of a worry that he might be a guy who struggles without the platoon advantage.
The bottom line is that it’s tough to find a flaw in Shaw. That does not mean that Major League pitchers won’t be able to find one, but he sets up very nicely for a smooth transition to the Majors. I’m willing to invest in the guy, although his ADP is sure to be moving upward in a hurry as we get closer to the season starting.
Caleb Durbin, Milwaukee Brewers
ADP: 422
Durbin was part of the return from the Yankees in the Devin Williams trade. He slides in as the Brewers’ #15 prospect, but my model takes some issue with that. Here’s his 600 PA projection:
79 R, 15 HR, 79 RBI, 38 SB, .255/.345/.410
He spent most of last year in AAA, so we have a good amount of advanced data on him. Overall, his minor league line in 2024:
406 PA, .275/.388/.451, 10 HR, 31 SB, 9.9% K%, 13.1% B%
That’s more walks than strikeouts and a 40-steal pace with some power. Now, we’ve seen this before. The names that come to mind from the last three years are Esteury Ruiz, Victor Scott, and Tyler Black. These are guys that made a ton of contact, hit some homers, and stole an absurd number of bags in the minors only to come up to the Majors and be completely unable to get on base. The common thread in those names is a lack of swing speed. You need to hit the ball hard in the Majors to consistently reach base.
Durbin was a bit better than those guys in the minors in exit velocity stuff, but he’s still short of what we’d really like to see.
Brl%: 3.3%
Max EV: 107
90th Percentile EV: 100.6
That’s all very similar to what we saw from Victor Scott in 2023, and we know what happened with Scott in 2024. The one difference is the K-BB%. You see the sub-10% K% from last year and the high walk rate. And this wasn’t a new thing.
Caleb Durbin K% and BB% by Year
2022: 11.1% K%, 10.9% BB%
2023: 6.2% K%, 8.9% BB%
2024: 9.9% K%, 13.1% BB%
It’s a 9.4% K% and an 11.1% BB% with a .376 OBP in his minor league career. To keep the Scott comparison going:
Minor League Careers
Victor Scott: .264/.344/.381, 16% K%, 9.4% BB%, 17 HR, 138 SB
Caleb Durbin: .269/.376/.413, 9.4% K%, 11.1% BB%, 22 HR, 98 SB
Durbin could quite easily crap out just like Scott, but I’d say he’s a better bet right now than Scott ever was.
There is also a wide path to MLB playing time. He plays both the infield and the outfield, and the Brewers lineup is not exactly stacked. With Adames gone, their projected infield is Hoskins, Turang, Ortiz, and Dunn. I would not call any of those guys locked-in starters, so Durbin is likely to get his shot. He’s a great bench stash with an ADP after 400.
Nolan Gorman, St. Louis Cardinals
ADP: 391
We go from two exciting young prospects to a guy we have seen a lot of in the Majors and who has proven to us that he pretty much sucks. But hear me out!
Nolan Arenado is on his way out, and there have been some rumblings from Cardinals management that Gorman will be given a “long leash” in 2025. This is going to be a rebuilding year for the Cardinals. They are going to want to see what they have in these younger bats. Gorman is better than people think. He has a career 104 wRC+ with 60 carer homers in less than 1,200 Major League plate appearances.
Since his debut in 2022, is home run rate is 18th-best in baseball.
That’s the good news. We’re well aware of the bad news (.222/.301/.435 slash line, 34% K%). The question is - how valuable to the fantasy game is that home run rate?
There’s little doubt in my mind that Gorman is a 30-homer guy if he plays 150+ games. My 600 PA projection on him:
80 R, 32 HR, 80 RBI, 8 SB, .234/.311/.470
He will hurt your team’s batting average and steals count, but he’s a positive in HR and RBI. That will depend on some improvement on that 38% K% he posted last year before being demoted, but it’s reasonable to expect positive regression toward his career average of 34%. Give him a 32% K%, and you have a very valuable bat relative to his ADP of #390.
And now we will hit the paywall. Subscribe today to get the rest of this post, along with everything else I’m doing here (full team previews, full projections, and way more)!