Projection Based Later-Round Replacements
Why Draft Player A When You Can Draft Player B, X Picks Later?
Sometimes, these things can get dumb, and I want you to read that subtitle in a very sarcastic voice. But it is fun to do, and if you do it right, it’s useful.
ADP is sharp, and there’s a reason for most disparities. It’s also not right to say you should never draft a guy just because there’s someone later who can probably do most of what they can do. There’s always a case for just drafting both guys! But humor me - I’ll make it worth your time.
I took a Python script and looped through all hitters in the top 400 of ADP. I looked for players who were picked at least 20 picks later and projected similarly across the five standard roto categories.
The full data is linked below the paywall so you can see the full list of comps. Before we get there, I’ll highlight the ones I think are most viable and interesting.
We’ll do this like a Mad Lib. For each player, I’ll fill in the blanks for that subtitle.
Catcher
Why draft Will Smith (ADP 89) when you can draft Tyler Stephenson (ADP 139) 50 picks later??
There’s a gap here in the homers, and Smith is clearly the more proven asset. But Stephenson did add power and will play a lot for the Reds. There aren’t many DH reps available for Smith to have with Ohtani in town, and you could see them ease more and more off of his workload as he ages.
Why draft Keibert Ruiz (ADP 200) when you can draft Patrick Bailey (ADP 301) 101 picks later??
What you have in Keibert Ruiz is a catcher who can’t hit but will at least play a ton.
What you have in Patrick Bailey is a catcher who can’t hit but will at least play a ton.
Bailey strikes out way more (11% to 22% last year), but impacts the ball much better (.280 xwOBA for Ruiz, .320 for Bailey).
I have no idea why you’d draft Keibert Ruiz at that price this year.
First Base
Why draft Matt Olson (ADP 33) when you can draft Christian Walker (ADP 93) 60 picks later??
I get this one. Olson has a ceiling that Walker simply does not. What he did in 2023 was insane, so that pushes him up the draft boards even two years later. There’s a three-year age gap as well (almost exactly; they were both born in late March), and that favors Olson. But they are very similar player types.
You’re looking at 30-400 homers with 90-110 RBI, minimal steals, and a .250ish batting average on both guys. Olson edges him out almost across the board, but it’s close enough to where I’m happy to wait 4-5 rounds and get Walker instead.
Why draft Paul Goldschmidt (ADP 163) when you can draft Andrew Vaughn (ADP 308) 145 picks later??
The Yankees have the better lineup, but Vaughn might be the better hitter.
The projections are all pretty close, and the upside nod clearly goes to the much younger Andrew Vaughn (he’ll turn 27 in early April).
And now I cut off the free-loaders! Become a paid member to get the rest of this post, the full data, and everything else going on here all year!