Projection Powered Player Props - April 14
Stuart Durst (@MonotoneFootbal) has three MLB player props to start your week right!
We are back with another loaded slate of MLB player props. Check out my favorite bets for tonight’s action.
Tanner Houck o4.5 Strikeouts
Price: -127
Book: MGM
Projection: 5.68
Edge: 12%
Tanner Houck is coming off his best start against Toronto, where he went 6.2 IP, 5 H, 1 R, 2 BB, 2 Ks. Despite the lack of strikeouts, it was the deepest he’s gotten in a game this year. He’s faced some tough matchups with the Blue Jays, Orioles, and Rangers this season, but I think this is a good opportunity for regression. Houck has proven himself as a solid pitcher, and with that big sweeper and a solid splitter to go along with it I think we see the whiffs and swinging strikes increase as the sample size gets bigger. The sweeper has a 36% whiff rate on the season; we just need to see some of the other pitches normalize back to past seasons.
The model currently has Houck projected for 5.68 strikeouts tonight. I have faith that he gets deep into the game and racks up those strikeouts against the Rays. Tampa has gotten off to a strong start, but Houck has had good success against his division rival, with the current roster hitting .203 with a 29.2% strikeout rate against him in a limited sample size (65 ABs).