Projection Powered Player Props - April 3
Five model-recommended props for this short Thursday slate
Yesterday was funny. Well, at least to me it was. I’m in the business of trying to improve my modeling and coding rather than trying to make money playing fantasy or betting on baseball. I’m really not betting on stuff, and if I do, it’s a few bucks just to track the model.
So yesterday I wrote the article, and it went horribly wrong. Only one of seven hit, and a few of them missed hilariously. But the dumb thing was, I wasn’t even giving the top bets from the model! Four of the top five from the prop sheet hit! The model actually had a +5 unit day!
Am I making excuses? Yes! Am I apologizing? No! But let’s try it again, this has been fun for me. Just please don’t treat me like I’m some pro capper who knows how to make money sports betting. I don’t!
Nestor Cortes Under 1.5 Walks
Book: DraftKings
Price: +105
Projection: 1.52
Edge: 6.3%
Cortes hilariously gave up eight runs on five homers in his first start. He also walked five. A lot of people would think that makes it tough to believe he can walk zero or one today. But the model thinks he can.
Don’t let one start distract you from the 5.5% BB% he posted last year. I’d imagine that if you give up three homers on your first three pitches, you probably don’t want to throw too many trikes after that. And then you start wondering if your life even means anything and if you should just quite baseball altogether.
I’ve got him for 1.52 walks. That’s over 1.5, but the +105 makes it a good bet. Also, I have a little secret for you, The Bat X has this as even a better mark with its 1.4 projection on him. Let’s go!