Projection Powered Player Props - April 25
Stuart Durst has a couple Friday props to make sure your week ends the right way!
Hope everyone is having a fantastic Friday! Super busy week for me with the NFL draft, but coming in with some momentum after a 3-0 Wednesday newsletter! Let’s keep that going today!
Logan Gilbert Dominance
To Record a Win -115 ESPN
7+ K’s/Mets ML Parlay +105 & 10+ K’s +215
Over 18.5 Outs +120 FD
This is the most aggressive model projection of the season, with Logan Gilbert projected for 19.41 outs and 10.63 strikeouts tonight against the Marlins.
This may be the highest number we’ve seen, but its for good reason! Rather than being extremely aggressive on one prop I broke it down and attacked Gilbert in a couple different ways. He’s one of the few pitchers that can historically get deep in games, rack up the strikeouts, and somehow keep the pitch count down by avoiding walks.
Gilbert has been a bit up and down at times this season, but he’s recorded at least 7 strikeouts in every outing. That being -310 on DK is a great parlay piece for whatever favorites you like tonight (I went with Mets ML but plenty of solid choices). He has spectacular advanced metrics with a 38.1% whiff rate, 38% strikeout rate, 5.6% walk rate & 2.48 xERA/212 xBA and gets his best matchup of the season against the Marlins.
The Marlins also don’t get deep into counts, seeing the third fewest pitches per plate appearance on the season. Gilbert frequently worked into the 7th inning last season, giving him great upside for his strikeouts to live up to the projections tonight. Rather than going huge one one prop I broke it down for a couple smaller plays attacking different markets with his Win, o18.5 outs, and strikeout parlay for .5u each. I see plenty of upside to get deep into this games, and the strikeouts and win obviously correlate with that.