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Projection Powered Player Props - April 30

Projection Powered Player Props - April 30

Stuart Durst shares his best bets for today's loaded Wednesday slate!

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MonotoneBetting
Apr 30, 2025
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MLB Data Warehouse
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Projection Powered Player Props - April 30
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Tyler Anderson o4.5 Strikeouts

Odds: -140
Book: Draftkings
Projection: 6.21
Edge: 15.8

While Tyler Anderson can be a bit hit or miss at times, he’s gotten off to a great start currently sitting at 2-0 with a 2.60 ERA. He has 5+ strikeouts in 3/5 games this season, and the Mariners profile as the best matchup yet.

We have already seen 8 of 9 starting LHP go over this line this season versus Seattle, who currently strikeout at a top 6 rate in the league against left handed starters. They have looked better against righties, but this profiles as a brutal matchup. Looking deeper, most of the best Mariners hitters really struggle with the changeup, which is Anderson's best whiff generating pitch. They have 6 separate projected starters striking out at a 25% or higher rate vs left handed pitching.

We just saw Kochanowicz, who is one of the lowest strikeout rate guys in the league, pile up 6 strikeouts against them yesterday. With Anderson already pitching well, I agree with the model that he has plenty of success against this below average lineup.

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