Projection Powered Player Props - July 4

Stuart Durst is back with a couple MLB props before the fireworks start!

Hope everyone is enjoying the holiday! Figured I would sneak in a couple props for the degens looking for some action before the fireworks begin! Two plus money props, if we cash one we walk away happy.. and if both hit it’s looking like a very nice night! As always hit me with any questions you might have, and try not to pull a Jason Pierre-Paul…

Ronald Acuna Jr. o1.5 Total Bases

Odds: +105
Book: B65/DK

Charlie Morton has had a pretty inconsistent season, but one thing that has been consistent is his fastball getting absolutely crushed allowing 6 homers on a 9% barrel rate% so far this year. Because of that, he’s shifted to heavy use of the curveball (38%), which is his best pitch (still .263 BA allowed). That has made my process pretty simple when fading him this season, pick opposing batters that hit the curveball well and print money!

While the Braves sluggers do have underwhelming results against the pitch (including Ozuna not having a single hit against the curve this year?!?) Ronald Acuna Jr always comes through. He has a .335 xBA against the pitch this season after a .279 last year. Morton has been much worse vs RHH on the year allowing a .294 BAA to RHH as opposed to a .248 BAA to LHH. Acuna has also been much better vs RHP on the year as well, posting a .382 BA, and .657 SLG. Think this profiles as a great spot and I’m surprised we are getting plus money here.

Corey Seager o1.5 Total Bases

Odds: +100
Book: CZR