Projection Powered Player Props - July 3
Jon brings a handful of player props that either are going to win or lose, but hopefully they win.
Me and Stu both put out articles yesterday, so that might have been confusing. But hey, my picks were great. The Seager and Judge duo worked out great, Will Warren bombed as expected, and Shota Imanaga stayed under the 4.5 strikeouts.
So let’s keep it rolling today!
Brandon Walter Under 17.5 Outs
This is -140 on DraftKings. Walter is a young soft-tossing lefty who has had a ton of success this year between AAA and five starts in the Majors. He is heavily reliant on a sweeper and a changeup, and this will be his first start in Coors Field.
It just doesn’t seem likely that he’ll have a ton of success here. I do think he can pile up some strikeouts against the Rockies; that’s a pretty easy thing to do, but the line I’m more comfortable with is him staying under six innings here. The Rockies have been swinging the bat a lot better lately, they’re hitting .265/.320/.435 at home since June 1st. So they aren’t a total pushover offense. Tyler Freeman and Hunter Goodman have been fantastic, and Mickey Moniak and Ryan McMahon have had some success as well lately.
Joey Cantillo Under 3.5 Strikeouts
We get a +115 here on MGM. Cantillo is making a bit of an emergency start here for the Guardians as Luis Ortiz was scratched this morning. Cantillo has thrown 3, 2, 3.1, and 3.1 innings in his last four outings in AAA. He hasn’t thrown four innings all season long, so he’ll have to average more than a strikeout per inning to beat this line.
I’ll give him some credit, the guy can get K’s. He has a 33% K% in 12 minor league innings this year and a mark of 29% in his 21 appearances out of the Cleveland bullpen.
He’s up against the Cubs today and I’m projecting him for fewer than 55 pitches, so the ceiling is super capped on him here and I think this +115 line is great for an under 3.5