Projection Powered Player Props - July 9

Stuart Durst is back with 4 MLB props for today's loaded slate!

Nice start to the week on Monday, let’s keep that momentum going with today’s very large slate! Wednesday means all day baseball so make sure to get these in as soon as possible! As always, feel free to hit me with any questions if you have them!

Our Favorite Fades

Brandon Pfaadt o2.5 Earned Runs Allowed -125 DK
Pfaadt + Sugano 5+ Hits Allowed -151 DK

Brandon Pfaadt is arguably the most hittable pitcher in the league, ranking bottom 1% in xERA and xBA (.312/6.47). He’s arguably been the worst qualified starting pitcher in the league, and he gets a rough matchup against a good Padres offense. They come in with some solid recent form, and a good history against him. Pfaadt has also somehow been worse on the road this year, going over 2.5 earned runs in 7 of 9 road starts this year.

For Brandon Pfaadt, I’m also more inclined to go with the Earned Runs markets rather than F5 team total because I think it’s more likely he gets deeper in this one (17.5 Outs prop), and he’s struggled the third time around the order this year. The hit parlay combo is a little juicy but both of these guys are the exact archetype of high xBA low walk pitchers I’m looking to target. Juice is worth the squeeze here.

The model has Pfaadt projected for 5.94 hits allowed while Sugano is at 6.04

Mets F5 TT o2.5

Odds: -125
Book: Draftkings

Absolutely love when a Tomoyuki Sugano start falls on the same day as the newsletter, because we can continue to fade him!