Projection Powered Player Props - July 2
Stuart Durst is back with three more MLB player props!
Another good day yesterday, let’s keep the momentum going. Absolutely packed slate, feel free to hit me with any questions you have!
Tomoyuki Sugano o2.5 Earned Runs
Odds: -145
Book: Draftkings
We are going right back to the well fading Sugano once again. The only difference is I’m just sticking with the runs, and not taking his under 17.5 outs. While I do lean the under, the Orioles bullpen is absolutely toast after a couple tough outings, and length will be required from the Orioles starter. This plays into the earned runs vs a F5 team total bet, because I think the Rangers could get to him late even if he does get out to a good start (similar to 6.1 IP/4 ERA vs MIN & 7.0 IP 3 ER vs WSH).
I’ve watched him pretty closely since his debut (lot of under walks bets) and I just really don't think his stuff will play against good offensive lineups. For someone that lives in the zone and doesn't walk batters, Sugano has a problem with hard contact. He’s allowed 17 home runs on the season, with a 10.7% barrel rate, 38% hard-hit rate, and 26% fly-ball rate. Those numbers aren’t sustainable with a 5.28 K/9, which is second fewest in MLB. Grabbed some Corey Seager run scored & home run along with Adolis Garcia RBI.