Projection Powered Player Props - July 11
Stuart Durst is back with three props to end your week the right way!
Sorry for the late send but have been busy grinding NBA Summer League Action today. 0-2 on Wednesday with a couple rainouts (although the Fade Sugano train did make up for it yesterday). Check out my favorite MLB spots for tonight and hit me with any questions you have!
Mitchell Parker FADE TRAIN
Mitchell Parker u16.5 Outs -120 FD
Mitchell Parker o1.5 Walks -115 365
Mitchell Parker has had a rough run recently, and it doesn’t look like things are going to be getting much better tonight. Last outing we cashed his over earned runs prop at 2.5, and despite allowing 9 runs he stuck through 6 innings pitched to give his bullpen a break. I’ve been on a lot of earned runs prop overs for Washington because the pen has been so dead, but they finally had an off day and some starters getting length so that should be a problem.
In general I would also be cautious of overs in the outs market as we approach the All Star Break. Even if you have an edge in the projections it’s important to be careful as managers continue to act a bit more erratically with pulling starters. The projections are still in favor of the unders here, with his outs projected at 15.69 and walks at 2.29.
Parker has been pretty brutal on the road this season, where his ERA jumps from 4.04 to 5.66 with some huge hard contact problem. He’s bottom 3rd percentile in average exit velocity and hard hit rate, this is unsustainable for a guy that simply doesn’t get enough K’s/swing and miss.
The Brewers are #1 in WRC+ over the last 30 days against left handed pitching, and Parker is obviously in bad form. What makes them so appealing for both of these markets are their swing decisions, where they consistently rank as one of the least aggressive teams at the plate. Expecting them to work some long counts and force Mitchell into a couple walks tonight. The projections favor both of these plays and I like the idea of fading my nationals once again.