Projection Powered Player Props - July 2
Jon brings a handful of player props that either are going to win or lose, but hopefully they win.
The three double headers have caused a train wreck on the game-by-game previews side of things, and I’m slowly realizing that nobody even freaking plays DFS anymore. So I’ve been writing those previews basically for myself and like a dozen other people.
So today, we’re just going to hit some of my favorite props and matchup spots. Let’s do it.
Corey Seager vs. Tomoyuki Sugano
I think the league has figured out Sugano. He’s given up 16 earned runs on 32 hits in his last four starts with five homers allowed along the way. He now has a 14% K% and a 1.7 HR/9. He’s bad, and it was foolish to ever think he was good.
Against lefties:
13.3% K%, 3.7% BB%, 11.8% Brl%, 11 HR, .388 xwOBA, 4.33 JA ERA
There are few better spots for a hitter than a matchup with Sugano. Not only does he not strike guys out, he also doesn’t give away changes for loud contact by walking guys. It’s beautiful.
I’m pairing up Corey Seager with Aaron Judge (vs. Jose Berrios) for an over 1.5 total bases prop. That gets you +250 or so depending on where you’re buying it.
Logan Gilbert Under 1.5 ER -105
I don’t know if it’s possibly to correctly capture how good Logan Gilbert has been this year. He has a 1.47 JA ERA on a 32.6% K-BB%. A 32.6% K% is elite, a 32.6% K-BB% is silliness.
He’s given up eight earned runs in last two starts, recently returning from the IL. That might have some people thinking the guy isn’t quite right. But it’s not true. He has a 35.9% K%, a 3.1% BB%, and a 20.5% SwStr% since getting back. He’s been betetr than ever, but a .333 BABIP and a 25 HR/FB have resulted in those eight runs.
The Royals are a light-hitting offense. They have the fewer homers in baseball (58). And since hitting homers is often the only way to score on Gilbert, I think Logan Gilly holds them scoreless tonight.