Projection Powered Player Props - June 6
Stuart Durst has 3 player props to end your week the right way!
Sorry for the delay, but I wasn’t going to leave you guys hanging after a nice 4-0 Wednesday slate. Took everything in me to ignore the Patrick Corbin vs Nationals revenge game (which I will likely be attending)… so enjoy these 3 non-biased player props instead!
Colton Gordon u1.5 Walks + Mets ML
Odds: -101
Book: CZR
Projection: 1.17 BB
The walks market has been one of my most successful markets this season, and I love targeting an under in tonight’s Astros vs Guardians matchup. The model is also fully on board, with Colton Gordon projected at 1.17 walks tonight. Gordon is under this number in 3 of 4 starts this season, with his only loss coming in his MLB debut. Since shaking off the nerves, he’s continued to show the elite command that got hit called up.
One of my other favorite parts about this prop is he simply isn’t getting deep into games. Less innings means less opportunities to walk people, and the most pitches he’s thrown this season is 85. It’s unlikely he goes much more than 5IP, and I expect that control to hold up. Over the last 15 games the Guardians have posted the fifth lowest walk rate, showing a propensity to swing early in counts. The Mets take on the Rockies, who I will continue to fade on there rode to becoming the worst MLB team of the modern era.