MLB Data Warehouse

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MLB Data Warehouse
Projection Powered Player Props - May 7

Projection Powered Player Props - May 7

Stuart Durst is back with more props for today's slate!

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MonotoneBetting
May 07, 2025
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MLB Data Warehouse
MLB Data Warehouse
Projection Powered Player Props - May 7
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We have a loaded slate of baseball going all-day long today! Check out my favorite picks and hit me with any questions you might have!

Tyler Mahle o4.5 Strikeouts

Odds: -125
Book: Draftkings
Projection: 5.85
Edge: 14%

Absolutely loved seeing this as one of the top projected strikeout props in the model this morning. Mahle hasn’t really been matched up with any other high strikeout lineups except the Angles, where he had an impressive 9 strikeouts. He failed against the Cubs, Dodgers, and Giants but still went over in tougher matchups against the Athletics and Rays. The Red Sox are 4th in K% against righties + swinging strike percentage and profile as very aggressive in most swing metrics.

One of the other things I like about this is he also has had some good longevity in games this year, going over 5+ IP in 6 straight starts with 6+ IP in 4 of his last 5. This Red Sox lineup is definitely good against right handed pitching, but they also strikeout a lot. Mahle is the only qualified starting pitcher in baseball that hasn’t allowed a homer, along with his .212 SLG which is easily the best in MLB.

Gunnar Hoglund o3.5 Strikeouts

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