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Projection Powered Player Props - May 21

Projection Powered Player Props - May 21

Stuart Durst is back with 3 more MLB player props for today's slate!

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MonotoneBetting
May 21, 2025
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MLB Data Warehouse
MLB Data Warehouse
Projection Powered Player Props - May 21
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Its been a great start to the week, and I have 3 more props for today’s slate! Logan Webb starts soon, but Baldwin and Andujar start later tonight.

Logan Webb 18+ Outs/Phillies ML

Price: +107
Odds: Draftkings

Logan Webb at home is one of the most consistent pitchers in the MLB, and this is shaping up to be another good matchup. He’s 3-0 with a 0.52 ERA at home, only allowing 2 earned runs in 28.1 innings pitched. The price on it has gotten steamed like crazy, but I do still like under 1.5 earned runs at +135.

The Giants home stadium perfectly complements his game, and he’s currently projected for 18.57 outs by the model. While I do think he goes over the 6.1 IP number, 18 is such a key number that I like using that number as a parlay piece to mitigate the risk of him getting pulled between innings. The Giants have also had to use their high leverage arms frequently due to coming off a bunch of close games.

The Royals are also a very aggressive free swinging team, currently they have the 3rd lowest P/PA in the MLB. The offense hasn’t been great and there really aren’t many blow up spots outside of Bobby Witt and the beginning of that order. Webb will continue to attack the zone and I think the Royals offense will feed right into his efficient pitching style.

Drake Baldwin o1.5 H+R+RBI

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