Recent Hitter Data Analysis - July 5
A stat-fueled look at recent standout hitting performances.
It has been a couple of weeks since we’ve done one of these, so let’s talk about some hitters today!
One thing to give you first - a new dashboard! I will be taking screenshots from it quite a bit in this post, I have a feeling, so I’ll let you all have it free of charge. It’s a 15-Day Moving Averages dashboard, where you can just go pick a hitter and see their 15 day rolling plots for
OPS
Brl%
K%
GB%
xwOBA
Launch Angle
Contact%
The best hitters of June were clearly Shohei Ohtani and Ronald Acuna Jr. They both have been going absolutely nuts. Ohtani has hit 16 homers since June 1st with a 1.331 OPS. Acuna Jr. has hit 10 homers, stolen 18 bags, and has put up a 1.114 OPS in that time frame. Those two are far and way the leaders in fantasy points since June, and you’ll see that below.
Luis Robert has also gotten it all together of late, slashing .306/.379/.694 since June 1 with 12 homers and six steals. His season has, so far, been WAVEY - a very scientific term.
And yes there will be another downswing on that plot in the coming weeks, because it’s not really possible to go for a 1.300+ OPS for very long.
And yo how about Spencer Steer? Continues to get it done, and might even be pushing himself into some rookie of the year consideration if this keeps up. For the year:
354 PA, .292/.381/.505, 14 HR, 7% Brl%, 18% K%, 77% Cont%, 34% GB%
Since June 1:
129 PA, .298/.426/.519, 6 HR, 8% Brl%, 14% K%, 78% Cont%, 29% GB%
So he’s not really putting up the gawdy power numbers that other at the top of this list are. His barrel rate has been around league average all year. He’s making up for it by
A) Playing in Great American Ballpark
B) Launch Angle
This is as good of a launch angle histogram as you’ll find:
Highest bars concentrating around 25°, and not too much action below 0 - it’s very, very good - ESPECIALLY for a guy in Cincinnati.
Here’s the full OPS leaderboard for the last 3 weeks:
Last 3 Weeks - OPS Leaders
Shohei Ohtani (85 PA): 1.306 OPS
Ronald Acuna Jr. (89 PA): 1.212 OPS
Luis Robert (83 PA): 1.182 OPS
Matt Olson (85 PA): 1.157 OPS
Spencer Steer (78 PA): 1.118 OPS
Eddie Rosario (69 PA): 1.114 OPS
Mookie Betts (84 PA): 1.079 OPS
Juan Soto (91 PA): 1.076 OPS
Michael Harris II (72 PA): 1.075 OPS
Ozzie Albies (85 PA): 1.072 OPS
Kyle Tucker (83 PA): 1.05 OPS
Ketel Marte (74 PA): 1.032 OPS
Isaac Paredes (67 PA): 1.029 OPS
Lane Thomas (88 PA): 1.021 OPS
Tommy Pham (75 PA): 1.021 OPS
And now we go right into the fantasy points leaders. These lists are very similar most of the time, but we see some guys sneaking into the fantasy points list with
Steals (not a factor in OPS)
Playing time (playing every day at the top of the lineup helps a lot)
Last 3 Weeks - Fantasy Points Leaders
Total
Ronald Acuna Jr.: 310 Points
Shohei Ohtani: 262 Points
Matt Olson: 258 Points
Luis Robert: 254 Points
Ozzie Albies: 241 Points
Kyle Tucker: 229 Points
Fernando Tatis Jr.: 219 Points
Matt McLain: 217 Points
Mookie Betts: 215 Points
Juan Soto: 211 Points
Lane Thomas: 211 Points
Spencer Steer: 208 Points
Michael Harris II: 205 Points
Christian Walker: 200 Points
Christian Yelich: 200 Points
To look at the fantasy point scoring per-PA, it’s pretty similar to that list last. Maikel Garcia does show up here, which is interesting. On the year:
213 PA, .297/.349/.406, 3 HR, 13 SB, 22% K%, 5% Brl%, 82% Cont%, 50% GB%
Since June 1st:
119 PA, .324/.373/.444, 3 HR, 9 SB, 19% K%, 4.5% Brl%, 85% Cont%, 56% GB%
So, another young player with a lot of speed making a bunch of contact but keeping it mostly on the ground. That will hurt the power output, but it is notable that the guy does swing the bat pretty hard (50% Hard hit Rate%). I wouldn’t get very excited about him, but he should be a good average and steals guy with non-zero power.
Per PA
Ronald Acuna Jr.: 3.48 Pts/PA
Shohei Ohtani: 3.08 Pts/PA
Luis Robert: 3.06 Pts/PA
Matt Olson: 3.04 Pts/PA
Michael Harris II: 2.85 Pts/PA
Ozzie Albies: 2.84 Pts/PA
Kyle Tucker: 2.76 Pts/PA
Spencer Steer: 2.67 Pts/PA
Francisco Lindor: 2.62 Pts/PA
Ketel Marte: 2.61 Pts/PA
Matt McLain: 2.61 Pts/PA
Eddie Rosario: 2.59 Pts/PA
Mookie Betts: 2.56 Pts/PA
Justin Turner: 2.55 Pts/PA
Maikel Garcia: 2.51 Pts/PA
Brandon Nimmo somehow is among the barrels leaders with 11 over the last 3 weeks. For the year, he has a 9.7% Brl%. He’s hitting the ball in the air well this year (44% GB%), so that has helped his cause. I still don’t think he’s really going to be a power hitter, but interesting to see him racking up the barrels.
Blake Sabol also shows up here. He’s at a 13.5% Brl% on the year, but it comes with a 32% K% and a 64% Contact% - classic hard-swinger there. He’s probably available if you desperately need some homers, though!
Last 3 Weeks - Barrel Leaders
Shohei Ohtani: 15 Brls
Matt Olson: 14 Brls
Luis Robert: 13 Brls
Brandon Nimmo: 11 Brls
Corey Seager: 11 Brls
Adolis Garcia: 10 Brls
Christian Walker: 10 Brls
Ronald Acuna Jr.: 9 Brls
Lane Thomas: 9 Brls
Byron Buxton: 9 Brls
Eugenio Suarez: 9 Brls
Francisco Lindor: 9 Brls
Last 3 Weeks - Barrel/PA Leaders
Shohei Ohtani (84 PA): 17.9% Brl/PA
Matt Olson (85 PA): 16.5% Brl/PA
Jake Bauers (51 PA): 15.7% Brl/PA
Luis Robert (83 PA): 15.7% Brl/PA
Blake Sabol (52 PA): 15.4% Brl/PA
Brandon Nimmo (82 PA): 13.4% Brl/PA
Byron Buxton (69 PA): 13.0% Brl/PA
Corey Seager (87 PA): 12.6% Brl/PA
Christian Walker (82 PA): 12.2% Brl/PA
Eugenio Suarez (74 PA): 12.2% Brl/PA
And now to the magic formula qualifiers. We’re looking at hitters with high barrel rate and low strikeout rates at the same time.
I don’t see a ton to talk about, we have a lot of the usual suspects as well as some surprise names that I don’t think we should really be concerned with (Eddie Rosario).
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Hitters - Last 3 Weeks
Hitters with Brl% above 14% and K% below 20%
Christian Walker - 82 PA, 17.1 K%, 16.7 Brl%
Corey Seager - 87 PA, 17.2 K%, 17.7 Brl%
Eddie Rosario - 69 PA, 15.9 K%, 15.6 Brl%
Francisco Lindor - 74 PA, 17.6 K%, 18.4 Brl%
Ketel Marte - 74 PA, 18.9 K%, 14.6 Brl%
Marcell Ozuna - 78 PA, 17.9 K%, 14.3 Brl%
Matt Olson - 85 PA, 20.0 K%, 23.3 Brl%
Mookie Betts - 84 PA, 17.9 K%, 14.8 Brl%
Here’s a look at the Brl% vs. K% plot since June 1st. You can check that out yourself for free here.
Great to see Jack Suwinski showing up around the 25% K% mark. Also, Yainer Diaz continues to hit the ball very well when he’s in the lineup. He has a 13.6% Brl% and a 19.4% K% on the year in his 170 PAs. The .353 xwOBA is among the team leaders, and the playing time has been trending up - and you’d think it would continue to.
Bad and good luck hitters are next as measured by xwOBA - wOBA
Good news here for Josh Bell, Jesus Sanchez, and Gleyber Torres - a trio of hitters there that have had their moments but have been pretty disappointing recently. There may be better days ahead.
Last 3 Weeks - wOBA vs. xwOBA Comparison
Top 10
Josh Bell - 70 PA, 0.243 wOBA, 0.348 xwOBA, 0.105 Diff
Rowdy Tellez - 58 PA, 0.193 wOBA, 0.29 xwOBA, 0.097 Diff
Seiya Suzuki - 66 PA, 0.224 wOBA, 0.312 xwOBA, 0.088 Diff
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - 75 PA, 0.359 wOBA, 0.416 xwOBA, 0.057 Diff
Marcell Ozuna - 78 PA, 0.362 wOBA, 0.417 xwOBA, 0.055 Diff
J.D. Martinez - 77 PA, 0.268 wOBA, 0.323 xwOBA, 0.055 Diff
Keibert Ruiz - 67 PA, 0.256 wOBA, 0.306 xwOBA, 0.05 Diff
Jesus Sanchez - 62 PA, 0.285 wOBA, 0.335 xwOBA, 0.05 Diff
Gleyber Torres - 71 PA, 0.316 wOBA, 0.363 xwOBA, 0.047 Diff
Byron Buxton - 69 PA, 0.319 wOBA, 0.362 xwOBA, 0.043 Diff
The very good luck hitters are Albies, McCarthy, and Thomas. Those are all guys with good foot speed, and my version of xwOBA doesn’t consider that - so there’s a bias there just for full disclosure.
Elly has also over-performed, I’m sorry, he continues to strike out a ton (31%) and not get the ball in the air (14% FB% - seventh-worst in the league), but somehow he’s maintained an .839 OPS. He’ll certainly, certainly be a guy to beat his underlying numbers given the exit velo and the foot speed, but he’s way, way over the top here.
Bottom 10
Ozzie Albies - 87 PA, 0.454 wOBA, 0.336 xwOBA, -0.118 Diff
Jake McCarthy - 67 PA, 0.378 wOBA, 0.263 xwOBA, -0.115 Diff
Lane Thomas - 88 PA, 0.44 wOBA, 0.325 xwOBA, -0.115 Diff
Ezequiel Tovar - 61 PA, 0.415 wOBA, 0.306 xwOBA, -0.109 Diff
Isaac Paredes - 67 PA, 0.452 wOBA, 0.343 xwOBA, -0.109 Diff
Nico Hoerner - 85 PA, 0.345 wOBA, 0.239 xwOBA, -0.106 Diff
Luke Raley - 59 PA, 0.405 wOBA, 0.3 xwOBA, -0.105 Diff
Elly De La Cruz - 76 PA, 0.359 wOBA, 0.254 xwOBA, -0.105 Diff
Michael Harris II - 72 PA, 0.462 wOBA, 0.371 xwOBA, -0.091 Diff
Austin Hays - 63 PA, 0.38 wOBA, 0.29 xwOBA, -0.09 Diff
And the paywall will hit before we get to the rolling average peaking hitters, my favorite part of the post!