Recent Hitter Data Analysis - June 21
A stat-fueled look at recent standout hitting performances.
We have another week of hitter trends! We’re a day late, but here we go! This one is going to be short and sweet cause I have a lot going on.
Shohei Ohtani has just been going absolutely nuts. Since 5/31 he’s slashing .389/.483/.958 with 11 homers, a 27% Brl%, a 57% Hard%, and a 19.5% K%. He might be the best hitter in the league hands-down.
Look out for Jordan Walker. He is hitting .339/.418/.593 with 4 homers, a 10.6% Brl%, and a 17.9% K% over the last three weeks. The GB% is still high at 55%, but he’s not striking out much and hitting the ball very hard very often (62% Hard-Hit Rate). So that’s a very good sign. He’ll be productive even with a GB% above 50% provided that K% stays down, and the upside is absolutely nuclear if the GB% comes down below 50% while the K% stays down. Good stuff there, he set you back quite a bit during those first two months but he’s paying off in June and the outlook for the rest of the season is very rosey.
Christian Walker is also hitting well lately with a .352/.392/.662 line. He’s making a ton of contact (84%) and the K% is down below 12% this month. That’s crazy stuff, good for him after a slower start to the year.
Last 3 Weeks - OPS Leaders
Shohei Ohtani (88 PA): 1.447 OPS
Eddie Rosario (67 PA): 1.238 OPS
Fernando Tatis Jr. (87 PA): 1.23 OPS
Corey Seager (88 PA): 1.227 OPS
Corbin Carroll (83 PA): 1.17 OPS
Nolan Jones (78 PA): 1.119 OPS
Christian Walker (79 PA): 1.067 OPS
Ozzie Albies (79 PA): 1.044 OPS
Luis Arraez (80 PA): 1.036 OPS
Orlando Arcia (72 PA): 1.033 OPS
Jordan Walker (67 PA): 1.011 OPS
Ryan McMahon (85 PA): 0.993 OPS
Ketel Marte (77 PA): 0.989 OPS
Nick Castellanos (76 PA): 0.988 OPS
Austin Hays (70 PA): 0.985 OPS
Last 3 Weeks - Fantasy Points Leaders
Total
Shohei Ohtani: 309 Points
Fernando Tatis Jr.: 273 Points
Corbin Carroll: 262 Points
Corey Seager: 252 Points
Ronald Acuna Jr.: 241 Points
Eddie Rosario: 215 Points
Ozzie Albies: 213 Points
Nolan Jones: 206 Points
Jose Ramirez: 203 Points
Kyle Schwarber: 201 Points
Ketel Marte: 193 Points
Christian Walker: 192 Points
Mookie Betts: 190 Points
Christian Yelich: 190 Points
Justin Turner: 189 Points
Per PA
Shohei Ohtani: 3.51 Pts/PA
Eddie Rosario: 3.21 Pts/PA
Corbin Carroll: 3.16 Pts/PA
Fernando Tatis Jr.: 3.14 Pts/PA
Corey Seager: 2.86 Pts/PA
Ronald Acuna Jr.: 2.8 Pts/PA
Ozzie Albies: 2.7 Pts/PA
Nolan Jones: 2.64 Pts/PA
J.T. Realmuto: 2.56 Pts/PA
Ketel Marte: 2.51 Pts/PA
Leody Taveras: 2.49 Pts/PA
Jose Ramirez: 2.48 Pts/PA
Joey Wiemer: 2.44 Pts/PA
Christian Walker: 2.43 Pts/PA
Josh Naylor: 2.4 Pts/PA
Yainer Diaz stands out a bit here. He hasn’t been playing a ton (54 PAs the last 3 weeks, team max is 80), but he might be hitting his way into some extra appearances behind the plate or at DH. 15.6% Brl% this month with a 15% K%. He does not walk though (2%), so a bit of a free-swinger, and the GB% is high at 49% - so there’s some downside here, but this was one of those guys who set the world on fire in the minors so it’s good to see some signs of life here. He could be very interesting down the stretch, but he’ll probably stay in a part-time role regardless unless Maldonado gets hurt or the Yordan Alvarez thing turn into a long-term injury.
Last 3 Weeks - Barrel Leaders
Shohei Ohtani: 15 Brls
Corey Seager: 15 Brls
Ronald Acuna Jr.: 13 Brls
Kyle Schwarber: 10 Brls
J.T. Realmuto: 10 Brls
Joey Wiemer: 9 Brls
Christian Yelich: 9 Brls
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.: 9 Brls
Tommy Pham: 9 Brls
Nick Castellanos: 8 Brls
Yainer Diaz: 8 Brls
Bo Bichette: 8 Brls
Jose Ramirez: 8 Brls
Francisco Lindor: 8 Brls
Eddie Rosario: 8 Brls
Last 3 Weeks - Barrel/PA Leaders
Corey Seager (86 PA): 17.4% Brl/PA
Shohei Ohtani (87 PA): 17.2% Brl/PA
Tommy Pham (56 PA): 16.1% Brl/PA
J.T. Realmuto (66 PA): 15.2% Brl/PA
Ronald Acuna Jr. (86 PA): 15.1% Brl/PA
Yainer Diaz (56 PA): 14.3 Brl/PA
Ryan O'Hearn (51 PA): 13.7% Brl/PA
Luke Raley (45 PA): 13.3% Brl/PA
Josh Donaldson (46 PA): 13.0% Brl/PA
Andy Ibanez (47 PA): 12.8% Brl/PA
Triston Casas is once again a magic formula qualifier despite putting up fantasy production that has been somewhat mediocre. His .856 OPS this month is good, and everything has been improving throughout the year, but he hasn’t really had a big week that really wanted to have for fantasy. The profile is great though
19% K%
39% GB
9.7% Brl/PA
.376 xwOBA
I would probably take him as a top-10 1B for the rest of the year.
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Hitters - Last 3 Weeks
Hitters with Brl% above 14% and K% below 20%
Corey Seager - 86 PA, 17.4 K%, 23.1 Brl%
Eddie Rosario - 67 PA, 16.4 K%, 16.0 Brl%
Jorge Soler - 72 PA, 18.1 K%, 14.3 Brl%
Ronald Acuna Jr. - 86 PA, 11.6 K%, 19.1 Brl%
Shohei Ohtani - 87 PA, 19.5 K%, 26.8 Brl%
Triston Casas - 72 PA, 19.4 K%, 15.2 Brl%
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - 83 PA, 12.0 K%, 14.1 Brl%
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