Recent Hitter Data Analysis - June 13
A stat-fueled look at recent standout hitting performances.
Week 2 of hitter trends! The script has been run, and the output is here! Let’s run through this - a reminder, these posts are made to be quick. I don’t want to spend a ton of time on them, but when I can I’ll add some stuff as we go.
The league MVP over the last three weeks has quite possibly been Corbin Carroll with his 1.259 OPS. He’s now fourth in fantasy point scoring this season. He has a .982 OPS for the year with a 19.5% K%, a 10.2% Brl%, an 80% Contact%, and a solid 45% GB%. He is hitting the ball at a really good angle/velo combination for generating a bunch of hits, and obviously the elite speed hasn’t gone anywhere.
The top of the OPS list is always going to be over-performing a bit just by virtue of having a ridiculously high OPS, so we should note that Carroll’s .337 xwOBA for the year isn’t quite among the league’s elite, but that’s not a big problem for him with his consistent approach and foot speed. He’s great, and a no-doubt first-round pick if we were drafting again today.
Some other interesting names here are Naylor, France, Jung, and Steer. Naylor and France had very slow starts to the year but have turned it on lately. Josh Jung is just one of the best hitters in the league, I think. As for Steer, I’m not really sure what to make of him as he’s a guy who doesn’t hit the ball incredibly hard (5.3% Brl%, 88.5 EV), but he’s young and skilled and in a good ballpark, so he can be picked up where available.
The full leaderboard:
Last 3 Weeks - OPS Leaders
Corbin Carroll (79 PA): 1.259 OPS
Ryan McMahon (89 PA): 1.126 OPS
Shohei Ohtani (86 PA): 1.112 OPS
Jorge Soler (73 PA): 1.1 OPS
Freddie Freeman (80 PA): 1.082 OPS
Josh Naylor (70 PA): 1.054 OPS
J.D. Martinez (73 PA): 1.022 OPS
Ty France (75 PA): 1.016 OPS
Nick Castellanos (82 PA): 1.01 OPS
Mookie Betts (82 PA): 0.996 OPS
Josh Jung (78 PA): 0.98 OPS
Corey Seager (84 PA): 0.964 OPS
Marcell Ozuna (68 PA): 0.956 OPS
Spencer Steer (84 PA): 0.931 OPS
Matt McLain (97 PA): 0.93 OPS
A whole lot of the same in the fantasy points leaders, I have no further comment on the raw totals:
Last 3 Weeks - Fantasy Points Leaders
Total
Corbin Carroll: 270 Points
Shohei Ohtani: 245 Points
Ryan McMahon: 239 Points
Mookie Betts: 215 Points
Fernando Tatis Jr.: 210 Points
Ronald Acuna Jr.: 205 Points
Freddie Freeman: 205 Points
Matt McLain: 203 Points
Spencer Steer: 200 Points
Corey Seager: 198 Points
J.D. Martinez: 197 Points
Jonathan India: 188 Points
Wander Franco: 186 Points
Julio Rodriguez: 183 Points
Jorge Soler: 182 Points
J.D. Martinez has been sneaky good this year with 16 homers on a 17.9% Brl%. He has found the fountain of youth once again. It’s possible he’s selling out for power a bit more given his declining K% (28.8%) and Contact% (66.2%). That opens him up for some brutal stretches if he’s really going to strike out that much, but he’s one of the more skilled hitters of recent history so I have confidence he can keep “over-performing” in this way. Dodgers Stadium is a great fit for him.
Joey Wiemer is a pretty interesting name to look at. He is your classic sell out for power hitter with a 28.4% K% and a 66.6% Contact% but a high 10.4% Brl%. Since May 15th he has a 16.7% Brl% and a 34.5% K%, so really pushing it there. He hits the ball in the air a ton (33% vs. a league average of 26%). This makes him a low batting average player, for sure, but he has really good foot speed, which helps:
He’s about as fast as C.J. Abrams and has gotten the ball up to 112 miles per hour, so that’s a good skillset. The strikeouts and lack of playing time against lefties keep him on the margins, but he’s capable of having some monstrous games.
Per PA
Corbin Carroll: 3.42 Pts/PA
Shohei Ohtani: 2.85 Pts/PA
J.D. Martinez: 2.7 Pts/PA
Ryan McMahon: 2.69 Pts/PA
Mookie Betts: 2.62 Pts/PA
Freddie Freeman: 2.56 Pts/PA
Wander Franco: 2.55 Pts/PA
Fernando Tatis Jr.: 2.5 Pts/PA
Jorge Soler: 2.49 Pts/PA
Josh Naylor: 2.49 Pts/PA
Spencer Steer: 2.38 Pts/PA
Joey Wiemer: 2.38 Pts/PA
Ronald Acuna Jr.: 2.36 Pts/PA
Corey Seager: 2.36 Pts/PA
Ty France: 2.32 Pts/PA
Hey don’t look now but Matt McLain is barreling the ball! He’s up to an 11% Brl% on the year and has the K% under 27% after that slow start in that regard (was over 40% his first week or so).
Trent Grisham (17.1% Brl%) has also seemed to add some swing speed this year, but it’s empty power with a 29% K% and a 69% Cont%. His batting average continues to be miserable at .194, and the xBA isn’t much better at .209.
Last 3 Weeks - Barrel Leaders
Shohei Ohtani: 11 Brls
Ronald Acuna Jr.: 11 Brls
Corey Seager: 10 Brls
Nick Castellanos: 10 Brls
Kyle Schwarber: 10 Brls
Freddie Freeman: 10 Brls
Matt McLain: 9 Brls
Ryan McMahon: 9 Brls
Austin Riley: 9 Brls
Trent Grisham: 9 Brls
Bobby Witt Jr.: 9 Brls
Tommy Pham: 9 Brls
Francisco Lindor: 9 Brls
Tommy Pham is taking the extra playing time and running with it. We’ve seen him go on runs where he looks elite quite a few times over the last couple of seasons. I wouldn’t look at him as a long-term solution, but if you’re into the streaks thing - you can ride the wave there (the wave that doesn’t actually exist, mind you).
Last 3 Weeks - Barrel/PA Leaders
Tommy Pham (42 PA): 21.4% Brl/PA
Aaron Judge (47 PA): 17.0% Brl/PA
Keibert Ruiz (52 PA): 15.4% Brl/PA
Gunnar Henderson (52 PA): 15.4% Brl/PA
Trent Grisham (61 PA): 14.7% Brl/PA
Freddie Freeman (78 PA): 12.8% Brl/PA
Shohei Ohtani (86 PA): 12.8% Brl/PA
Ronald Acuna Jr. (87 PA): 12.6% Brl/PA
Ramon Urias (40 PA): 12.5% Brl/PA
Bobby Witt Jr. (72 PA): 12.5% Brl/PA
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Hitters - Last 3 Weeks
Hitters with Brl% above 14% and K% below 20%
Bobby Witt Jr. - 72 PA, 18.1 K%, 16.4 Brl%
Corey Seager - 83 PA, 16.9 K%, 15.9 Brl%
Francisco Lindor - 76 PA, 19.7 K%, 16.7 Brl%
Freddie Freeman - 78 PA, 12.8 K%, 16.9 Brl%
Josh Naylor - 68 PA, 11.8 K%, 14.3 Brl%
Nick Castellanos - 82 PA, 19.5 K%, 16.9 Brl%
Ronald Acuna Jr. - 87 PA, 11.5 K%, 14.9 Brl%
Last 3 Weeks - wOBA vs. xwOBA Comparison
Top 10 - Bad Luck Hitters
Bobby Witt Jr. - 72 PA, 0.337 wOBA, 0.44 xwOBA, 0.103 Diff
Kyle Schwarber - 84 PA, 0.336 wOBA, 0.436 xwOBA, 0.1 Diff
Tommy Edman - 70 PA, 0.209 wOBA, 0.308 xwOBA, 0.099 Diff
Anthony Volpe - 59 PA, 0.156 wOBA, 0.253 xwOBA, 0.097 Diff
Rafael Devers - 75 PA, 0.295 wOBA, 0.392 xwOBA, 0.097 Diff
Francisco Lindor - 76 PA, 0.279 wOBA, 0.369 xwOBA, 0.09 Diff
Nolan Gorman - 68 PA, 0.215 wOBA, 0.292 xwOBA, 0.077 Diff
Trea Turner - 83 PA, 0.281 wOBA, 0.356 xwOBA, 0.075 Diff
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - 84 PA, 0.306 wOBA, 0.377 xwOBA, 0.071 Diff
Bryce Harper - 77 PA, 0.346 wOBA, 0.413 xwOBA, 0.067 Diff
Bottom 10 - Good Luck Hitters
Corbin Carroll - 79 PA, 0.527 wOBA, 0.365 xwOBA, -0.162 Diff
Jorge Soler - 73 PA, 0.462 wOBA, 0.381 xwOBA, -0.081 Diff
Bryson Stott - 76 PA, 0.338 wOBA, 0.26 xwOBA, -0.078 Diff
Isaac Paredes - 59 PA, 0.373 wOBA, 0.297 xwOBA, -0.076 Diff
Josh Naylor - 68 PA, 0.455 wOBA, 0.381 xwOBA, -0.074 Diff
Ty France - 75 PA, 0.435 wOBA, 0.364 xwOBA, -0.071 Diff
Orlando Arcia - 73 PA, 0.346 wOBA, 0.275 xwOBA, -0.071 Diff
Jeremy Pena - 71 PA, 0.372 wOBA, 0.301 xwOBA, -0.071 Diff
Spencer Steer - 84 PA, 0.411 wOBA, 0.34 xwOBA, -0.071 Diff
Luis Arraez - 78 PA, 0.413 wOBA, 0.342 xwOBA, -0.071 Diff
Don’t worry about Carroll there, you can’t possible hit for a .527 wOBA and not show up here, the .365 expected mark is just fine.
Looks like Naylor has run into some good luck after suffering from bad luck for a long time to start the year:
Season-Best 15-Day Rolling Performances
Players at or near their peaks in 15-day rolling stats
This is probably the best part of the post, I’ve never seen anybody do anything like this - and it’s a really good tool for spotting the trends. Because of that, this is where I’m putting the paywall! Subscribe today to get everything I do here, you can read all about that here. At the end of this, we spot three hitters currently near their season-best performances in both barrel rate and strikeout rate.