Recent Pitcher Data Analysis - July 19th
A stat-fueled look at recent standout pitching performances.
I developed this script and post idea about seven weeks ago with the thought of putting this out every week, but it’s hasn’t happened that way. We haven’t been able to get the Stuff+ data update on a weekly basis, and some other stuff has been taking my time - but we can blast one out today!
Drew Haugen hooked me up and got the Stuff+ data all ready to go (it’s all up to date to yesterday on the dashboard and Excel sheets!), so let’s rip through another recent pitcher trends and analysis piece.
Last 3 Weeks - Leaders
Not a ton of surprises at the top. Maybe some people are surprised by Glasnow’s strikeout dominance, but I’m not. He’s been a deGrom/Strider type in terms of K% for awhile now, he just hasn’t been able to stay on the field.
The interesting names here are Domingo German, who continues to get it done with that curveball. He has a great 15% SwStr% on the season and the K% is up to 25% for the year. He’s definitely been one of the better free SP pickups of the season.
We also see Griffin Canning here. He’s been really impressing me lately and I think his career might be about to really take off.
He has a very strong four-seamer and slider combo, and then he backs it up with a pretty good changeup as well. Not too many guys are going 14% SwStr% and 49%+ Strike%, and the 47% GB% is the cherry on top. The Angels might have to back off the innings with him soon if they think he’s a part of their future, but I think he’s one of the most undervalued fantasy pitchers in the league right now regardless of that.
Hunter Brown is also picking things up with at least six strikeouts in his last five outings.
K%
Tyler Glasnow: 40.9 K%
Blake Snell: 38.9 K%
Spencer Strider: 38.8 K%
Joe Ryan: 35.2 K%
Domingo German: 33.7 K%
Freddy Peralta: 33.3 K%
Joe Musgrove: 33.0 K%
Griffin Canning: 32.6 K%
Pablo Lopez: 32.1 K%
Hunter Brown: 31.8 K%
Logan Webb: 31.7 K%
Reid Detmers: 31.5 K%
Max Scherzer: 31.2 K%
Framber Valdez: 30.9 K%
Jesus Luzardo: 30.8 K%
Zach Eflin is making us forget about George Kirby. He has gone four straight outings without walking a better. Luis Castillo is doing similar things, and that’s after he had a growing BB% in the middle of the season there, so that’s extremely good to see.
A name that is on both of these lists is Joe Musgrove. He has 38 strikeouts and 3 walks over his last five starts. That’s with a 15% SwStr% and a 52.3% Strike% - he’s been one of the game’s best pitchers.
BB%
Zach Eflin: 0.0 BB%
Kyle Hendricks: 1.0 BB%
Luis Castillo: 1.0 BB%
Seth Lugo: 1.1 BB%
Brayan Bello: 1.3 BB%
Zack Wheeler: 2.0 BB%
Austin Gomber: 2.1 BB%
Braxton Garrett: 2.4 BB%
Cristopher Sanchez: 2.4 BB%
Logan Webb: 2.4 BB%
Justin Steele: 2.9 BB%
Logan Gilbert: 2.9 BB%
Ryne Nelson: 3.1 BB%
Joe Musgrove: 3.2 BB%
Dane Dunning: 3.7 BB%
We care much less about ground balls than strikeouts and walks, but it’s meaningful nonetheless. We see Canning here again, as well as some less exciting fantasy arms like Medina, Gibson, and Singer.
The hitters faced have more to say about GB% than they do about K% and BB% - so this is subject to a bit more randomness, but it’s a good sign for all of these names - especially the lower K guys who really need to depend on turning contact into outs.
GB%
Steven Matz: 63.0 GB%
Luis Medina: 59.3 GB%
Kyle Gibson: 58.3 GB%
Nathan Eovaldi: 56.2 GB%
Cristopher Sanchez: 55.4 GB%
Griffin Canning: 55.1 GB%
Brady Singer: 54.5 GB%
Sonny Gray: 54.4 GB%
Aaron Nola: 54.1 GB%
Charlie Morton: 54.0 GB%
Sandy Alcantara: 53.2 GB%
Carlos Carrasco: 52.5 GB%
Logan Webb: 51.9 GB%
Marcus Stroman: 51.7 GB%
Rich Hill: 51.4 GB%
Magic formula time!
Kyle Bradish has been hanging around in the magic formula v1 for awhile now with a K-BB% staying above 20% and the GB% staying above 45%. He’s been great since a pretty rough start to the year.
And then Glasnow adding a 47% GB% to a 36% K-BB% is just silliness. I’m not sure how anybody is going to score on this guy moving forward.
K%, BB%, GB% Magic Formula
Chris Bassitt: 27.7 K%, 4.3% BB%, 46.8% GB%
Hunter Brown: 31.8 K%, 5.9% BB%, 44.2% GB%
Jose Berrios: 28.0 K%, 4.3% BB%, 45.2% GB%
Kyle Bradish: 27.3 K%, 6.1% BB%, 47.7% GB%
Logan Webb: 31.7 K%, 2.4% BB%, 51.9% GB%
Tyler Glasnow: 40.9 K%, 5.4% BB%, 46.9% GB%
Zack Wheeler: 27.7 K%, 2.0% BB%, 50.0% GB%
The newer version of the magic formula here shows pitchers with a 14%+ SwStr% and a Ball% below 34%. So these are guys getting whiffs without wasting many pitches out of the zone.
This list is pretty reliably made up of stud pitchers, so it’s a vote of confidence for developing guys like Bailey Ober and Reid Detmers. But let’s not overreact to seeing Steven Matz’s name here. He does this from time to time, I would expect a decline pretty soon - but maybe I’m wrong about that and he’s really figured something out!
SwStr% + Ball% Magic Formula
Andrew Heaney: 14.5 SwStr%, 33.3% Ball%
Bailey Ober: 15.7 SwStr%, 32.8% Ball%
Domingo German: 19.5 SwStr%, 32.9% Ball%
Framber Valdez: 16.2 SwStr%, 32.5% Ball%
Gerrit Cole: 15.1 SwStr%, 32.4% Ball%
Joe Musgrove: 15.4 SwStr%, 33.6% Ball%
Lance Lynn: 20.5 SwStr%, 34.0% Ball%
Logan Gilbert: 15.0 SwStr%, 33.1% Ball%
Luis Castillo: 15.6 SwStr%, 29.4% Ball%
Pablo Lopez: 16.0 SwStr%, 30.5% Ball%
Reid Detmers: 15.9 SwStr%, 32.9% Ball%
Sandy Alcantara: 14.1 SwStr%, 31.4% Ball%
Spencer Strider: 23.9 SwStr%, 31.7% Ball%
Steven Matz: 14.0 SwStr%, 33.9% Ball%
Zack Wheeler: 14.2 SwStr%, 33.5% Ball%
And now we hit the paywall before we get to the recent CHANGES stuff - which includes pitchers with improving Stuff+. Sign up today to get this and everything else going on on this blog!