Recent Pitcher Data Analysis - June 7
A stat-fueled look at recent standout hitting performances.
I have kept my promise thus far! It’s Wednesday and I’m bringing you another new, weekly, automated post! This one is a lot like yesterday, but it looks at recent pitcher performances.
Lots of stuff below, and I think it will be very helpful as we get into the middle of the year.
Like the others, it’s free today - but it will be paywalled moving forward. Become a paid sub to get everything all at once!
First, we start with some general leaderboards. I give you the last 3 weeks’ leaders in K%, BB%, and GB%. Nothing more to say about those, so here you go:
Last 3 Weeks - Leaders
K%
Hunter Greene: 42.0 K%
Michael Kopech: 40.0 K%
Spencer Strider: 36.6 K%
Jesus Luzardo: 35.6 K%
Tyler Wells: 34.8 K%
Kodai Senga: 34.1 K%
Hunter Brown: 34.0 K%
Kevin Gausman: 33.6 K%
Shohei Ohtani: 33.3 K%
Luis Castillo: 33.3 K%
Logan Webb: 32.4 K%
Aaron Nola: 32.0 K%
Clayton Kershaw: 31.3 K%
Merrill Kelly: 30.6 K%
James Paxton: 30.3 K%
BB%
Miles Mikolas: 0.9 BB%
Zack Greinke: 2.5 BB%
George Kirby: 2.6 BB%
Max Scherzer: 2.7 BB%
Julio Teheran: 3.1 BB%
Jesus Luzardo: 3.4 BB%
Luke Weaver: 3.5 BB%
Chris Bassitt: 3.8 BB%
Zack Wheeler: 3.9 BB%
Logan Gilbert: 4.1 BB%
Zach Eflin: 4.1 BB%
Michael Kopech: 4.2 BB%
Michael Lorenzen: 4.3 BB%
Bryce Miller: 4.5 BB%
Yu Darvish: 4.7 BB%
GB%
Marcus Stroman: 65.8 GB%
Logan Webb: 62.2 GB%
Alex Wood: 60.5 GB%
Hunter Brown: 58.9 GB%
Framber Valdez: 57.9 GB%
Alex Cobb: 57.7 GB%
Josh Fleming: 57.4 GB%
Zach Eflin: 56.9 GB%
Adrian Houser: 56.6 GB%
Ranger Suarez: 56.1 GB%
Colin Rea: 54.2 GB%
Edward Cabrera: 53.6 GB%
Carlos Carrasco: 53.5 GB%
Clarke Schmidt: 52.5 GB%
Shohei Ohtani: 52.4 GB%
Then we move to some classic JA Magic Formulas! The first one is this criteria:
→ K% above 27%
→ BB% below 7%
→ GB% above 43%
Tough to do, here are the six names currently qualifying over the last 21 days:
K%, BB%, GB% Magic Formula
Braxton Garrett: 28.9 K%, 6.0% BB%, 50.0% GB%
Edward Cabrera: 30.0 K%, 6.7% BB%, 53.6% GB%
Hunter Brown: 34.0 K%, 6.4% BB%, 58.9% GB%
Jesus Luzardo: 35.6 K%, 3.4% BB%, 51.9% GB%
Logan Webb: 32.4 K%, 5.4% BB%, 62.2% GB%
Luis Castillo: 33.3 K%, 6.9% BB%, 45.2% GB%
The next one, and a new one - is:
→ SwStr% above 13%
→ Ball% below 34%
The league average SwStr% is 12% and the league average Ball% is 36%. So these are pitchers outperforming the average significantly in both. We like this because we want EFFICIENT NASTINESS. If you can get a bunch of whiffs without throwing too many balls, you’ll have some serious success, here you go:
SwStr% + Ball% Magic Formula
Braxton Garrett: 18.6 SwStr%, 31.7% Ball%
Jon Gray: 15.7 SwStr%, 32.2% Ball%
Logan Gilbert: 15.1 SwStr%, 29.9% Ball%
Max Scherzer: 17.0 SwStr%, 30.8% Ball%
Michael Wacha: 14.5 SwStr%, 31.9% Ball%
Pablo Lopez: 15.2 SwStr%, 33.2% Ball%
Shane McClanahan: 15.8 SwStr%, 31.3% Ball%
Not a bad list of pitchers! And vindication for the continues success of Garrett, Gray, and Wacha.
The rest of the post hones in on how things have changed in the last three weeks. I compare the last three weeks with all of the 2023 data prior to these last three weeks to see which pitchers have performed better and worse recently:
Last 3 Weeks - Changes
Comparing Last 3 Weeks Stats to Prior
K% Improvers
League average: 23%
Michael Kopech: 40.0% K% Last 3 Weeks, +18.6% from prior
Aaron Nola: 32.0% K% Last 3 Weeks, +12.8% from prior
Tyler Wells: 34.8% K% Last 3 Weeks, +12.4% from prior
Hunter Greene: 42.0% K% Last 3 Weeks, +12.1% from prior
Jesus Luzardo: 35.6% K% Last 3 Weeks, +10.3% from prior
Jon Gray: 27.1% K% Last 3 Weeks, +9.7% from prior
Hunter Brown: 34.0% K% Last 3 Weeks, +8.9% from prior
Matthew Boyd: 28.2% K% Last 3 Weeks, +8.3% from prior
Kodai Senga: 34.1% K% Last 3 Weeks, +7.7% from prior
Logan Webb: 32.4% K% Last 3 Weeks, +7.7% from prior
K% Decliners
Sonny Gray: 15.5 K% Last 3 Weeks, -15.3 from prior
Zac Gallen: 18.6 K% Last 3 Weeks, -12.9 from prior
Kyle Freeland: 6.7 K% Last 3 Weeks, -11.7 from prior
Cristian Javier: 19.7 K% Last 3 Weeks, -8.8 from prior
Andrew Heaney: 19.1 K% Last 3 Weeks, -7.5 from prior
Shane Bieber: 11.4 K% Last 3 Weeks, -7.1 from prior
Taijuan Walker: 15.2 K% Last 3 Weeks, -6.8 from prior
Lance Lynn: 20.3 K% Last 3 Weeks, -6.3 from prior
Spencer Strider: 36.6 K% Last 3 Weeks, -6.3 from prior
Nathan Eovaldi: 21.2 K% Last 3 Weeks, -6.0 from prior
Sandy Alcantara: 17.1 K% Last 3 Weeks, -5.8 from prior
JP Sears: 18.8 K% Last 3 Weeks, -5.8 from prior
Mitch Keller: 24.3 K% Last 3 Weeks, -5.8 from prior
Zach Eflin: 22.4 K% Last 3 Weeks, -5.3 from prior
Gerrit Cole: 22.4 K% Last 3 Weeks, -4.8 from prior
BB% Improvers
League average: 8.5%
Edward Cabrera: 6.7% BB% Last 3 Weeks, -11.6% from prior
Michael Kopech: 4.2% BB% Last 3 Weeks, -10.4% from prior
Chris Bassitt: 3.8% BB% Last 3 Weeks, -7.3% from prior
Shane McClanahan: 5.1% BB% Last 3 Weeks, -6.6% from prior
Jack Flaherty: 8.0% BB% Last 3 Weeks, -6.4% from prior
Miles Mikolas: 0.9% BB% Last 3 Weeks, -5.5% from prior
MacKenzie Gore: 7.2% BB% Last 3 Weeks, -4.7% from prior
Jesus Luzardo: 3.4% BB% Last 3 Weeks, -4.0% from prior
Jon Gray: 5.7% BB% Last 3 Weeks, -3.0% from prior
Freddy Peralta: 6.7% BB% Last 3 Weeks, -2.9% from prior
BB% Decliners
Yusei Kikuchi: 13.8 BB% Last 3 Weeks, +9.2% from prior
Lucas Giolito: 14.0 BB% Last 3 Weeks, +9.0% from prior
Josiah Gray: 16.9 BB% Last 3 Weeks, +7.5% from prior
Patrick Corbin: 10.3 BB% Last 3 Weeks, +5.8% from prior
Zac Gallen: 9.3 BB% Last 3 Weeks, +5.6% from prior
Ryne Nelson: 11.6 BB% Last 3 Weeks, +5.5% from prior
Trevor Williams: 11.1 BB% Last 3 Weeks, +5.3% from prior
Lance Lynn: 12.2 BB% Last 3 Weeks, +4.8% from prior
Anthony DeSclafani: 7.4 BB% Last 3 Weeks, +4.8% from prior
Kevin Gausman: 8.4 BB% Last 3 Weeks, +4.3% from prior
Jose Berrios: 9.9 BB% Last 3 Weeks, +4.2% from prior
Sandy Alcantara: 10.5 BB% Last 3 Weeks, +4.0% from prior
Joe Ryan: 7.7 BB% Last 3 Weeks, +4.0% from prior
Clayton Kershaw: 9.0 BB% Last 3 Weeks, +3.8% from prior
Patrick Sandoval: 11.6 BB% Last 3 Weeks, +3.7% from prior
Strike% Improvers
League average: 46%
Logan Webb: 55.3% Strike% Last 3 Weeks, +7.3% from prior
Michael Kopech: 51.3% Strike% Last 3 Weeks, +7.0% from prior
Steven Matz: 51.2% Strike% Last 3 Weeks, +5.9% from prior
Michael Wacha: 51.8% Strike% Last 3 Weeks, +5.5% from prior
Blake Snell: 46.2% Strike% Last 3 Weeks, +4.7% from prior
Kodai Senga: 48.9% Strike% Last 3 Weeks, +4.5% from prior
Jon Gray: 50.6% Strike% Last 3 Weeks, +4.5% from prior
Aaron Nola: 51.1% Strike% Last 3 Weeks, +4.4% from prior
Nestor Cortes: 51.6% Strike% Last 3 Weeks, +4.2% from prior
Tyler Wells: 49.9% Strike% Last 3 Weeks, +3.6% from prior
Strike% Decliners
Cristian Javier: 40.9 Strike% Last 3 Weeks, -7.9% from prior
Lance Lynn: 42.0 Strike% Last 3 Weeks, -7.0% from prior
Taijuan Walker: 39.8 Strike% Last 3 Weeks, -6.1% from prior
Mitch Keller: 47.3 Strike% Last 3 Weeks, -6.0% from prior
Spencer Strider: 53.4 Strike% Last 3 Weeks, -6.0% from prior
Zac Gallen: 43.4 Strike% Last 3 Weeks, -5.6% from prior
Framber Valdez: 42.3 Strike% Last 3 Weeks, -4.5% from prior
Shane Bieber: 41.7 Strike% Last 3 Weeks, -3.9% from prior
Patrick Sandoval: 41.1 Strike% Last 3 Weeks, -3.8% from prior
Sonny Gray: 43.9 Strike% Last 3 Weeks, -3.6% from prior
Patrick Corbin: 39.3 Strike% Last 3 Weeks, -3.3% from prior
Reid Detmers: 45.7 Strike% Last 3 Weeks, -3.3% from prior
Drew Smyly: 43.4 Strike% Last 3 Weeks, -3.2% from prior
Joey Wentz: 42.9 Strike% Last 3 Weeks, -2.9% from prior
Anthony DeSclafani: 41.2 Strike% Last 3 Weeks, -2.8% from prior
Ball% Improvers
League average: 36%
Edward Cabrera: 37.0% Ball% Last 3 Weeks, -5.6% from prior
Steven Matz: 31.6% Ball% Last 3 Weeks, -5.6% from prior
Michael Kopech: 35.4% Ball% Last 3 Weeks, -4.8% from prior
Michael Wacha: 31.9% Ball% Last 3 Weeks, -4.5% from prior
Nestor Cortes: 31.3% Ball% Last 3 Weeks, -4.2% from prior
Logan Webb: 29.5% Ball% Last 3 Weeks, -3.8% from prior
Logan Gilbert: 29.9% Ball% Last 3 Weeks, -3.6% from prior
Kyle Freeland: 33.0% Ball% Last 3 Weeks, -3.0% from prior
Yu Darvish: 33.5% Ball% Last 3 Weeks, -2.7% from prior
Hunter Brown: 34.7% Ball% Last 3 Weeks, -2.5% from prior
Ball% Decliners
Lance Lynn: 42.0 Ball% Last 3 Weeks, +7.6% from prior
Cristian Javier: 42.0 Ball% Last 3 Weeks, +6.8% from prior
Clayton Kershaw: 35.0 Ball% Last 3 Weeks, +4.6% from prior
Mitch Keller: 34.7 Ball% Last 3 Weeks, +4.5% from prior
Lucas Giolito: 39.2 Ball% Last 3 Weeks, +4.4% from prior
Spencer Strider: 34.1 Ball% Last 3 Weeks, +4.3% from prior
Noah Syndergaard: 37.0 Ball% Last 3 Weeks, +4.3% from prior
Taijuan Walker: 41.4 Ball% Last 3 Weeks, +4.3% from prior
Joey Wentz: 39.2 Ball% Last 3 Weeks, +4.2% from prior
Johan Oviedo: 39.9 Ball% Last 3 Weeks, +4.0% from prior
Zac Gallen: 38.1 Ball% Last 3 Weeks, +3.7% from prior
Patrick Corbin: 38.9 Ball% Last 3 Weeks, +3.6% from prior
Trevor Williams: 39.3 Ball% Last 3 Weeks, +3.5% from prior
Luis Castillo: 35.5 Ball% Last 3 Weeks, +3.2% from prior
Shane Bieber: 36.8 Ball% Last 3 Weeks, +3.1% from prior
Stuff+ Gainers
League average: 100
Tanner Houck: 112.3 Stuff+ Last 3 Weeks, +23.4 from prior
Aaron Nola: 97.2 Stuff+ Last 3 Weeks, +19.4 from prior
Alex Cobb: 103.0 Stuff+ Last 3 Weeks, +16.7 from prior
Luis Castillo: 129.2 Stuff+ Last 3 Weeks, +15.8 from prior
Bryce Elder: 65.8 Stuff+ Last 3 Weeks, +15.7 from prior
Noah Syndergaard: 81.2 Stuff+ Last 3 Weeks, +15.1 from prior
Hunter Brown: 100.8 Stuff+ Last 3 Weeks, +14.9 from prior
Logan Gilbert: 111.1 Stuff+ Last 3 Weeks, +12.3 from prior
Jack Flaherty: 117.3 Stuff+ Last 3 Weeks, +11.9 from prior
Shane Bieber: 88.7 Stuff+ Last 3 Weeks, +9.7 from prior
Blake Snell: 126.0 Stuff+ Last 3 Weeks, +9.6 from prior
Trevor Williams: 77.8 Stuff+ Last 3 Weeks, +9.1 from prior
Cal Quantrill: 97.2 Stuff+ Last 3 Weeks, +8.6 from prior
Pablo Lopez: 132.3 Stuff+ Last 3 Weeks, +8.2 from prior
Ryne Nelson: 114.8 Stuff+ Last 3 Weeks, +7.7 from prior
Stuff+ Decliners
Taijuan Walker: 53.0 Stuff+ Last 3 Weeks, -28.0 from prior
Austin Gomber: 34.0 Stuff+ Last 3 Weeks, -25.0 from prior
Joey Wentz: 49.7 Stuff+ Last 3 Weeks, -22.5 from prior
Patrick Sandoval: 56.8 Stuff+ Last 3 Weeks, -22.1 from prior
Sandy Alcantara: 100.6 Stuff+ Last 3 Weeks, -20.6 from prior
Kevin Gausman: 114.0 Stuff+ Last 3 Weeks, -16.0 from prior
JP Sears: 87.8 Stuff+ Last 3 Weeks, -15.5 from prior
Chris Bassitt: 75.4 Stuff+ Last 3 Weeks, -15.1 from prior
Michael Wacha: 90.5 Stuff+ Last 3 Weeks, -10.9 from prior
Martin Perez: 34.8 Stuff+ Last 3 Weeks, -10.7 from prior
Brady Singer: 59.6 Stuff+ Last 3 Weeks, -10.7 from prior
Joe Ryan: 91.9 Stuff+ Last 3 Weeks, -10.6 from prior
Zac Gallen: 109.4 Stuff+ Last 3 Weeks, -10.4 from prior
Zack Wheeler: 116.5 Stuff+ Last 3 Weeks, -9.9 from prior
Clayton Kershaw: 82.4 Stuff+ Last 3 Weeks, -9.4 from prior
That’s it! A quick report, but so many names there and a really telling tale, I think. Take this and dive further into it yourself with all of the dashboards! Hope you like all the new stuff - later!
Great write up, love the magic formulas list, those are especially useful.