Recent Pitcher Data Analysis - June 27th
A stat-fueled look at recent standout pitching performances.
We missed last week of player trends because of some busyness and a lack of Stuff+ data, but we are getting it together today! My guy Drew Haugen got the Stuff+ data uploaded last night, so we’re all up to date through the 25th.
If you’re new here, this is where I have coded some reports to look at recent pitching data, and we go through it and add some commentary along the way.
Off we go.
Last 3 Weeks - Leaders
It has been just an insane run for Blake Snell. Here are his numbers by month.
April: 13.7% SwStr%, 41.4% Strike%, 45.1% Ball%, 23.9% K%, 16.5% BB%
May: 12.4% SwStr%, 43.1% Strike%, 41.9% Ball%, 25.2% K%, 11.5% BB%
June: 20.1% SwStr%, 52.9% Strike%, 36.6% Ball%, 47.3% K%, 6.6% BB%
I have to stress how big of a difference 4 points is in a stat like Strike% and Ball%. That’s massive. Snell has been throwing so, so many strikes this month, and that’s really all the guy has to do to be one of the best pitchers in the league. That’s EASIER SAID THAN DONE though, and almost surely Snell will fall flat on his baggy-eyed face soon. If you have him, you should trade him today.
Reid Detmers is also going through a very good run of starts, but he’s another guy that I can’t really trust in. He went on this insane run of starts last year around the same time, but then fell flat and was pretty bad to end the year, and he wasn’t very good before June this year. I’d view him as a sell-high as well, but I’m a little bit less confident in that recommendation than Snell since he’s younger and we’ve seen less of him.
The other weird name here is Ranger Suarez. He has never been a high strikeout guy, so he deserves a further look. This 29.7% K% comes from three starts, and in those starts he has just a 12.1% SwStr% and a 46.3% Strike%, both marks are right at league average, so yea that K% doesn’t make any sense. I don’t think anybody is really going to fall for it, which means you can’t really sell him high - but I would be careful with even starting him moving forward - or at the very least I wouldn’t be expecting a ton from him.
K%
Blake Snell: 51.5 K%
Dylan Cease: 38.3 K%
Tyler Glasnow: 36.0 K%
Reid Detmers: 35.4 K%
Eury Perez: 34.9 K%
Spencer Strider: 34.0 K%
Lance Lynn: 32.7 K%
Freddy Peralta: 32.6 K%
Pablo Lopez: 32.4 K%
Lucas Giolito: 30.9 K%
James Paxton: 30.0 K%
Ranger Suarez: 29.7 K%
Gerrit Cole: 29.6 K%
Charlie Morton: 29.5 K%
Yusei Kikuchi: 28.7 K%
Johan Oviedo is a bit interesting still. He started the year incredibly well and then fell flat, but recently he’s turning it back on again. The K% is at 23% with this elite 3.1% BB% in the last four starts, and the SwStr% is up to 12.6%. His strike rate is lower than average (45.9%), so that’s a little bit worrisome, and he doesn’t get many ground balls (42% GB%). So I guess overall he’s not looking very great, but the low BB% is very good to see, and he does have decent stuff with a 104 Stuff+ and a 124 mark on the slider. But, like a lot of other guys, he has a bad fastball that will need to improve (6.7% SwStr%, 41% Strike%).
BB%
George Kirby: 1.0 BB%
Joe Ryan: 1.2 BB%
JP Sears: 1.4 BB%
Max Scherzer: 2.0 BB%
Zack Greinke: 2.4 BB%
Garrett Whitlock: 2.5 BB%
Griffin Canning: 3.0 BB%
Gerrit Cole: 3.1 BB%
Joe Musgrove: 3.1 BB%
Johan Oviedo: 3.1 BB%
Dean Kremer: 3.1 BB%
Jesus Luzardo: 3.4 BB%
Zac Gallen: 3.8 BB%
Paul Blackburn: 4.0 BB%
Bailey Ober: 4.2 BB%
GB%
Logan Webb: 65.9 GB%
Hunter Brown: 62.5 GB%
Sandy Alcantara: 61.2 GB%
Marcus Stroman: 57.5 GB%
Brayan Bello: 56.9 GB%
Jesus Luzardo: 56.7 GB%
Mitch Keller: 56.3 GB%
Bryce Elder: 55.7 GB%
Luis L. Ortiz: 55.4 GB%
Joe Musgrove: 54.9 GB%
Kyle Hendricks: 53.3 GB%
Shane Bieber: 52.8 GB%
George Kirby: 52.7 GB%
Griffin Canning: 51.1 GB%
Brady Singer: 50.9 GB%
Magic Formulas
Some standouts from the magic formula qualifiers.
Griffin Canning
The 13.6% SwStr% this year is very good, and it comes with a below-average ball rate as well, and a pretty good GB%. He’s always been a guy to get a bunch of whiffs, and maybe he’s taking a step forward right now. He is someone to monitor pretty closely, he’s getting pretty close to shallow-league territory.
Kyle Bradish
Bradish has been pitching well lately too, and he’s done that by going heavily to the slider. Like we talked about with Oviedo, he’s one of these guys with a sweet slider but not a good fastball to back it up. I would expect some struggles from Bradish down the stretch - but he’s another guy that was highly touted coming up which gives him some extra perceived ceiling.
Garrett Whitlock
I’m just a sucker for this guy. 14.7% SwStr% and a 50% Strike% is hard to do and puts him among the league leaders in that duo. I’m a full on Whitlock believer and you should pick him up right now and start him tonight.
K%, BB%, GB% Magic Formula
Aaron Nola: 27.3 K%, 6.5% BB%, 43.1% GB%
Blake Snell: 51.5 K%, 4.4% BB%, 48.3% GB%
Griffin Canning: 28.4 K%, 3.0% BB%, 51.1% GB%
James Paxton: 30.0 K%, 4.4% BB%, 43.1% GB%
Jesus Luzardo: 28.1 K%, 3.4% BB%, 56.7% GB%
Kyle Bradish: 28.3 K%, 5.4% BB%, 50.8% GB%
Pablo Lopez: 32.4 K%, 5.9% BB%, 45.2% GB%
Yusei Kikuchi: 28.7 K%, 5.7% BB%, 43.9% GB%
SwStr% + Ball% Magic Formula
Eury Perez: 16.9 SwStr%, 32.5% Ball%
Garrett Whitlock: 20.1 SwStr%, 27.2% Ball%
Gerrit Cole: 17.6 SwStr%, 31.6% Ball%
James Paxton: 17.3 SwStr%, 33.5% Ball%
Jesus Luzardo: 17.6 SwStr%, 31.2% Ball%
Joe Ryan: 15.3 SwStr%, 27.8% Ball%
Matthew Boyd: 16.4 SwStr%, 32.8% Ball%
Max Scherzer: 15.1 SwStr%, 32.6% Ball%
Pablo Lopez: 15.8 SwStr%, 31.6% Ball%
Shane McClanahan: 16.8 SwStr%, 33.2% Ball%
Spencer Strider: 21.4 SwStr%, 32.6% Ball%
Zac Gallen: 17.5 SwStr%, 32.9% Ball%
Last 3 Weeks - Changes
Comparing Last 3 Weeks Stats to Prior
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