Recent Pitcher Data Analysis - June 15
A stat-fueled look at recent standout hitting performances.
Week two of pitching player trends! Let’s get to business. I’ve added in pitch mix changes and pitch velocity changes, and you’ll find that at the bottom here.
Last 3 Weeks - Leaders
K%
To me, the biggest story in the pitching landscape recently has been James Paxton. I kind of laughed off his first two good starts, but it’s pretty undeniable that he’s quite good right now after six outings.
The good news is that he has excellent SwStr% marks on four different pitches. That’s pretty insane.
The bad news is that he has a horrible history of not being able to stay healthy, and he’s really reliant on that four-seamer. The presence of the cutter eases the concern on that, as he can probably just throw some more cutters if hitters start timing up his four-seamer, so I think the only reason to worry about Paxton would be that you don’t think he can stay healthy - and I think that’s a pretty legitimate concern. I should also say that he’s one of these guys that could have some bad starts just because of the long ball - that 34% GB% is eight points below the average for SPs this year.
Blake Snell is also in the middle of one of his good runs, but that will certainly not be staying around for long. He has a 48.5% Strike% in his last four starts with that elite 25% K-BB%. Prior to this stretch, those marks were 41.8% and 10.4% - I’d expect another stretch like that. Fantastic time to trade Snell to somebody isn’t as familiar with his volatility.
We’ll also see plenty of Jon Gray in this post, he’s been incredible. A 25.2% K-BB% in his last four starts with a super convincing 18% SwStr% and a 30% Ball%. The Stuff+ is lower on him at 93. I’m sure how much that matters, but it probably matters a little bit.
If we look at the average Stuff+ mark of SPs with a K-BB% above 20%, it is 112. If we look at pitchers under a 15% K-BB%, it’s 85 - so there’s a definite relationship there.
K% Leaders
Hunter Greene: 41.2 K%
Kevin Gausman: 36.7 K%
Blake Snell: 35.9 K%
Michael Kopech: 35.7 K%
James Paxton: 34.2 K%
Spencer Strider: 33.3 K%
Luis Castillo: 32.7 K%
Jon Gray: 32.5 K%
Charlie Morton: 31.0 K%
Corbin Burnes: 30.8 K%
Zack Wheeler: 30.6 K%
Braxton Garrett: 30.5 K%
Jesus Luzardo: 30.2 K%
Gerrit Cole: 29.8 K%
Tyler Glasnow: 29.5 K%
BB%
It’s not all good news here. Plenty of these names have very low walk rates over the last three weeks, but haven’t pitched very well. Teheran, Bradish, Canning, Schmidt, Lorenzen, etc. It’s not enough to just not walk hitters.
BB% Leaders
Max Scherzer: 1.0 BB%
George Kirby: 1.1 BB%
Griffin Canning: 1.4 BB%
Jon Gray: 2.6 BB%
MacKenzie Gore: 2.8 BB%
Miles Mikolas: 2.8 BB%
Chris Bassitt: 3.1 BB%
Logan Gilbert: 3.2 BB%
Julio Teheran: 3.3 BB%
Kyle Bradish: 3.4 BB%
Jesus Luzardo: 3.5 BB%
Clarke Schmidt: 3.6 BB%
Logan Webb: 3.8 BB%
Dean Kremer: 4.0 BB%
Michael Lorenzen: 4.0 BB%
GB%
Marcus Stroman: 67.3 GB%
Hunter Brown: 62.3 GB%
Zach Eflin: 61.8 GB%
Edward Cabrera: 61.2 GB%
Logan Webb: 57.5 GB%
Joe Musgrove: 56.1 GB%
Sandy Alcantara: 55.9 GB%
Ranger Suarez: 54.7 GB%
Bryce Elder: 54.5 GB%
Bobby Miller: 53.5 GB%
Brayan Bello: 52.7 GB%
Braxton Garrett: 51.9 GB%
Alex Cobb: 51.6 GB%
Framber Valdez: 51.5 GB%
Clayton Kershaw: 51.5 GB%
Here are your classic MFQ’s, with a high K%, a low BB%, and a high GB%. Braxton Garrett and Clayton Kershaw have been here most of the year, but three new names enter here. We’ve already talked about Paxton. Jesus Luzardo is Snell-like in which he’ll have elite stretches but also some really rough times, and I expect some bad starts are in his future given the lack of consistent command.
K%, BB%, GB% Magic Formula
Braxton Garrett: 30.5 K%, 6.1% BB%, 51.9% GB%
Clayton Kershaw: 28.4 K%, 6.9% BB%, 51.5% GB%
James Paxton: 34.2 K%, 5.5% BB%, 43.2% GB%
Jesus Luzardo: 30.2 K%, 3.5% BB%, 49.1% GB%
Max Scherzer: 29.0 K%, 1.0% BB%, 44.1% GB%
The new MFQ’s. We’re looking for guys getting whiffs and not throwing balls. I like this list a lot in terms of picking out guys to stream or trade for. Unfortunately, these guys are going to all be owned in your league, with the possible exception of Garrett Whitlock. I talked about him in the daily notes this morning, I think he’s an add everywhere - so go get him if he’s available.
SwStr% + Ball% Magic Formula
Bailey Ober: 15.3 SwStr%, 32.5% Ball%
Braxton Garrett: 18.9 SwStr%, 33.3% Ball%
Clayton Kershaw: 14.4 SwStr%, 34.0% Ball%
Corbin Burnes: 15.1 SwStr%, 32.6% Ball%
Garrett Whitlock: 14.9 SwStr%, 29.0% Ball%
James Paxton: 20.7 SwStr%, 31.2% Ball%
Jon Gray: 19.0 SwStr%, 29.2% Ball%
MacKenzie Gore: 18.0 SwStr%, 33.2% Ball%
Max Scherzer: 18.3 SwStr%, 29.3% Ball%
Shane McClanahan: 16.1 SwStr%, 32.9% Ball%
Spencer Strider: 18.8 SwStr%, 34.0% Ball%
Last 3 Weeks - Changes
Comparing Last 3 Weeks Stats to Prior
K% Improvers
Jon Gray: 32.5% K% Last 3 Weeks, +14.1% from prior
Blake Snell: 35.9% K% Last 3 Weeks, +12.1% from prior
Michael Kopech: 35.7% K% Last 3 Weeks, +10.6% from prior
Hunter Greene: 41.2% K% Last 3 Weeks, +10.3% from prior
Corbin Burnes: 30.8% K% Last 3 Weeks, +9.3% from prior
Tyler Anderson: 21.4% K% Last 3 Weeks, +7.8% from prior
Charlie Morton: 31.0% K% Last 3 Weeks, +7.5% from prior
Aaron Nola: 28.2% K% Last 3 Weeks, +6.9% from prior
Braxton Garrett: 30.5% K% Last 3 Weeks, +6.8% from prior
Brady Singer: 25.4% K% Last 3 Weeks, +6.5% from prior
K% Decliners
Sonny Gray: 13.3 K% Last 3 Weeks, -15.9 from prior
Cristian Javier: 14.7 K% Last 3 Weeks, -13.1 from prior
Logan Gilbert: 19.4 K% Last 3 Weeks, -11.2 from prior
Drew Smyly: 13.3 K% Last 3 Weeks, -9.6 from prior
Ryne Nelson: 7.2 K% Last 3 Weeks, -9.2 from prior
Spencer Strider: 33.3 K% Last 3 Weeks, -8.3 from prior
Mitch Keller: 22.4 K% Last 3 Weeks, -8.3 from prior
JP Sears: 17.1 K% Last 3 Weeks, -8.0 from prior
Joe Ryan: 21.2 K% Last 3 Weeks, -7.4 from prior
Lance Lynn: 19.2 K% Last 3 Weeks, -7.3 from prior
Domingo German: 19.0 K% Last 3 Weeks, -7.1 from prior
Clarke Schmidt: 19.0 K% Last 3 Weeks, -7.1 from prior
Zach Eflin: 21.3 K% Last 3 Weeks, -7.1 from prior
Reid Detmers: 24.0 K% Last 3 Weeks, -5.8 from prior
Shane McClanahan: 23.3 K% Last 3 Weeks, -5.8 from prior
But some interesting names in the decliners!
What’s going on with Cristian Javier? His last three SwStr% marks have been 10.2%, 10.8%, and 2.2%. 2.2%?? He has just a 1.1% SwStr% on his slider over his last three outings, and that’s 90+ pitches. Very weird stuff, deserves a further look if it happens again tonight.
Other very concerning names: Sonny Gray, Lance Lynn (RIP), Ryne Nelson
Slightly concerning names: Logan Gilbert, Mitch Keller
It’s three or four starts for all of these guys, we shouldn’t panic on anybody - but these are good trends to follow over the next couple of starts.
BB% Improvers
MacKenzie Gore: 2.8% BB% Last 3 Weeks, -9.3% from prior
Chris Bassitt: 3.1% BB% Last 3 Weeks, -6.4% from prior
Michael Kopech: 5.7% BB% Last 3 Weeks, -6.4% from prior
Jon Gray: 2.6% BB% Last 3 Weeks, -6.1% from prior
Jack Flaherty: 9.4% BB% Last 3 Weeks, -5.4% from prior
Clarke Schmidt: 3.6% BB% Last 3 Weeks, -4.1% from prior
Freddy Peralta: 5.9% BB% Last 3 Weeks, -4.0% from prior
Jesus Luzardo: 3.5% BB% Last 3 Weeks, -3.6% from prior
Patrick Sandoval: 5.7% BB% Last 3 Weeks, -3.3% from prior
Edward Cabrera: 11.9% BB% Last 3 Weeks, -3.1% from prior
BB% Decliners
Patrick Corbin: 13.3 BB% Last 3 Weeks, +9.2% from prior
Lucas Giolito: 13.2 BB% Last 3 Weeks, +8.3% from prior
Kevin Gausman: 11.2 BB% Last 3 Weeks, +6.9% from prior
Anthony DeSclafani: 9.5 BB% Last 3 Weeks, +5.8% from prior
Ryne Nelson: 11.6 BB% Last 3 Weeks, +4.8% from prior
Martin Perez: 11.3 BB% Last 3 Weeks, +4.8% from prior
Dane Dunning: 10.7 BB% Last 3 Weeks, +4.8% from prior
Lance Lynn: 12.1 BB% Last 3 Weeks, +4.6% from prior
Jose Berrios: 10.3 BB% Last 3 Weeks, +4.6% from prior
Luis Castillo: 10.2 BB% Last 3 Weeks, +4.6% from prior
Aaron Nola: 9.7 BB% Last 3 Weeks, +4.5% from prior
Trevor Williams: 10.8 BB% Last 3 Weeks, +4.4% from prior
Nathan Eovaldi: 8.6 BB% Last 3 Weeks, +4.4% from prior
Joey Wentz: 12.3 BB% Last 3 Weeks, +4.3% from prior
Zach Eflin: 6.4 BB% Last 3 Weeks, +3.7% from prior
Great to see guys like Gore, Cabrera, Luzardo, Kopech, Flaherty, and Peralta walking fewer hitters. Those guys are all nasty and can do some real damage if they’re not giving away free passes - but I don’t trust any of them!
The decliners to worry about a little bit would be Castillo, Giolito, and Berrios - but again, we’re not panicking here. The reason I mention those three is that they’ve had some of these issues in the past so it’s hard to believe they’ll definitely get it right.
And now, a paywall!