Regression Inspection - Hitters
I look through three key stats that are subject to regression and find players due for either positive or negative regression in 2024.
Okay, so yes “regression” and “inspection” don’t actually rhyme. But titles should be short and to the point, and I think I got that done with this title.
We’re going to look through three categories here with an eye on hitters to find players due for positive or negative regression in 2024. And then we’ll be back soon to do another post just like this, but for pitchers.
I lay out some of the statistical realities we have to keep in mind below, but just keep in mind two things when thinking about regression
Not all hitters will perform evenly even in “luck” categories. Skills that certain players have that others do not will make them “over perform” in plenty of ways, and vice versa.
Regression is never guaranteed. It’s possible to lucky into a high BABIP one year, and then luck into another high BABIP the next year - even if it truly is only luck! If you roll a dice twice, you just might land on a six in back-to-back rolls!
Again, more on that as we get through this. I’m trying to keep these posts as short and to the point as possible, and I encourage you to use my dashboards and other resources to explore further.
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