Second Half Breakout Players to Target
Looking at a handful of players to buy low on in fantasy baseball as we head into the second half of the MLB season.
Gavin Williams, Cleveland Guardians
A lot of people have forgotten about the young Cleveland righty. He debuted last year after putting up elite numbers in the minors (a 24% K-BB%), and he held his own in his first MLB stint:
16 GS, 82 IP, 3.29 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 23.5% K%, 10.7% BB%, 13.2% SwStr%, 36.8% Ball%
What makes him stand out more than other young pitchers to me is the fastball. He averaged 95.7mph on the fastball last season and earned a strong 50% Strike% on the pitch. That is really important for me to see, so he checks that box (and the Stuff+ graded out very well to boot).
The second thing we want to see is at least one secondary pitch that can get whiffs, and Williams’ has a slider that posted a 16.3% SwStr% last season. That’s not fantastic for a slider (league average is 16.1%), but he racked up a lot of called strikes on the pitch as well to get his Strike% there to 49%, and that was two points better than the league average slider. He also features a curveball and an every-once-in-awhile changeup.
He is healthy and ramped up, and I think it could be a very strong three months from Williams, who should be pretty cheap to acquire right now.
Julio Rodriguez, Seattle Mariners
What a disappointing season for J-Rod. Prior to the beginning of July, he hit just .247/.297/.327 with seven homers and 17 steals. That isn’t the worst season in the world, but this was a guy that went in the top three of your draft. You just aren’t getting anywhere near what you wanted from him.
Remember that J=Rod has a history of slow starts.
March-April 2022: .544 OPS
March-April 2023: .743 OPS
It’s more concerning to get the whole way to July with just the .625 OPS we currently see, but it should be a little bit re-assuring that J-Rod has been able to shake off slow starts in the past and still turn in elite fantasy seasons.
His 2024 xwOBA is actually a bit better than 2023 (.330 vs. .327), so that’s surprising to see. The difference is that he’s striking out a bit more (27% vs. 25% last year) and whiffing more (69% Contact% vs. 72% last year).
The reason to buy low on Julio Rodriguez is because of the track record. We should always trust the bigger samples over the smaller ones, and for his MLB career, the guy has a .785 OPS with a huge number of homers (67) and steals (79). I think he will get it going in a big way in the second half and no doubt the Rodriguez owner in your league is frustrated with him.
There are four more names to get to, but you will have to be a paid sub to check that out!