Showdown Analysis: Week 1 BUF @ LAR
analysis and picks for the week one showdown slate, BUF @ LAR
Hey everybody, Jon A weighing in here before we get to it! My man Johnny C will be writing these up for all of the Sunday and Monday showdowns! I’m excited about this first one getting out there.
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Football is back! What a great game to kick it off for us. The Super Bowl favorite Buffalo Bills head to LA to take on the defending Super Bowl champions, the Los Angeles Rams. The Bills are 2-point road favorites, in a game featuring a lovely 52-point total. In a game featuring two of the most prolific offenses, and 2 of the best players in the NFL in Josh Allen and Cooper Kupp, this should be a fun one!
Below I will discuss my best plays, my favorite value options, some “dart throws”, and give you a few roster construction ideas. Make sure you check out Jon’s projections for the slate.
TOP PLAYS
JOSH ALLEN $12,000, PROJ: 26.08
Josh Allen is Jon’s top overall projected player separating from the field by over 4 DK points, and my favorite play of the night. Allen averaged 25.98 DK points a game last year, and had 5 32+ point games, his ceiling is massive. Allen finished his 2021 campaign with 409 completions for a 63.3% completion rate, for 4,407 yards, and 36 TDs, while also adding 763 yards on the ground and 6 scores. Just video game-like numbers. Not much more needs to be said here.
COOPER KUPP $12,400, PROJ: 22.04
Coming off one of the statistically greatest seasons a WR has ever had, Cooper Kupp slides in at number 2 for me. Last year Kupp finished with 145 receptions on 191 targets for 1,947 receiving yards, and 16 touchdowns. Kupp averaged 25.9 DK points a game last year. The addition of Allen Robinson could take some work away from Kupp, but with Van Jefferson now rules out, and the likes of TuTu Atwell and Ben Skowronek competing for target share, I fully expect Kupp to continue his dominance in Los Angeles’s passing game tonight.
GABRIEL DAVIS $7,200, PROJ: 13.40
Coming in at number 3 for me is Gabriel Davis. He is my favorite price/$ play of the night. Davis has finally carved out a nice role for himself in this offense. His full potential was showcased in last year’s AFC Divisional game when Davis went for 8 receptions, 201 yards, and 4 TDs. The Bills released Cole Beasley in the offseason, and let Emmanuel Sanders walk in free agency. This has opened the door wide open for Gabe. I fully expect Gabe to be on the field for nearly 100% of Allen’s dropbacks and command more of a target share this year. And with Diggs likely to see Jalen Ramsey much of tonight, it would not surprise me at all if Davis is the leading receiver tonight for the Bills.
MATTHEW STAFFORD $10,800, PROJ: 19.73
Stafford is also coming off a career-best year, finally getting himself that coveted Super Bowl trophy. Stafford completed 404 passes at a 67.2% completion rate, for 4,886 yards, and 41 touchdowns. Stafford is still more of a pocket passer, rushing for only 43 yards last year on 32 attempts. This caps Stafford’s ceiling for me, and why he comes in at number 4 for me. Stafford was dealing with a shoulder injury all offseason that I do believe was blown out of proportion, but definitely something to monitor as well. The addition of Allen Robinson is huge for Stafford while losing out on Odell Beckham Jr. and Robert Woods.
BEST VALUE OPTIONS
ISAIAH MCKENZIE $2,400, PROJ: 8.60
All reports out of camp are that McKenzie has a hold on the every down slot role in Buffalo. The slot role in Buffalo has led to success in the last few years, previously occupied by Cole Beasley. When McKenzie started in week 16 last year vs New England, McKenzie went off for 11 receptions, 125 yards, and a TD, showcasing his upside. At $2,400 and paths to 70%-80% snap share in this offense, McKenzie is a no-brainer for salary relief.
BEN SKOWRONEK $1,800, PROJ: 5.48
Was hard to write this one … But with Van Jefferson ruled out tonight, this leaves a combination of TuTu Atwell and Skowronek to handle WR3 duties. Based on last year’s usage, the Rams have much more faith in Skowronek, racking up 5 targets in 2 separate games last year when the team was facing injuries. At $1,800 it doesn’t take much for Skowronek to pay off this price tag, and don’t mind taking shots here for salary relief.
DARRELL HENDERSON $4,800, PROJ: 10.00
The report is that Cam Akers is good to go, though he missed the last few weeks of practice, and has now worked in some limited participation in practice this week. I’m skeptical that Akers is 100% and think there is upside to Darrell getting the majority of the work tonight, and he should be more involved on passing downs, to begin with.
TYLER BASS / MATT GAY $4,000 / $3,800, PROJ: 8.18 / 7.57
“Kickers are football players too”. Don’t forget about the K’s tonight. With a 52-point total, there are a lot of points projected to be scored tonight. A few stops in the RedZone can be all it takes for K’s to end up in the optimal lineup. With a lot of mediocre options priced around these guys, not a bad idea to mix these guys in.
DART THROWS
Let me start this off with I do not recommend rostering these players if you are only playing a handful of lineups. These players are more for those who are playing 150 max entries or playing some “lottos” in the milly maker.
KHALIL SHAKIR $200, PROJ: 3.13
The Boise State rookie Khalil has produced some training camp buzz. He has an opportunity to mix in and with Isaiah not at 100% there are paths to him earning more routes than projected. At $200… why not take some shots.
TUTU ATWELL $1,000, PROJ: 3.34
Similar writeup here as Ben Skowronek. While I prefer Skowronek, neither of these guys feel comfortable to roster. For $800 cheaper, and paths to earning more routes/targets than Skowronek, he warrants some ownership.
ROSTER CONSTRUCTION IDEAS
Lineup #1
GABRIEL DAVIS (CPT)
JOSH ALLEN
COOPER KUPP
ISAIAH MCKENZIE
DARREL HENDERSON
ALLEN ROBINSON
Lineup #2
JOSH ALLEN (CPT)
GABRIEL DAVIS
ISAIAH MCKENZIE
COOPER KUPP
DARREL HENDERSON
MATT GAY
Lineup #3
COOPER KUPP (CPT)
JOSH ALLEN
GABRIEL DAVIS
MATT GAY
DARREL HENDERSON
ISAIAH MCKENZIE
The first showdown article is in the books. Thank you all for giving this a read. Best of luck to everyone tonight, and I look forward to seeing some of you in Jon’s Draftkings’ contest mentioned at the beginning of the article. I hope this was helpful, and if you have any suggestions for future articles or anything else you guys want added feel free to shoot Jon an email or DM me on Twitter @JohnnyC1993.