SIERA vs. ERA - SPs to Buy & Sell
I look at the SIERA vs. ERA data searching for buy-low and sell-high SPs
Interactive SIERA vs. ERA Dashboard Here
Doing a special little thing here where I give you some #analysis in both written and podcast form. The podcast is already recorded, so the more detailed content is in there. You can listen to that on Spotify or on Apple Podcasts, or in this little cool mini-player here:
Again, the details are in the podcast. I went through all of these names in more detail. I also explained what SIERA and xERA are, how they work, and how to best use them. This content is much better in podcast form. But in case you don’t have the time to listen to me talk for 45 minutes, here is a quick summary:
Buy-Lows
Garrett Crochet
ERA: 6.37
SIERA: 2.79
Not super confident about this one, I don’t want to give up much of anything for him given the reliever-turned-starter thing and the fact that he has looked worse by most metrics ever since those first three starts. But I think I’d add him if he were dropped, at least just to see what happens the next couple of starts.
Joe Musgrove
ERA: 6.94
SIERA: 4.70
As I lay out in the podcast, I don’t really want to buy anybody with a SIERA above 4.50, but the history with Musgrove is good enough for me to believe he can blossom still. And the Musgrove owner in your league is probably ready to abandon ship.
Jack Flaherty
ERA: 4.91 ERA
SIERA: 2.73 SIERA
I don’t think it’s legal for me to use pictures of guys in these posts, so I’ve avoided doing that. But if I were doing that, I would’ve used his picture as the cover. Everything under the hood for Flaherty looks excellent, and given the high ERA and the history of crappiness he’s given us the last several years, you can probably acquire him for much too cheap - and he might even be available for free in very shallow leagues.
Pablo Lopez
ERA: 4.83
SIERA: 2.98
Nothing this year looks much different than last year when he was amazing, and yet the ERA is way up there. The SIERA is elite, so I would not be viewing him any differently than I was coming into the season. Chances are you can get Pablo Lopez for a price tag that is less than an ace pitcher, and I would advise you do that.
Aaron Civale
ERA: 5.06
SIERA: 3.59
He has never been a great whiff pitcher, which makes me nervous, but he does have a history of getting a bunch of called strikes and weak contact, and the SIERA likes what he’s done. He’s probably free or close to it in most leagues, and he looks like a top 50 SP to me.
Brandon Pfaadt
ERA: 4.63
SIERA: 3.17
There are three pitchers that we probably missed the boat on given their dominant outings this weekend. Pfaadt is one of them, as he raised his K% to 26% with an 11-strikeout performance this weekend. But you still might be able to pull off a too-cheap price for him given his relatively mediocre career numbers so far. I consider him must-own, and I would value him as a top-30 SP right now, and I doubt most Pfaadt owners are that high on him, even after this big weekend.
The two others here are Max Fried (3.67 SIERA, 4.97 ERA) and George Kirby (2.92 SIERA, 4.17 ERA) where it’s probably too late. They both just had get-right starts and their owner is probably feeling back to normal about them, viewing them once again solidly as an ace. But if you can get them for a non-ace return, I’d do that and I would feel great about it. If you have them, hold on for dear life.
Sell-Highs
Jose Berrios
ERA: 1.23
SIERA: 4.29
A really bad SwStr% and K% for him, and yet he’s near the top of the player rater. He’ll be tough to sell given his long history, he’s a known commodity, but maybe you can get someone to bite.
Seth Lugo
ERA: 1.66
SIERA: 4.67
The theme of this list will be
Low K-BB%
Low GB%
Lugo fits that extremely well with his 15% K%, 6% BB%, and 38% GB%. He’s given up a ton of balls in play, and a ton of balls in play in the air, and yet has emerged nearly spotless. Kansas City is a good place to give up fly balls, but he needs to raise this K% by like seven points to avoid catastrophe - and I don’t see that happening. Take what you can get for him.
Ronel Blanco
ERA: 1.65
SIERA: 4.24
Probably nobody was biting after that no-hitter, but maybe they will now given his continued success. The SIERA tells you the story there - he has a middling K% of 23.4% and a high BB% at 10.9%. The GB% isn’t awful at 46%, but this 1.64 ERA is nowhere near true.
Carlos Rodon
ERA: 1.65
SIERA: 4.47
If I had to pick one “Sell High” SP it would be Rodon, and I lay out the whole reasoning for that in the podcast. The SwStr% isn’t there at all, and that’s unusual and yet believable for Rodon. I think you’ll be able to find someone in your league who thinks he’s healthy and BACK as an ace, and he’s just not.
Kutter Crawford
ERA: 1.35
SIERA: 3.80
Kind of a goofy pitcher. Not a horrible SIERA, but he hasn’t given up a homer yet with his 27% FB% (league average = 26%). The K% is fine at 24.6% and the SwStr% is about at that same level at 12.5%, but there will be more homers given up soon and that will hurt the ERA significantly. Not sure if you can really get a great return for him, but it’s worth a shot.
Jordan Hicks
ERA: 1.59
SIERA: 3.75
Behind Rodon, I’d call Hicks the next-best sell-high. The name value has people thinking he just needed to be turned into a starter to become a very good fantasy pitcher, but that doesn’t seem to be the case. He’s relying a ton on ground balls with his low 10.9% SwStr% and 20.8% K%. There will be a much worse ERA and worse WHIP ahead, in all likelihood. That’s not even to mention the questions about how many innings he can shoulder this year.
Shota Imanaga
ERA: 0.98
SIERA: 3.13
It would take a really nice return for me to give up Imanaga given his very strong SIERA and elite numbers under the hood:
15.6% SwStr%
31.1% Ball%
But if someone thinks he’s top-10 and will pay that price, I’d take it. I don’t think he’s a top ten fantasy pitcher, at least not yet. He’s been very lucky on fly balls (54 PA/HR on his crazy high 36% FB%), so there will be some multi-HR outings that bloat his ERA in the future, but even if he pitches to the expected 3.15 SIERA there, that’s still an awesome fantasy pitcher.
Those are the names, but again, check out the dashboard yourself if you want more!