Starting Pitcher Prospects for 2025
I dive into the AAA data from 2024 to spot some potential SPs to stash for early or mid season in 2025
This one is going to be a good one. Every year, I dive into a few of these 50-round NFBC draft-and-holds. In those leagues, you draft 50 players, and that’s the full list of players you use for the whole season. There are deep benches, so it makes sense to stash some high-upside pitching prospects for that mid-season boost.
I’m not a scout bro. I’m not here to examine any top prospects list. I’m here to look at the statistical categories I believe to be most predictive of immediate MLB success and narrow things down to a handful of names that meet my desired criteria.
What’s the Criteria
Here’s what I want.
A High K%
A High SwStr%
A High-Velocity Four-Seam Fastball
bUt jON, yOU dOn’T ALwAys nEeD a FOur SeaM fAStbAlL aND a BUnch Of WHifFS AnD stRIKeoUtS tO HaVe suCceSS as A PitcHEr
Shut up. I’ve had enough of you Cade Povich and Drew Thorpe people telling me that a pitching prospect will be good in the Major Leagues while their fastball tops out at 93. Enough of that.
Since AA does not record pitch velocities, at least not publicly for us to use, this list is going to have to be restricted to pitchers who had at least a few outings in AAA last year. I’m sure there are some names that meet my criteria, but haven’t reached AAA yet - and they’re excluded here. If you have some of those names for me, please reach out - I’d love to hear them.
So I am looking for
At least 2 AAA starts last year
K% > 27%
SwStr > 15%
Four-seam fastball velo above 96mph
I am going to give you ONE NAME FOR FREE and then keep the rest to myself and to my paid readers. And the one name for free won’t be a huge surprise to you.
Bubba Chandler, Pittsburgh Pirates
K%: 31%
BB%: 8.6%
SwStr%: 15.6%
FF Avg Velo: 96.8
FF Max Velo: 99.3
I have this beautiful MiLB Statcast Tableau dashboard, so I can show you full pitch arsenal data for all of these arms (restricted to their AAA performance last year).
The Pirates have been a factory for these guys with high-velo fastballs and wipeout secondaries. Paul Skenes and Jared Jones put on a show last year, and it appears that Chandler will join the party in 2025. Chandler’s full season from 2024:
23 GS, 119.2 IP, 3.08 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 30.9% K%, 8.6% BB%, 0.68 HR/9
He checks all of the boxes, and he’s someone I want to stash and someone I want to add in all leagues immediately upon his eventual call-up. So, store this name away from later.
Like I said, you’ll have to pay me to get the rest of the names!