Starting Pitchers for the Stretch Run

Looking at handful of potential SP adds to bolster your fantasy team down the stretch

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It’s playoff time in fantasy baseball land, and chances are you, you could some use some help at the starting pitcher position. Here are some recent surging SPs to consider adding for the stretch run.

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Shallow Leagues

If you are in a competitive league, these names are probably gone. If you read the daily notes, they’re probably already on your team. But just to play the hits.

Jacob deGrom, Texas Rangers

Have you ever heard of this deGrom guy? He is on his way back to the Majors, and will probably make at least a couple of MLB starts before the season wraps up.

His two rehab outings have been short (two innings in each), but we could see him in the Majors throwing 4-5 innings per outing in the next couple of weeks.

It’s probably not worth it in most leagues, but if he’s available and you can use an IL spot to stash him until mid-September, it’s worth a shot.

Spencer Arrighetti, Houston Astros

We have talked about him a ton in the notes, but I will just recap. He has a 37.4% K% over his last six starts with a 17.1% SwStr% and a 29.3% K-BB%. You know the rules, if any pitcher goes on a run of 5+ starts with a K-BB% above 20%, we add them.

Ryne Nelson, Arizona Diamondbacks

The K-BB% over Nelson’s last five starts is 26.7%. So you know what to do! I feel like confident about Nelson than I do with Arrighetti, but the recent success is undeniable. He has an elite 54.1% Strike% over this time. The reason for hesitation is the 10.4% SwStr%. He has relied mostly on called strikes and fouls balls to earn those strikes. We have seen him throw more four-seamers lately, and that’s been great for him as the Stuff+ has come up and all of these strikeouts have followed.

Jeffrey Springs, Tampa Bay Rays

There is an innings problem here. The Rays seem set on limiting him to 70-80 pitches per outing, but other than that - things are looking great. He sports a 15.1% SwStr% since making his debut about a month ago, and with it comes a 20.3% K-BB%. The changeup is elite, and the fastball has been more than good enough to support it.

DJ Herz, Washington Nationals

I have talked so, so much about Herz in the notes this year - so you know what I’m going to say. He’s a SwStr% darling. In the second half he sports a 15% SwStr% and a 29.2% K% - those marks are both among the league-leaders. He is another guy who is held back by a lack of command (97 Location+, 10.4% BB%), but he is capable of some really big outings - and the strikeouts have been consistent.

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Deeper Leagues

David Festa, Minnesota Twins

I wrote him off as a 4-5 inning guy a week or so ago, and then he went out and threw six strong innings against he Braves yesterday. He now sports a 28.7% K% and a 6.7% BB% in his 42.1 Major League innings - that’s very impressive.

Add in the 13.2% SwStr% and 34.5% Ball% and we really like his profile.

The Twins are in the playoff race, so they’re going to keep running out their best five arms - and Festa is definitely one of them. He will have to be very efficient to get more of those quality starts, he has topped out at 88 pitches this year and has averaged less than 80 pitches per outing. But the talent is there, and we could have some big-time outings when it counts the most for your fantasy team.

Gavin Williams, Cleveland Guardians

He is another guy who got a really late start to the season, not debuting in the Majors until July 3rd. Since then, he’s made 11 starts with a pretty mediocre 15.9% K-BB%. The problem has been the walks (9.0%) and the overall inefficiency (4.76 innings per start).

I don’t think he’ll be fantastic this year, but he does have a lot of upside in the tank there given how good his fastball can be and the options he has to use behind it.

Rhett Lowder, Cincinnati Reds

The 2023 first-round pick will make his MLB debut on Friday. That will give him a chance to stick in the big league rotation for the rest of the season. You should not expet a ton of innings from him, as the Reds aren’t playing for anything currently and will certainly be careful with their young talent.

But Lowder has skills. You know that just by the fact that he was a first-rounder. His minor league K-BB% is 19.9% on the year, which is strong. I would rather be seeing him absolutely dominating minor league hitters, but we can forgive that.

The smart money is on him not being all that great at first in the Majors, but we have seen young pitchers come up and have success before. At the very least, we should see how he looks on Friday and make a decision from there (it’s also very possible this is just a spot start and he’ll go back to the minors next week).

Bryan Bello, Boston Red Sox

Bello is a very frustrating pitcher to watch and to own in fantasy. But we can’t deny that he’s made improvements throughout the season. He has a 23% K% in his last seven starts with a 54% GB%. He has also gotten through six innings in six of his last nine starts, so he gives you a higher chance than most other guys in the quality start department.

He’s not going to help your WHIP (8.8% BB%, 1.37 WHIP this season), but if he can maintain a strikeout rate over 23% and a groudn ball rate above 50% for the rest of the year, there will be some nice results to come (mixed in with some bad ones - don’t get me wrong here!).

Osvaldo Bido, Oakland Athletics

I get less and less confident with each name here, but I’m trying to tailor this those of you who are in desperate straits.

Bido has now achieved four quality starts in his last five outings with a 1.55 ERA, a 0.79 WHIP, and a 17.4% K-BB%.

Has he been lucky? Yes. He has allowed a .197 BABIP and zero, count ‘em, zero homers over this stretch. That’s despite an incredibly low 34% BB%. More base hits will begin to fall in, and more balls will find a fence to fly over. But there’s reason to believe with the 14.5% SwStr% and .216 xwOBA he’s allowed lately.

That is more or less the order I would prioritize these guys in - hope this helps a fantasy team or two out there!