Starts & Sits Advice :: July 19-20
Looking at today's and tomorrow's SP projections to help you make daily lineup and streamer decisions.
We are back! The Friday after the All-Star break always feels like a second Opening Day. So I’m pumped.
This is not the best or most interesting or useful thing I do here, but in the spirit of re-Opening Day, I’m leaving it free for all to check out.
Most days, I don’t have the extra commentary that you’ll see below today, but every other day, you’ll get this list of where I classify each probable pitcher for the next two days.
Today :: 2024-07-19
Vote of confidence for Nick Pivetta here in the tough matchup. I’m ready for a big second-half from the big man, and it starts tonight.
I think we’ll see pretty much the normal Gerrit Cole in the second half. I doubt anybody was considering benching him here, but there’s my endorsement anyways.
Not the best first half from Kevin Gausman, but he gets to ease into the second half here with a nice matchup with the Tigers.
The streamer options here would be Schwellenbach, Manaea, Wacha, and maybe Montas or Canning if you’re desperate. I didn’t like what I saw from Schwelly in the last outing. It was his best in the box score, but the whiffs disappeared. He could legitimately go either way in the second half. I love the command the strike-throwing, but it’s possible his raw stuff won’t be good enough to get away with it.
Zach Eflin’s 19% strikeout rate in the first half has me pretty hesitant on him. He still posted a competitive 3.99 ERA, and the walk rate (2.2%) keeps the WHIP down (1.12). He can still put together a good outing with how good his command is, but he’s allowing a ton of balls in play every outing and that can go poorly.
I’m really sad that the Pirates are opening the second half (on a four-game winning streak) with their worst starter, Martin Perez. Hate that, but it’s not relevant.
Must Starts
Aaron Nola (PHI) vs. PIT (19.71 Projected Fantasy Points)
Sonny Gray (STL) vs. ATL (17.83 Projected Fantasy Points)
Luis Castillo (SEA) vs. HOU (17.07 Projected Fantasy Points)
Nick Pivetta (BOS) vs. LAD (16.05 Projected Fantasy Points)
Gerrit Cole (NYY) vs. TB (15.85 Projected Fantasy Points)
Corbin Burnes (BAL) vs. TEX (14.19 Projected Fantasy Points)
Jack Flaherty (DET) vs. TOR (14.84 Projected Fantasy Points)
Kevin Gausman (TOR) vs. DET (13.51 Projected Fantasy Points)
Tanner Bibee (CLE) vs. SD (11.97 Projected Fantasy Points)
Leaning Start
Hunter Brown (HOU) vs. SEA (18.54 Projected Fantasy Points)
Spencer Schwellenbach (ATL) vs. STL (12.51 Projected Fantasy Points)
Sean Manaea (NYM) vs. MIA (14.48 Projected Fantasy Points)
Justin Steele (CHC) vs. ARI (13.56 Projected Fantasy Points)
Nathan Eovaldi (TEX) vs. BAL (13.29 Projected Fantasy Points)
Michael Wacha (KC) vs. CWS (12.93 Projected Fantasy Points)
Leaning Sit
Matt Waldron (SD) vs. CLE (8.91 Projected Fantasy Points)
Frankie Montas (CIN) vs. WSH (12.09 Projected Fantasy Points)
Griffin Canning (LAA) vs. OAK (14.48 Projected Fantasy Points)
Zach Eflin (TB) vs. NYY (11.94 Projected Fantasy Points)
Gavin Stone (LAD) vs. BOS (11.44 Projected Fantasy Points)
Sit
JP Sears (OAK) vs. LAA (11.91 Projected Fantasy Points)
Kyle Harrison (SF) vs. COL (11.6 Projected Fantasy Points)
Edward Cabrera (MIA) vs. NYM (15.63 Projected Fantasy Points)
Ryne Nelson (ARI) vs. CHC (10.92 Projected Fantasy Points)
Martin Perez (PIT) vs. PHI (10.85 Projected Fantasy Points)
Patrick Corbin (WSH) vs. CIN (9.3 Projected Fantasy Points)
Cal Quantrill (COL) vs. SF (8.81 Projected Fantasy Points)
Chris Flexen (CWS) vs. KC (8.32 Projected Fantasy Points)
Tomorrow :: 2024-07-20
Blake Snell finished the first half with his best start of the year (and frankly his onlhy good one). Now he goes into Coors Field for his second one. If he has the command back, Coors doesn’t matter so much - he’s more than good enough to dominate in that situation. But he’s always a risky starter. I don’t think I’ll have him in “must starts” until I see several good outing sin a row.
Max Scherzer gets a tough challenge here with the Orioles. He has a 21.7% K% and 3.8% BB% so far. So far the command has been amazing (111 Location+), but the Stuff+ is at 84 and the velo is down even more; so the age is weighing on him.
Taj Bradley gets the toughest matchup in the league for him, probably. He gets a ton of strikeouts and limitst he walks, but he has trouble with the long ball, and that’s not a good feature to have in your game when you’re taking on the Yankees. I’d still start him in most cases.
Lots of names in the “Leaning Start” category here. It really all depends on where you’re at in your current matchup. In season-long roto or points leagues, I’d be starting most all of those guys, I just use that category to show you that they are not “no-questions-asked” starters.