It’s free today! This comes out every two days to get you some help on possible streamers and start/sit decisions. Thursday it will go back completely behind the paywall, so become a paid sub today to get this and everything else.
Quick reminder here, don’t rely too much on the point projection shown below. I have no great way to project pitch counts for some of these guys, and a lot of times it’ll have to use a default 80 pitch count, and that is really wrong for a lot of guys that function more as openers. The numbers are there so I can do an automated sorting at the start, and then I come in and manually move things around to where I think they should be.
Some interesting names to watch the next two days
Ben Brown (CHC): He’s nasty, but wild. He’s now in a starter’s role and faces off against the Brewers tomorrow. I don’t want to start him yet given the tough matchup and the lack of command, but he has the arm talent to have good outings if he does throw strikes.
Alek Manoah (TOR): This is a tough one if you have him in a super deep league. The matchup couldn’t be better against the White Sox without Eloy or Robert, but Manoah might not be a Major League pitcher either. I wouldn’t start him, but a quality start is certainly in the range of possible outcomes.
I was also thinking about how we should approach pitchers against the Braves now with Ronald Acuna Jr. on the shelf. Since 2023, the Braves have slashed .270/.337/.480 with a homer every 22 PAs.
Taking Acuna’s numbers out of that: .264/.328/.472 with a homer every 23 PAs. That’s a decent drop, and it doesn’t even take into account the extra bases that Acuna steals. So it’s a big hit for the Braves lineup and it does put more pitchers into consideration, but their projected lineups’ OPS score today is .793, third-best on the slate, so it’s still a very, very good lineup. Before I would be considering benching my SP3-SP4 against the Braves, but now I’m probably rolling those guys out.
A reminder on your best and worst matchups for pitchers:
10 Best SP Matchups (by ERA against)
White Sox 2.58
Marlins 3.27
Athletics 3.52
Rays 3.54
Pirates 3.56
Mariners 3.56
Cardinals 3.59
Reds 3.61
Mets 3.68
Blue Jays 3.71
10 Worst SP Matchups
Phillies 4.85
Dodgers 4.71
Roylas 4.68
Brewers 4.67
Yankees 4.63
Orioles 4.58
Guardians 4.46
Braves 4.27
D’Backs 4.20
Astros 4.20
The Royals have a team strikeout rate below 19%, so it’s hard to rack up strikeouts against them, making them a middling matchup at best moving forward. They have been sneaky tough this year.
Now to your regularly scheduled programming:
Cole Ragans (KC) vs. MIN (19.99 Projected Fantasy Points)
Tyler Glasnow (LAD) vs. NYM (19.91 Projected Fantasy Points)
Zack Wheeler (PHI) vs. SF (17.63 Projected Fantasy Points)
Tarik Skubal (DET) vs. PIT (20.89 Projected Fantasy Points)
Luis Castillo (SEA) vs. HOU (16.67 Projected Fantasy Points)
Jared Jones (PIT) vs. DET (18.91 Projected Fantasy Points)
Nestor Cortes (NYY) vs. LAA (15.99 Projected Fantasy Points)
Grayson Rodriguez (BAL) vs. BOS (14.71 Projected Fantasy Points)
Max Fried (ATL) vs. WSH (14.69 Projected Fantasy Points)
Kevin Gausman (TOR) vs. CWS (14.34 Projected Fantasy Points)
Jesus Luzardo (MIA) vs. SD (12.69 Projected Fantasy Points)
Zack Littell (TB) vs. OAK (14.05 Projected Fantasy Points)
Triston McKenzie (CLE) vs. COL (13.66 Projected Fantasy Points)
Matt Waldron (SD) vs. MIA (14.26 Projected Fantasy Points)
Brandon Pfaadt (ARI) vs. TEX (12.65 Projected Fantasy Points)
Kyle Gibson (STL) vs. CIN (12.52 Projected Fantasy Points)
Tobias Myers (MIL) vs. CHC (12.45 Projected Fantasy Points)
Ben Brown (CHC) vs. MIL (12.24 Projected Fantasy Points)
Andrew Abbott (CIN) vs. STL (11.88 Projected Fantasy Points)
Brayan Bello (BOS) vs. BAL (11.69 Projected Fantasy Points)
Dane Dunning (TEX) vs. ARI (10.57 Projected Fantasy Points)
Griffin Canning (LAA) vs. NYY (13.28 Projected Fantasy Points)
Simeon Woods Richardson (MIN) vs. KC (11.16 Projected Fantasy Points)
Mitch Spence (OAK) vs. TB (11.05 Projected Fantasy Points)
Mike Clevinger (CWS) vs. TOR (10.83 Projected Fantasy Points)
Jake Irvin (WSH) vs. ATL (10.69 Projected Fantasy Points)
Jose Quintana (NYM) vs. LAD (9.84 Projected Fantasy Points)
Ryan Feltner (COL) vs. CLE (8.74 Projected Fantasy Points)
Shota Imanaga (CHC) vs. MIL (20.16 Projected Fantasy Points)
Corbin Burnes (BAL) vs. BOS (17.4 Projected Fantasy Points)
Jack Flaherty (DET) vs. PIT (18.91 Projected Fantasy Points)
Paul Skenes (PIT) vs. DET (13.02 Projected Fantasy Points)
Ryan Pepiot (TB) vs. OAK (17.18 Projected Fantasy Points)
Luis Gil (NYY) vs. LAA (16.18 Projected Fantasy Points)
Yu Darvish (SD) vs. MIA (15.43 Projected Fantasy Points)
Bailey Ober (MIN) vs. KC (14.31 Projected Fantasy Points)
MacKenzie Gore (WSH) vs. ATL (15.24 Projected Fantasy Points)
Seth Lugo (KC) vs. MIN (15.27 Projected Fantasy Points)
George Kirby (SEA) vs. HOU (14.21 Projected Fantasy Points)
Braxton Garrett (MIA) vs. SD (10.49 Projected Fantasy Points)
Cristopher Sanchez (PHI) vs. SF (13.94 Projected Fantasy Points)
Kyle Harrison (SF) vs. PHI (13.02 Projected Fantasy Points)
Kutter Crawford (BOS) vs. BAL (13.38 Projected Fantasy Points)
Hunter Brown (HOU) vs. SEA (14.56 Projected Fantasy Points)
Christian Scott (NYM) vs. LAD (12.86 Projected Fantasy Points)
Joey Estes (OAK) vs. TB (12.66 Projected Fantasy Points)
James Paxton (LAD) vs. NYM (13.54 Projected Fantasy Points)
Alek Manoah (TOR) vs. CWS (13.96 Projected Fantasy Points)
Ray Kerr (ATL) vs. WSH (10.44 Projected Fantasy Points)
Logan Allen (CLE) vs. COL (12.44 Projected Fantasy Points)
Tyler Anderson (LAA) vs. NYY (11.14 Projected Fantasy Points)
Andrew Heaney (TEX) vs. ARI (10.66 Projected Fantasy Points)
Ryne Nelson (ARI) vs. TEX (9.61 Projected Fantasy Points)
Andre Pallante (STL) vs. CIN (9.46 Projected Fantasy Points)
Chris Flexen (CWS) vs. TOR (8.66 Projected Fantasy Points)
Frankie Montas (CIN) vs. STL (8.58 Projected Fantasy Points)
Bryse Wilson (MIL) vs. CHC (7.79 Projected Fantasy Points)
Ty Blach (COL) vs. CLE (5.58 Projected Fantasy Points)
