Starts & Sits Advice :: September 27-29
Looking at today's and tomorrow's SP projections to help you make daily lineup and streamer decisions.
This will be the last one of these posts of the year. And it will be the worst one because we have very little idea of who will be pitching on Sunday. And there are plenty of spots we don’t even know about for tomorrow. If you’re still looking to pile up innings on your fantasy team, my advice would be to start the guys who are definitely starting today or tomorrow. Take the sure things.
The playoff picture has been narrowed down a bit these last few days. The American League looks set. The Twins lost two of three to the Marlins, and now they’re three back from the Tigers and Royals. The Mariners are also three back. So one Seattle or Minnesota both need to win three while one of the Royals and Tigers lose three - unlikely to happen.
The National League picture probably won’t be settled until Monday. The Braves are one game back of the Mets and Diamondbacks. The Braves and Mets now have two more games to play than the Diamondbacks. The Braves could crap out here in this home series against the Royals, and that would make the Monday doubleheader irrelevant - but more than likely, at least one of those Monday games will be important.
Here’s the picture for the next three days, according to CBS.
Today :: 2024-09-27
Must Starts
Luis Castillo (SEA) vs. OAK (20.91 Projected Fantasy Points)
Jacob deGrom (TEX) vs. LAA (18.97 Projected Fantasy Points)
Nick Pivetta (BOS) vs. TB (18.19 Projected Fantasy Points)
Pablo Lopez (MIN) vs. BAL (15.31 Projected Fantasy Points)
Max Fried (ATL) vs. KC (14.28 Projected Fantasy Points)
Ranger Suarez (PHI) vs. WSH (13.25 Projected Fantasy Points)
Leaning Start
Carlos Rodon (NYY) vs. PIT (18.69 Projected Fantasy Points)
Sean Manaea (NYM) vs. MIL (16.93 Projected Fantasy Points)
Garrett Crochet (CWS) vs. DET (17.78 Projected Fantasy Points)
Taj Bradley (TB) vs. BOS (14.57 Projected Fantasy Points)
Nick Martinez (CIN) vs. CHC (12.67 Projected Fantasy Points)
Leaning Sit
Jose Berrios (TOR) vs. MIA (13.76 Projected Fantasy Points)
Jared Jones (PIT) vs. NYY (13.39 Projected Fantasy Points)
Frankie Montas (MIL) vs. NYM (13.22 Projected Fantasy Points)
Reid Detmers (LAA) vs. TEX (15.14 Projected Fantasy Points)
JP Sears (OAK) vs. SEA (15.19 Projected Fantasy Points)
Joey Cantillo (CLE) vs. HOU (10.38 Projected Fantasy Points)
Brady Singer (KC) vs. ATL (12.74 Projected Fantasy Points)
Jameson Taillon (CHC) vs. CIN (12.54 Projected Fantasy Points)
Cade Povich (BAL) vs. MIN (12.38 Projected Fantasy Points)
Tony Gonsolin (LAD) vs. COL (12.08 Projected Fantasy Points)
Merrill Kelly (ARI) vs. SD (10.4 Projected Fantasy Points)
Sit
Casey Mize (DET) vs. CWS (13.31 Projected Fantasy Points)
Trevor Williams (WSH) vs. PHI (11.49 Projected Fantasy Points)
Miles Mikolas (STL) vs. SF (11.26 Projected Fantasy Points)
Ronel Blanco (HOU) vs. CLE (10.46 Projected Fantasy Points)
Landen Roupp (SF) vs. STL (9.32 Projected Fantasy Points)
Adam Oller (MIA) vs. TOR (9.28 Projected Fantasy Points)
Martin Perez (SD) vs. ARI (8.89 Projected Fantasy Points)
Cal Quantrill (COL) vs. LAD (6.59 Projected Fantasy Points)
Tomorrow :: 2024-09-28
The Pirates do have Skenes listed as their probable starter for tomorrow.
Zack Wheeler is scheduled to pitch, but it would make sense they’d hold him to 80 or so pitches as they set him up for game one next Friday.
Seth Lugo is also scheduled here, but the Royals will likely want him for game two on Wednesday, so it could be a very short outing for him if they’re already locked into a playoff spot.
Must Starts
Paul Skenes (PIT) vs. NYY (18.26 Projected Fantasy Points)
Blake Snell (SF) vs. STL (18.19 Projected Fantasy Points)
Bryan Woo (SEA) vs. OAK (17.46 Projected Fantasy Points)
Yoshinobu Yamamoto (LAD) vs. COL (16.8 Projected Fantasy Points)
Leaning Start
Charlie Morton (ATL) vs. KC (13.36 Projected Fantasy Points)
Luis Gil (NYY) vs. PIT (15.48 Projected Fantasy Points)
Zack Wheeler (PHI) vs. WSH (14.99 Projected Fantasy Points)
Brant Hurter (DET) vs. CWS (14.52 Projected Fantasy Points)
Seth Lugo (KC) vs. ATL (13.98 Projected Fantasy Points)
Andrew Heaney (TEX) vs. LAA (13.98 Projected Fantasy Points)
Kutter Crawford (BOS) vs. TB (13.69 Projected Fantasy Points)
Shane Baz (TB) vs. BOS (12.6 Projected Fantasy Points)
Leaning Sit
Rhett Lowder (CIN) vs. CHC (11.48 Projected Fantasy Points)
Yu Darvish (SD) vs. ARI (12.12 Projected Fantasy Points)
Andre Pallante (STL) vs. SF (13.35 Projected Fantasy Points)
Colin Rea (MIL) vs. NYM (13.73 Projected Fantasy Points)
David Peterson (NYM) vs. MIL (15.54 Projected Fantasy Points)
Yariel Rodriguez (TOR) vs. MIA (12.47 Projected Fantasy Points)
Sean Burke (CWS) vs. DET (12.44 Projected Fantasy Points)
Joey Estes (OAK) vs. SEA (12.42 Projected Fantasy Points)
Albert Suarez (BAL) vs. MIN (12.05 Projected Fantasy Points)
Zebby Matthews (MIN) vs. BAL (11.36 Projected Fantasy Points)
Sit
Griffin Canning (LAA) vs. TEX (13.58 Projected Fantasy Points)
MacKenzie Gore (WSH) vs. PHI (11.53 Projected Fantasy Points)
Justin Verlander (HOU) vs. CLE (9.79 Projected Fantasy Points)
Ben Lively (CLE) vs. HOU (9.61 Projected Fantasy Points)
Kyle Hendricks (CHC) vs. CIN (9.27 Projected Fantasy Points)
Darren McCaughan (MIA) vs. TOR (8.64 Projected Fantasy Points)
Eduardo Rodriguez (ARI) vs. SD (8.51 Projected Fantasy Points)
Antonio Senzatela (COL) vs. LAD (7.04 Projected Fantasy Points)
Tomorrow :: 2024-09-29
Most of these are guesses. 16 of 30 starters on MLB are listed as “TBD”. You should keep an eye on the page I linked to there.
Cole Ragans is on the schedule, but if the Royals are locked into a playoff spot by Sunday (which is very likely), I don’t see why they’d use him there when they’ll be starting a playoff series on Tuesday.
You could also see guys like Bryce Miller not make this start if the game isn’t meaningful.
It would take me a long time to give the full notes, so I would encourage you to not rely on what I’m saying here, and just continue to reference each team’s official probable starter list.
I would also say, don’t take on more risk than you have to here. Don’t let your championship match come down to hoping someone that isn’t listed as the starter makes the start and gets a normal workload. Get those innings in early.
Must Starts
Cole Ragans (KC) vs. ATL (16.61 Projected Fantasy Points)
Tarik Skubal (DET) vs. CWS (21.34 Projected Fantasy Points)
Hunter Greene (CIN) vs. CHC (18.19 Projected Fantasy Points)
Bryce Miller (SEA) vs. OAK (17.15 Projected Fantasy Points)
Michael King (SD) vs. ARI (12.84 Projected Fantasy Points)
Clarke Schmidt (NYY) vs. PIT (16.54 Projected Fantasy Points)
Bailey Ober (MIN) vs. BAL (16.33 Projected Fantasy Points)
Shota Imanaga (CHC) vs. CIN (15.97 Projected Fantasy Points)
Nathan Eovaldi (TEX) vs. LAA (15.09 Projected Fantasy Points)
Luis Severino (NYM) vs. MIL (14.75 Projected Fantasy Points)
Leaning Start
Spencer Arrighetti (HOU) vs. CLE (12.45 Projected Fantasy Points)
Ryan Pepiot (TB) vs. BOS (15.32 Projected Fantasy Points)
Aaron Nola (PHI) vs. WSH (14.01 Projected Fantasy Points)
Grant Holmes (ATL) vs. KC (13.45 Projected Fantasy Points)
Tanner Houck (BOS) vs. TB (11.64 Projected Fantasy Points)
Leaning Sit
Jack Kochanowicz (LAA) vs. TEX (8.18 Projected Fantasy Points)
Brandon Pfaadt (ARI) vs. SD (10.88 Projected Fantasy Points)
Dean Kremer (BAL) vs. MIN (14.07 Projected Fantasy Points)
Chris Bassitt (TOR) vs. MIA (16.99 Projected Fantasy Points)
Tobias Myers (MIL) vs. NYM (12.52 Projected Fantasy Points)
Landon Knack (LAD) vs. COL (12.45 Projected Fantasy Points)
Mitch Spence (OAK) vs. SEA (13.19 Projected Fantasy Points)
Sit
Ryan Weathers (MIA) vs. TOR (11.85 Projected Fantasy Points)
Michael McGreevy (STL) vs. SF (11.27 Projected Fantasy Points)
Hayden Birdsong (SF) vs. STL (10.67 Projected Fantasy Points)
Jake Irvin (WSH) vs. PHI (10.1 Projected Fantasy Points)
Pedro Avila (CLE) vs. HOU (9.62 Projected Fantasy Points)
Jonathan Cannon (CWS) vs. DET (9.52 Projected Fantasy Points)
Bailey Falter (PIT) vs. NYY (8.93 Projected Fantasy Points)
Ryan Feltner (COL) vs. LAD (8.15 Projected Fantasy Points)
This wasn’t very helpful, but at least I am aware of that! And that wraps up the first year of “Starts & Sits”. I hope it was a useful article for all of you, I am planning to bring it back for next year!