Ten Surprising Hitters Since the All-Star Break
I’ll probably be throwing some posts out like this during the football season, where we just highlight some stats in a quick fashion. I think that’s what the people want. Let’s do it, I found ten surprising hitters since the All-Star Break that need to be recognized!
Lars Nootbaar, St. Louis Cardinals
.286/.418/.543, 5 HR, 14.4% Brl%, 13.4% K%, 18.7% BB%, 77.1% Cont%
If you read my Daily Notes, you were on Nootbaar before anybody else. We identified him quite quickly and plenty of readers have been riding his great performance for a few weeks now.
He is the JA models’ #4 hitter since the break after Judge, Soto, and Goldy. He has a high barrel rate than strikeout rate, so that’s certainly a good sign. He’s pretty well-known by now, but if somehow your league is lagging behind - go grab him.
Yandy Diaz, Tampa Bay Rays
.248/.341/.455, 5 HR, 8.4% Brl%, 10.1% K%, 12.3% BB%, 85.4% Cont%, .384 xwOBA
We have been here for so long with Yandy, that the last month has probably been caused by randomness rather than anything that will stick around, but we have finally seen the guy get the ball off the ground for a bit.
The GB% is down to 43% since the break, and given how much contact he makes and how hard he hits the ball (51.4% hard-hit rate), that has turned into a nice home run rate, as we might have expected.
Yandy is rosterable for runs and OBP anyways, and who knows maybe the GB% change will stick around and he won’t hurt your fantasy team in homers for the last month.
Anthony Santander, Baltimore Orioles
.304/.354/.548, 8 HR, 12.6% Brl%, 17% K%, 4.8% BB%, .371 xwOBA
He’s been a really solid power hitter for a good bit of time now, and has taken that to the next level over the last month of play. A .902 OPS over nearly 150 plate appearances is nothing to sneeze at.
Nathaniel Lowe, Texas Rangers
.367/.404/.646, 10 HR, 13.5% Brl%, 23.1% K%, 4.5 BB%, 79.7% Cont%, .403 xwOBA
HR Leaders Since 6/1
Aaron Judge 31
Kyle Schwarber 24
Paul Goldschmidt 22
Matt Olson 21
Nathaniel Lowe 19
Marcus Semien 19
Austin Riley 19
He’s certainly rostered in your league, but he might be a guy to consider keeping or investing in for the future. He’s really turned a corner this year and is still just 27 years old.
Michael Harris II, Atlanta Braves
.319/.377/.546, 5 HR, 12.3% Brl%, 29.2% K%, 6.2% BB%, 66.9% Cont%
This is actually somewhat of a “bad news” part of the post, because nothing under the hood supports the slash line here. That’s a really high strikeout rate and a very bad contact rate, and he’s also put up a 58% GB%. I’m not entirely sure how a person slugs .546 with that many strikeouts and ground-balls, but the’s done it. If you can still trade at this point in the season in your league and you have Harris, he might be a good guy to sell-high on right now - although you certainly dont’ want to do that in a keeper league situation.
Jake Fraley, Cincinnati Reds
.312/.393/.584, 6 HR, 9.4% Brl%, 15.7% K%, 12.4% BB%, 83% Cont%, .365 xwOBA
If you’ve been reading what I write for any amount of time, you know I love a guy with an 80%+ contact rate along with a decent barrel rate, and Fraley has done that since getting healthy.
Since July 1st, he has 89 plate appearances and has homered six times while stealing two bases and hitting .312 with a .584 SLG. The batting average isn’t quite believable since he’s slow, but the strikeout rate and home ballpark certainly do support a half-decent batting average. I’m in love with Fraley right now, IN LOVE WITH HIM, don’t tell my wife.
Jake McCarthy, Arizona Diamondbacks
.333/.393/.435, 1 HR, 0% Brl%, 11.5% K%, 9% BB%, 76.9% Cont%, 10 SB
The call-up of Corbin Carroll might cost McCarthy some playing time, but I’m leaning towards that working its way out because how can you bench a guy hitting .333, slugging .435, and having 10 stolen bases over his last 32 games.
Emmanuel Rivera, Arizona Diamondbacks
.266/.382/.578, 5 HR, 16.3% Brl%, 19.7% K%, 11.8% BB%, 72.8% Cont%, .370 xwOBA
I feel a little bit of a connection to Rivera, because I mentioned him as a potential breakout hitter very early on in the year. Since joining his new team, he’s been great.
Rowdy Tellez, Milwaukee Brewers
.238/.344/.533, 9 HR, 16.3% Brl%, 20.5% K%, 13.9% BB%%, .419 xwOBA
Tellez leads the whole league in xwOBA since the all-star break. It seems like he’s trailed off throughout the year after his hot start, but he really hasn’t - and few hitters have been hitting the ball with more authority in the second half than he has.
Bubba Thompson, Texas Rangers
.242/.292/.258, 0 HR, 0 Brl%, 31.9% K%, 4.2% BB%, 8 SB
Thompson has zero redeeming qualities in his games besides those eight steals. Since he debuted on August 4th, he leads the league in stolen bases despite not playing every day and despite not exactly racking up the base hits.
The lack of power actually helps him a bit here since we are rostering him for steals, and it’s harder to steal bases when you’re hitting for extra-bases. One somewhat positive signal is that he’s lowered his K% in recent days:
Anything above 30% is still quite bad, but it’s somewhat possible that he’ll lead the league in steals from here on out, and I think that makes him start-worthy in most leagues.
That’s ten for ya, hope you enjoyed!