Thanksgiving NFL DFS Slate Breakdown
A breakdown of the Thanksgiving NFL DFS slate, with an emphasis on putting together a single high-floor lineup on DraftKings.
Progress Update
I’m coming off my second-best week of the year, and the ROI is up to +14%. Here’s hoping for continued success and luck. Check out the week 12 lineup review for more.
Thanksgiving Slate Overview
I spent all of my free time on the Thanksgiving slate. And since I don’t have free time Thursday or Friday, I won’t be able to get a post like this out for the Sunday slate. I’ll try to get my player pool out there in a quick post on Friday or Saturday morning, but I can’t make any promises.
I covered this three-game slate in detail, so hopefully it makes up for missing Sunday. Here’s the overview:
Here are those team totals in order:
Lions 29.5
Packers 25.5
Dolphins 22
Cowboys 21.5
Bears 19
Giants 17.5
It’s far from the most exciting Thanksgiving slate we’ve ever had. I don’t think the NFL counted on a Cooper Rush vs. Tommy DeVito game in Dallas or the Lions being a double-digit favorite against the young Bears, but that’s where we’re at. And the great thing about gambling (whoops oh I meant to say skill games) is that we can have fun even in low-scoring and blowout games!
Bears vs. Lions
Game Environment
O/U: 48.5
Spread: Lions -10.5
The Lions have been smashing teams all year long, and that’s how they set up here once again. Crazier things have happened, of course, but Detroit has just been so impressive offensively:
Yards/Play: 6.2 (2nd in NFL)
Yards/Pass: 8.9 (2nd)
Yards/Rush: 4.7 (8th)
EPA/Play: 0.122 (2nd)
On defense, they are slightly better than average in yards per play allowance (5.0 vs. a league average of 5.2). They do such a good job of holding the ball that their defense has allowed the sixth-fewest fantasy points against. They’re also very solid on a per-snap basis (fourth-best behind Denver, Philly, and the Jets). The one angle to attack is that since they’re so often in the lead, they allow a lot of pass attempts. They’ve allowed the eighth-most passing yards and the fifth-most attempts. There’s a case that the Bears could volume themselves to some points through the air.
With just three games to choose from, we have to examine every single angle of the slate. I will be building extensive rankings at each position. Let’s start.
Quarterbacks
Jared Goff ($6,500) is currently near the upper bound of his price range.
The floor is unappealing, but he does have 30-point upside. He has been all over the map in terms of fantasy point production.
When he has down games, that is most often because he is not asked to do much. The Lions have won several games with their run game. The Bears aren’t an offense likely to push the Lions, so I would be expecting/projecting a pass attempts figure around 23-25.
Goff is the slate’s most expensive QB. I don’t see myself as likely to play him, but he will likely have a top-two projection, so it might happen for me. I’m building out these rankings one by one, so he’s at the top of the QB list.
Caleb Williams ($5,300) is on the other side. Only Deshaun Watson and Gardner Minshew have averaged a worst EPA per player than Williams. He has a bad 6.25 YPA (third-worst), a 62% completion rate (third-worst), and a 2.9% TD% (third-worst).
The case to be made for him is that he’s cheap and will likely have to throw 30+ times in this game. When he’s had to throw it 30+ times, he’s scored 23, 29, 9, 9, 16, and 27 points. So he can get into the twenties. And he does have some rushing upside,, exceeding 30 rushing yards on six occasions this year.
Williams isn’t a good player, but the price and nature of the matchup do keep him reconsideration for me. I think I’d rather punt it off with him than pay the big tag for Goff, so I’ll add him to the top of the list.
Running Backs
David Montgomery ($6,500) left Sunday’s game with an injury but has since said that he could have returned and will be fine for Thursday. That makes for another tough choice between him and Jahmyr Gibbs ($7,500). The $1,000 price difference and the fact that the Lions are a big favorite pushes me toward Montgomery here. He has averaged just two points per game fewer than Gibbs.
If I’m building a bunch of lineups, I want one (but not both) of these guys in every single lineup. That’s a pretty simple tournament rule for this three-game slate. There has been a single game where at least one of them didn’t go for 15+ points. This backfield is the safest place on the slate to go to for fantasy points.
D’Andre Swift ($6,000) is on the other side. He’s been good for 12-15 carries and 2-4 targets per game this year. The floor is scarier than the ceiling is appealing. By that, I mean there’s a much higher chance for a score below 15 than a score above 20, but you can’t poke too many holes in him on a three-gamer.
I don’t think there’s much of a path to 15+ carries in this one, but a 5+ target game could happen, with the Bears likely playing catch-up.
I’m going Montgomery, Gibbs, and Swift to start my RB ranks.
Pass Catchers
Amon-Ra St. Brown ($8,000) is the slate’s most expensive player. There is a questionable tag on him right now, as he missed Monday’s practice with a reported knee issue. I wouldn’t worry about that for now, probably just some kind of rest day, but it’s something to track.
St. Brown leads the team in target share (28%), TPRR (26%), and yards per route (2.3). He has monstrous upside, but there have been four games, by my count, that would have been large disappointments at $8,000.
On a three-game slate, we can be less price-sensitive and just build for raw floor. St. Brown fits that strategy. That doesn’t mean he’s a lock for me, we’ll have to have a value play or two to get there, but I like him a lot more than the other higher-priced receivers.
Jameson Williams ($6,100) is the #2 for Detroit. He has a boom-or-bust role with his 14.1 ADoT and lower 5.3 targets per game. If he doesn’t haul in a long ball, the $6,100 will be tough to stomach. I don’t want to play him, but he should be mixed into the lineups for tournaments. It would make sense to play him in Caleb Williams lineups, as a big game from Williams would probably mean a quicker drive or two from the Lions to put the ball back in Williams’ hands.
Sam LaPorta ($4,100) was the #1 tight end in fantasy last year, but he’s not been nearly that good this year. His price has reached a new low for Turkey Day:
In his ten games played, he’s averaged just 3.8 targets, 2.8 catches, and 39 receiving yards. He does have a 20% share (4/20) for the team inside the ten yard line. There is touchdown upside with the guy despite the fact that he has just three all year. I’m pretty interested in taking the discount - but I also think he’ll be popular on a slate without an elite tight end option.
On the Bear's side, let’s check the numbers since week eight, after all of their main weapons were healthy again.
→ Allen: 47 targets, 24-246-1, 9.6 ADoT, 29% Tgt%, 23% TPRR
→ Moore: 34 targets, 23-252-1, 6.2 ADoT, 21% Tgt%, 16% TPRR
→ Odunze: 39 targets, 22-272-0, 13.4 ADoT, 24% Tgt%, 20% TPRR
→ C Kmet: 20 targets, 13-133-0, 6.9 ADoT, 12% Tgt%, 15% TPRR
The prices:
→ Keenan Allen $5,100
→ DJ Moore: $5,600
→ Rome Odunze: $5,000
→ Cole Kmet: $3,600
Keenan Allen is the best play for our cash lineup build. Moore is the upside play, and Odunze is probably just a “contrarian” take. I don’t think much ownership will be on him.
Recap / Targets
I’m building out full rankings at the end of this year, so I’ve listed every player I mentioned here. So check that out.
The guys in play for my single lineup build are:
Gibbs
Montgomery
St. Brown
Allen
Goff
LaPorta
Giants vs. Cowboys
Game Environment
O/U: 39
Spread: Cowboys -4
This is the lowest total of the three by far. This game could be very ugly and finish 13-10 or something like that.
So, if you’re picking a focal point, this isn’t it, but we cannot ignore a game entirely when it makes for 33% of the slate.
Quarterbacks
Cooper Rush ($4,800) is a viable QB option, if not only because of the price. After his debut as a starter this year when he scored zero points on 42 snaps (a remarkable feat…), he has scored 19 and 18 fantasy points. He threw for 354 yards against the Texans and then 247 more against the Commanders with three total touchdowns. He does not run, so the floor is extremely low. The matchup is good though, as the Giants have allowed the fifth-highest YPA to opposing QBs this year. I like Rush better than either option in the first game.
We have Tommy DeVito ($4,500) on the other side for even cheaper! Dallas has been crushed by opposing QBs, giving up 8.2 yards per pass attempt and the fifth-most overall fantasy points. DeVito did run it seven times last week for 32 yards, adding 189 passing yards on 31 attempts. It wasn’t an awful game for his price, and that was without the benefit of a touchdown.
There isn’t much in terms of “can’t miss ceiling” at the QB position on this slate, so I’m gravitating towards one of these punt options. Give me 15 points, and let me beat my opponents with the expensive skill players. Rush and DeVito are going to the top of the list in that order.
Running Backs
We don’t have much in terms of floor with these two running backs, but both are viable options on this slate.
Rico Dowdle ($5,500) has run it 53 times and added 17 targets in his last four games. He still does not have a rushing touchdown this year, as Ezekiel Elliott ($4,400) has taken both of those from him (the Cowboys have scored just three rushing TDs all year). The key point to make is that this is really Dowdle’s backfield now. Elliott has played 12, 25, and 12 snaps in his last three games, while Dowdle has been at 30, 38, and 39. No other running back has been targeted out of the backfield, so Dowdle does give us a decent floor.
The Giants had a pretty even split last week between Tyrone Tracy ($5,800) and Devin Singletary ($4,800).
→ Tracy: 23 snaps, 8 routes, 9 rushes, 4 targets
→ Singletary: 19 snaps, 12 routes, 2 attempts, 2 targets
Singletary scored the touchdown. Tracy does have the big-play ability, so I don’t want to totally exclude him from my player pool, but I’m not going to touch this backfield for my cash lineup.
Pass Catchers
CeeDee Lamb ($7,300) is still down in price from his former heights, but the role is much weaker with Rush under center. In these last three games, he’s gone just 24-181-0 with a 5.6 ADoT, but a very high 31% TPRR. He has seen 10, 12, and 12 targets in these three games. Despite that, he’s failed to reach 20 DraftKings points in any of those games. Some more on Lamb:
→ From Dak: 8.5 ADoT, 64% Catch%
→ From Rush: 6.2 ADoT, 64% Catch%
It seems like he’s traded some air yards for an extra couple of targets per game, and I’m fine with that trade. I think Lamb is one of the better plays on the slate.
With Jake Ferguson ($3,900) out most of week 11 and all of week 12, Luke Schoonmaker ($3,400) has seen a 9-111-1 line on 14 targets. It’s unclear whether or not Ferguson will make it back for this game. I would like him quite a bit at his price if he is back. So both of these plays will be high up on the list, but the Schoonmaker is conditional on Ferguson being out again, obviously.
There is very little work leftover for other receivers after Lamb and the tight end take their share. Jalen Tolbert ($3,800) has 14 targets and a 7-57-1 line in these last three games with Rush. That’s not very good. The floor is extremely low, but he’s run as many routes (34) as Lamb has these last three weeks, so he’s a viable punt option if you really need a salary saver.
Last week for the Giants:
→ Nabers: 9 targets, 6-64-0, 9.7 ADoT, 24% TPRR
→ Robinson: 5 targets, 5-47-0, 6.2 ADoT, 14% TPRR
→ Johnson: 6 targets, 3-39-0, 2.7 ADioT, 24% TPRR
Malik Nabers ($7,100) is right there in price with Lamb, and I’d prefer Lamb for $200 more. But it was a good sign to get nine targets from DeVito. The ceiling is still there for Nabers. Wan’Dale Robinson ($4,700) doesn’t have much of a ceiling at all, but he should be good for 3-5 catches at $4,700. That can work in a cash lineup, but I’d rather not make that play.
Recap/Targets
I don’t want to load up on this game. But I can see myself making these plays in cash:
CeeDee Lamb $7,300
Rico Dowdle $5,500
Cooper Rush $4,800
Tommy DeVito $4,500
Dolphins vs. Packers
Game Environment
O/U: 47.5
Spread: Packers -3.5
This is the best game environment of the slate with a high total and a tight spread. If there’s a thrilling game that goes down to the wire, it will likely be this one. It’s also the only game with both teams in the playoff picture.
Both defenses are decent, and both are tougher against the run than against the pass. That works nicely because both teams are happy to throw it a bunch.
Quarterbacks
It’s Jordan Love ($6,300) and Tua Tagovailoa ($6,000). Neither guy runs, and there aren’t many ceiling games being generated by these two. It certainly could happen, and both names have pretty nice floors. They’ll both likely chuck it 30+ times, and both offense are good enough to rack up 3-4 touchdowns.
I can’t really parse between the two. The Dolphins throw a lot more overall (+1.5% PROE over the last five weeks compared to Green Bay’s -13%) and they throw it more in the redzone (58% vs. 53%). With that, I’d prefer Tua for $300 less. I do think I’m heading toward using one of the QBs in the second game, but I’ll throw Tua and Love on here at #3 and #4.
Running Backs
Josh Jacobs ($7,000) is coming off of his best game of the year. He scored three touchdowns last week in addition to his 106-yard game on 26 carries. The role is great, and he’s been above 20 DraftKings points in four of his last five games. They’re really leaning on him around the goal line, and he’s scored six touchdowns in these last four games. He’s one of the better RB plays on the slate, but I can’t say I love the price since he’s been pretty touchdown-dependent this year, and the Dolphins ’s rush defense is decent.
The role for De’Von Achane ($7,700) is very nice. He’s seen at least four targets in each of his last five games, with a high of eight, and he has had four receiving touchdowns over his last five games. In the red zone over the last four weeks, he’s seen 11 carries and seven targets. Raheem Mostert ($4,700) does factor in down there with 13 red zone rush attempts of his own, but Achane has shown the role and ability to score touchdowns this year - so that’s not much of a concern. He’s almost more than doubled up Mostert in total carries since week seven, with a fantastic 5.0 yards per carry. He’s a very strong play for me. I think you could take a crack at Mostert in tournaments because a two-touchdown game is something he can do - you just have to deal with the very low floor.
Pass Catchers
Romeo Doubs ($4,600) is questionable. If he’s out that, that would make the Packers passing game more appealing. As I have written many times this year, it’s tough to pick between these guys because the targets are spread out. We also have a very run-heavy attack from them recently, and that brings down the floors and ceilings even more. Since week seven, Doubs has led the league with 21% Tgt%, and nobody else is above 17%. Here’s some of that receiving data over the last five games:
Christian Watson ($4,900) is my favorite play of the bunch because of the price. He has been pacing the team in snaps and routes lately and does have big-play ability. I like him a good bit. Jayden Reed ($5,700) has seen his price falling but has been under ten points in four of his last five games. None of these guys are safe, but they all have a decent amount of upside. I’d rather leave the Packers’ receiving room alone, but I have to rank all of these guys for this article. So I’ll put it at 1) Watson 2) Doubs 3) Reed.
If Doubs does miss, Dontayvion Wicks ($4,200) would viable. He has a fantastic 26% TPRR on the year, but he doesn’t get on the field very much with all of these other guys healthy.
The tight ends haven’t gotten many looks, and we have many better plays at the position, so we can ignore Tucker Kraft ($3,700).
We haven’t seen the usual Tyreek Hill ($6,900) this year, but that has made his price fall below $7,000 for the first time in a very long time.
Since Tua returned in week eight (five games):
→ Hill: 32 targets, 25-277-2, 19% Tgt%, 20% TPRR
→ Smith: 35 targets, 27-299-3, 21% Tgt%, 25% TPRR
→ Waddle: 26 targets, 19-302-2, 16% Tgt%, 16% TPRR
I’m hesitant to buy in on Jonnu Smith ($4,300) being the primary target in the passing game, but you can’t deny what he’s been doing. He has 19 targets and 15 catches for 188 yards and three touchdowns over the last two games. He’ll be popular, and I think he’s a decent fade in tournaments, but he’s probably the top tight end target for cash.
Recap/Targets
The plays I could consider for cash;
Achane
Smith
Jacobs
Tagovailoa
Watson
I’m putting my full player ranks and lineup thoughts below the paywall.