The Week Ahead: June 5th - June 11th
Every Monday an automated report gives you a look at two-start SPs, hitter strength of schedules, and other fantasy-relevant information for the week ahead.
More NEWNESS here at the MLB Data Warehouse. As I mentioned yesterday, a new aspiration I have is for this blog to have a unique, mostly automated post every day of the week.
If it all comes to life, it will look something like this:
Weekends: Waiver Wire Targets
Mondays: Streamers (2 start pitchers, schedule analysis)
Tuesdays: Recent Standout Hitters
Wednesdays: Recent Standout Pitchers
Thursdays: ??
Fridays: ??
Maybe I can do duds on Thursdays and Fridays, or something like that. I don’t know!
What I’m really imagining is just turning this Substack into a content machine that gives you everything you go to other sites for, but does it mostly with Python scripts that do the work for me so I can get all of it out without
a) having it dominate my life
b) having to pay anyone else
To be crass, I want to
a) bring attention my myself
b) make money
c) not work for it
It’s not the most virtuous and Christlike goal - I’ll admit, but I can take solace in the fact that I’m not like e-mailing you guys porn every day or something bad like that.
This will improve as we move forward, I just kind of ran out of time programming it cause games are about to get going and I have other stuff going on. Hopefully we’ll improve these every week for a few weeks until we get a finished product, and then these posts will be set in stone for the future!
So here’s your first iteration - it’s free for all this time, not because I’m nice - but because I want people that aren’t already paying me to see it so maybe they’ll decide to start paying me to get this in the future.
Please send in ideas on what I could add to this for it to be most-helpful. There are certainly plenty of other avenues to explore. If I had weekly projections, that would open up a lot of doors… so maybe I’ll re-explore that possibility in the coming weeks.
The Week Ahead :: 6/6 ~ 6/11
First, we have the full list of scheduled two-start SPs. It’s ordered by 2023 K-BB%.
Two-Start SPs
Kevin Gausman (vs HOU, vs MIN): 75.0 IP, 27.0 K-BB%, 2.76 ERA, 1.12 WHIP
James Paxton (@CLE, @NYY): 19.0 IP, 25.0 K-BB%, 4.26 ERA, 1.26 WHIP
Zach Eflin (vs MIN, vs TEX): 60.0 IP, 21.1 K-BB%, 3.3 ERA, 1.0 WHIP
Shane McClanahan (@BOS, vs TEX): 69.7 IP, 19.5 K-BB%, 2.07 ERA, 1.15 WHIP
Braxton Garrett (vs KC, @CWS): 53.3 IP, 18.5 K-BB%, 4.22 ERA, 1.31 WHIP
Louie Varland (@TB, @TOR): 41.0 IP, 18.4 K-BB%, 3.51 ERA, 1.15 WHIP
Clarke Schmidt (vs CWS, vs BOS): 55.7 IP, 18.4 K-BB%, 5.01 ERA, 1.51 WHIP
JP Sears (@PIT, @MIL): 59.7 IP, 17.7 K-BB%, 4.37 ERA, 1.07 WHIP
Sean Manaea (@COL, vs CHC): 36.7 IP, 16.7 K-BB%, 5.89 ERA, 1.55 WHIP
Lucas Giolito (@NYY, vs MIA): 68.3 IP, 16.6 K-BB%, 4.08 ERA, 1.26 WHIP
Aaron Nola (vs DET, vs LAD): 74.7 IP, 15.5 K-BB%, 4.7 ERA, 1.12 WHIP
Brayan Bello (vs TB, @NYY): 39.3 IP, 15.3 K-BB%, 3.89 ERA, 1.47 WHIP
Bryce Elder (vs NYM, vs WSH): 65.6 IP, 13.9 K-BB%, 1.92 ERA, 1.16 WHIP
Freddy Peralta (vs BAL, vs OAK): 60.3 IP, 13.6 K-BB%, 4.62 ERA, 1.41 WHIP
Brandon Bielak (@TOR, @CLE): 31.0 IP, 12.1 K-BB%, 3.19 ERA, 1.45 WHIP
Hayden Wesneski (@LAA, @SF): 43.0 IP, 11.6 K-BB%, 4.19 ERA, 1.26 WHIP
Blake Snell (vs CHC, @COL): 56.0 IP, 10.9 K-BB%, 4.5 ERA, 1.5 WHIP
Joey Wentz (@PHI, vs ARI): 47.0 IP, 10.6 K-BB%, 7.28 ERA, 1.68 WHIP
Shane Bieber (vs BOS, vs HOU): 75.0 IP, 10.2 K-BB%, 3.72 ERA, 1.29 WHIP
Julio Teheran (@CIN, vs OAK): 11.0 IP, 9.5 K-BB%, 0.82 ERA, 0.82 WHIP
Martin Perez (vs STL, @TB): 61.0 IP, 8.9 K-BB%, 4.43 ERA, 1.54 WHIP
Johan Oviedo (vs OAK, vs NYM): 58.0 IP, 8.6 K-BB%, 4.5 ERA, 1.55 WHIP
Tony Gonsolin (@CIN, @PHI): 35.7 IP, 8.5 K-BB%, 1.77 ERA, 0.9 WHIP
Kyle Gibson (@MIL, vs KC): 71.7 IP, 8.1 K-BB%, 3.89 ERA, 1.31 WHIP
Dinelson Lamet (vs SF, vs SD): 13.7 IP, 6.9 K-BB%, 13.84 ERA, 2.49 WHIP
Kyle Hendricks (@SD, @SF): 9.3 IP, 6.8 K-BB%, 3.86 ERA, 1.82 WHIP
Adam Wainwright (@TEX, vs CIN): 26.3 IP, 6.4 K-BB%, 6.15 ERA, 1.71 WHIP
Tommy Henry (@WSH, @DET): 41.0 IP, 5.4 K-BB%, 3.73 ERA, 1.24 WHIP
Carlos Carrasco (@ATL, @PIT): 31.3 IP, 4.4 K-BB%, 5.74 ERA, 1.37 WHIP
Jake Irvin (vs ARI, @ATL): 27.0 IP, 4.0 K-BB%, 5.67 ERA, 1.63 WHIP
Alek Manoah (vs HOU, vs MIN): 57.7 IP, 2.6 K-BB%, 5.46 ERA, 1.77 WHIP
Andrew Abbott (vs MIL, @STL): no 2023 stats accrued yet
I think JP Sears should be streamed for his two starts against the Pirate and Brewers. You could also roll the dice on Schmidt, Wesneski, and Henry.
I’m not starting Manoah in any matchup right now, so it’s a pretty easy sit with one of those starts scheduled against the Astros. He’s been insanely bad, like insanely, insanely bad this year - no redeeming qualities whatsoever, so don’t do it.
Next, you’ll get to see how many games each team has scheduled, and it even breaks down the handedness of the scheduled probable against them! These are subject to change, and in fact, plenty of them will end up being wrong as rotations get shuffled around, but it’s the best guess we have right now. And no, this will not be updated during the week.
Games Scheduled
MIL: 7 games (5 vs. RHP, 2 vs. LHP)
TOR: 7 games (6 vs. RHP, 1 vs. LHP)
BOS: 7 games (6 vs. RHP, 1 vs. LHP)
CHC: 7 games (2 vs. RHP, 4 vs. LHP)
CIN: 7 games (5 vs. RHP, 2 vs. LHP)
TB: 7 games (5 vs. RHP, 2 vs. LHP)
HOU: 7 games (6 vs. RHP, 0 vs. LHP)
NYM: 6 games (5 vs. RHP, 1 vs. LHP)
TEX: 6 games (4 vs. RHP, 2 vs. LHP)
STL: 6 games (4 vs. RHP, 2 vs. LHP)
SF: 6 games (6 vs. RHP, 0 vs. LHP)
SD: 6 games (4 vs. RHP, 2 vs. LHP)
PIT: 6 games (4 vs. RHP, 2 vs. LHP)
PHI: 6 games (4 vs. RHP, 2 vs. LHP)
OAK: 6 games (6 vs. RHP, 0 vs. LHP)
NYY: 6 games (5 vs. RHP, 1 vs. LHP)
ARI: 6 games (3 vs. RHP, 3 vs. LHP)
MIN: 6 games (5 vs. RHP, 1 vs. LHP)
ATL: 6 games (5 vs. RHP, 1 vs. LHP)
MIA: 6 games (6 vs. RHP, 0 vs. LHP)
LAD: 6 games (4 vs. RHP, 2 vs. LHP)
LAA: 6 games (4 vs. RHP, 2 vs. LHP)
KC: 6 games (4 vs. RHP, 2 vs. LHP)
DET: 6 games (5 vs. RHP, 1 vs. LHP)
CWS: 6 games (5 vs. RHP, 1 vs. LHP)
COL: 6 games (4 vs. RHP, 2 vs. LHP)
CLE: 6 games (5 vs. RHP, 1 vs. LHP)
BAL: 6 games (5 vs. RHP, 1 vs. LHP)
WSH: 6 games (3 vs. RHP, 2 vs. LHP)
SEA: 5 games (4 vs. RHP, 1 vs. LHP)
I have an SP grading algorithm that I can use to get the average SP grade for each team’s scheduled opposition. I can then show you the softest and toughest schedules this week.
The Diamondbacks have a cakewalk here against the Nationals and Tigers, oh baby!
Softest Hitter Schedules
ARI: Jake Irvin, Patrick Corbin, Josiah Gray, Michael Lorenzen, Matthew Boyd, Joey Wentz
SF: Dinelson Lamet, Connor Seabold, Chase Anderson, Marcus Stroman, Kyle Hendricks, Hayden Wesneski
CHC: Blake Snell, Tyler Anderson, Jaime Barria, Reid Detmers, Anthony DeSclafani, Jakob Junis, Alex Wood
Annnnd the Red Sox will be put to the test up against McClanahan, Bieber, Bibee, and Cole!
Toughest Hitter Schedules
BOS: Shane McClanahan, Shane Bieber, Tanner Bibee, Aaron Civale, Gerrit Cole, Domingo German, Clarke Schmidt
TOR: Brandon Bielak, Hunter Brown, Ronel Blanco, Framber Valdez, Sonny Gray, Joe Ryan, Louie Varland
KC: Braxton Garrett, Jesus Luzardo, Edward Cabrera, Tyler Wells, Austin Voth, Kyle Gibson
The full data for all 30 teams is in a Google Sheet, and the link is below the Paywall for paid subs.
Lastly, we’ll just check the scheduled games in Coors and Great American Ballpark, the best hitting environments in the league by a good margin:
Coors Games
6/6: SF@COL
6/7: SF@COL
6/8: SF@COL
6/9: SD@COL
6/10: SD@COL
6/11: SD@COL
Great American Ballpark Games
6/5: MIL@CIN
6/6: LAD@CIN
6/7: LAD@CIN
6/8: LAD@CIN
Again, let me know what else you would like to see here - hope you’re liking the new content. Shout out to Producer Lee for the new logo too!