Top 100 SP Update
I Re-Rank My Top 100 [healthy] Starting Pitchers
Ranking 100 pitchers sounds more fun than it actually is. It’s a tough thing to do. Especially to keep an updated list of healthy SPs since guys are going on and off the IL so frequently.
But I did it. And here’s the new top 100. I did not rank anybody who is currently on the IL.
Tier One
Tarik Skubal, Tigers
I’ve got him here all alone. There are a handful of guys close, but I see a clear seperation between Skubal and the rest of the pack. He’s something else.
Tier Two
Hunter Greene, Reds
Zack Wheeler, Phillies
Chris Sale, Braves
Garrett Crochet, Red Sox
These could go in whatever way you want, I think. Maybe it’s aggressive going to #2 on Greene, but whatever this is my blog. Greene’s 1.71 JA ERA fourth-best in the league (behind Skubal and then Gilbert and Ragans who are on the IL). What he’s done with his walk rate is incredible. He’s at a 29.1% Ball% this year and a 5.2% BB%. I didn’t think he could do that, but somehow he’s done it without giving up strikeouts. Total stud SP.
I’m forgiving Sale’s slow start. But I owe the Braves’ fans some extra spots here for my trangressions of being down on Sale during draft season. He’s looked as good as anybody in May.
Crochet stands out with the pitch count. He’s thrown 98.7 pitches per game and he’s gone well into the 100s several times. I’m a little surprised the Red Sox would do that, but it’s great for his value. And the 21.7% K-BB% and 1.45 WHIP+ allowed are elite.
So there’s your second tier.
Tier Three
Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Dodgers
Paul Skenes, Pirates
Joe Ryan, Twins
Yamamoto’s fastball doesn’t get a lot of whiffs (5.8% SwStr%), and there is at least some small question about his innings counts after missing a ton of time last year. The Dodgers aren’t in great position to limit him though, and everything else about him is so good. The quality starts and wins are so easy to come by for the guy. I think he should be in everybody’s top 10, but I’ve allowed him to fall down here to tier three.
As for Skenes, the strikeout rate isn’t all that fantastic. He’s under 26%, and the Pirates have not given him much run support - so the wins are tough.
Joe Ryan is just a joy. He has a 0.83 WHIP on the year and has walked nine batters in 63 innings. The home run stuff has also been under control so far (1.1 HR/9). I make no guarantee that the number will stay near one, but the K-BB% is so good and the guy is so consistent, I couldn’t keep him out of my top 10.
Tier Four
Max Fried, Yankees
Logan Webb, Giants
Dylan Cease, Giants
Carlos Rodon, Yankees
MacKenzie Gore, Nationals
Max Fried looks like his prime self this year. The K% is up to 24% (strong for him) and the walk rate is back to an elite mark under 6%. And he has his usual hard contact suppression thing going with a 5% HR/FB, a .299 xwOBA, and a .523 OPS allowed. He’s very tough to hit.
Logan Webb has the highest K% of his career. I don’t think that will keep up, but it’s nice to see. His SwStr% is still about average (12.3%), but it’s up more than two points from last year. The command is elite, the stuff is strong, and the home ballpark fits him perfectly.
As for Dylan Cease, we have once again seen the inconsistencies. The ERA is bloated (4.58) by a nine earned run outing he had in April. Other than that, he’s been great. The 29% K% and 8% BB% are fantastic, and he’s leading the charge on a good Padres team.
Carlos Rodon is having a career year right now. The K-BB% is at 22.5%, and he’s really limited the long ball so far at a 0.99 HR/9. The 14.5% SwStr% is strong. The issue is that he’s not usually super consistent, and his walk and ball rates are mediocre right now. So there will probably be some bad starts, but the good so far has vastly outweighted the bad, and I suspect it will continue.
I won’t be surprised if everyting goes away overnight for MacKenzie Gore, but I can’t deny what he’s doing now. The 36% K% is insane, the 8.2% BB% is the best mark of his career and a pretty competitive number in today’s league. He’s managed the homers (1.51 HR/9). But I can’t forgive his past, and the Nationals aren’t the best team in terms of run support.
Tier Five
Hunter Brown, Astros
George Kirby, Mariners
Pablo Lopez, Twins
Cristopher Sanchez, Phillies
Jacob deGrom, Rangers
Hunter Brown has been one of the biggest risers of the year. He’s another guy I missed on badly during draft season. The K-BB% is nearly 25%, and he has one of the deepest and most impressive pitch mixes in the league right now. The qualm I have is that his SwStr% (12.2%) and Ball% (36%) are both right at the league average. He’s been a bit lucky (12% HR/FB, .263 BABIP), but the floor feels rock solid with this guy.
We’re assuming that George Kirby gets back to his usual ways with a 23-25% K% and a walk rate below 3%. He’s one of the best command pitchers to ever do it, I think. And he has great stuff along with that strike throwing. There’s a possibility that he won’t be able to totally shake the injury, and that could hurt, but he seems fine for now so I’d view him as a very strong SP2 in fantasy.
I’m not going to take the time to write a paragraph on 100 pitchers. So we’ll suffice it to say that Cristopher Sanchez’s strikeout rate being up along with the high GB% makes him pretty close to elite. It’s a tenuous time for Jacob deGrom right now after that down velo start, and the season K% is just at 25%. deGrom is always scary, but I can’t keep him out of the top 20 while he’s healthy.
Tier Six
Kris Bubic, Royals
Corbin Burnes, Diamondbacks
Framber Valdez, Astros
Time will tell if Bubic can shoulder the big workload. I would be looking to sell high on him right not, but the numbers are elite.
Burnes, I don’t know man! I’d have had him way lower than this if I wrote this ten days ago, but he’s had three great starts in a row.
Valdez has it going now after a shaky start. He’s a guy who typically really gets going and finishes strong, and the safety he brings is very nice - it’s also great to see the K% down to 8.3%.
Tier Seven
Spencer Schwellenbach, Braves
Spencer Strider, Braves
Jesus Luzardo, Phillies
Nick Pivetta, Padres
Bryan Woo, Mariners
Nathan Eovaldi, Rangers
We still have very good pitchers here. There are just some questions about age, health, consistency, etc. but I’d be happy to have any of these guys on my team.
And these are all guys, especially Schwelly and Strider, who could jump way up in the rankings if they have a few really dominant outings in June.
Luzardo would still make me a bit nervous, but you can’t find any problems with what he’s done this year.
Tier Eight
Jack Flaherty, Tigers
Ryan Weathers, Marlins
Sonny Gray, Cardinals
Freddy Peralta, Brewers
Robbie Ray, Giants
Bailey Ober, Twins
We are mostly out of the “ace potential” territory here, but we still have some very good arms. Flaherty is frustrating at times, but the numbers usually turn out strong. Weathers looks very good since joining the Marlins rotation, there aren’t too many lefties out there throwing 98 as a starter. Sonny Gray, Freddy Peralta, Robbie Ray, and Bailey Ober are alot like like Flaherty. Bad starts mixed with good ones, but mostly good results at the end of the year.
Tier Nine
Kevin Gausman, Blue Jays
Kodai Senga, Mets
Luis Castillo, Mariners
Tanner Bibee, Guardians
If Gausman keeps the current roll up for a few more starts, he’d shoot up the ranks into the top 25, I think. But I don’t trust the splitter. I think he’ll have a couple of rough starts soon - that just seems to be who the guy is. But I’d still like to start him every time out on my fantasy teams because he is capable of such dominance when he’s right.
Senga has clearly been very lucky this year, and the strikeout rate isn’t very good right now. But I think he can probably ramp up the strikeouts because of the good stuff he has, and that should offset the damage that occurs from him losing some of his luck.
Luis Castillo looks a lot more like his usual self in recent starts, but his career has been on a bit of decline
Tanner Bibee has not pitched like a top 40 SP, but I can forgive him. He was strong last year and has showed some more positive signs lately. There is real drop off around #35 on the SP list right now, so he gets credit for his floor here. He’ll stay in the rotation and put up decent numbers the rest of the way out, and you can’t that with as much confidence for the rest of the list.
Tier Ten
Dustin May, Dodgers
Ranger Suarez, Phillies
Tylor Megill, Mets
Drew Rasmussen, Rays
Clay Holmes, Mets
Dustin May has his strikeout rate up to 25% now, and that’s pretty exciting. The walk rate is also fine (8.5%), so he’s looking good and I’m ranking him pretty aggressively.
Ranger Suarez is off to another fantastic start. But I can never get too excited about the guy. His SwStr% is always mediocre and he’s never been an elite walk rate guy. So I can’t feel great about his WHIP (1.42 in 2023, 1.20 last year), and that keeps him down further on my list.
Tier Eleven
Matthew Liberatore, Cardinals
Richard Fitts, Red Sox
Nick Lodolo, Reds
Will Warren, Yankees
Merrill Kelly, Diamondbacks
Shane Smith, White Sox
Zac Gallen, Diamondbacks
Chris Bassitt, Blue Jays
Seth Lugo, Royals
Lucas Giolito, Red Sox
Andrew Abbott, Reds
Matthew Boyd, Cubs
And this was the point where things got really tough for me. We’ve got some breakouts (Liberatore, Warren, Fitts) who look good so far this year, but it’s impossible to trust them for a lot of reasons.
And then you have the veterans (Kelly, Gallen, Bassitt, Lugo) who are usually mediocre but are pitching well so far this year. It’s just tough to know what to do with them - but I have to rank them above all of the guys to where you don’t even know if they’ll be around next month.
Tier Twelve
Yusei Kikuchi, Angels
Brandon Pfaadt, Diamondbacks
Zebby Matthews, Twins
Grant Holmes, Braves
Tyler Mahle, Rangers
Ryan Pepiot, Rays
We have a mixture here. Some home run issue (Pfaadt, Pepiot), some low-K overperformers (Mahle), and some question marks due to a lack of a sample size (Zebby, Holmes). I don’t feel great about starting these guys in tough matchups, but they’re all capable of having strong outings. And there’s still ceiling here.
I could see Kikuchi bouncing back and having a strong second half, because he did exactly that last year.
Zebby looks pretty electric right now, but he has to stay in the rotation and keep the ball in the ballpark. And the lack of an elite BB% this year (including the minors) makes me really wonder about what kind of ERA we should expect with his heavy fly ball ways.
I’m pretty low on Mahle, as you can see, but he’s been really, really lucky - and we have the workload questions with him since he hasn’t pitched much at all for the lack two years.
Tier Thirteen
Gavin Williams, Guardians
Cade Horton, Cubs
Tony Gonsolin, Dodgers
Griffin Canning, Mets
Clarke Schmidt, Yankees
I’m a bit high on Gavin Williams, just because I love the fastball he has and because the strikeouts have been coming in bunches lately. But the lack of command and lack of great secondary stuff probably will continue to hold him back.
Cade Horton seems to be playing with fire to me. His fastball is not great, and I don’t know if he can survive with it. But he’s been fine so far, and he’s on a very good team in a weak hitting division.
Gonsolin/Canning/Schmidt are all pretty similar to me. We know who these guys are. They’re low-ceiling players who I think have overperformed this year. But you still want to start them in good matchups.
Tier Fourteen
Luis L. Ortiz, Guardians
Hayden Birdsong, Giants
David Peterson, Mets
Ben Brown, Cubs
Michael Soroka, Nationals
Landen Roupp, Giants
Walker Buehler, Red Sox
Chad Patrick, Brewers
Max Meyer, Marlins
Jose Soriano, Angels
And this is a mash of unknowns. We have strikeouts without command (Ortiz, Birdsong, Brown, Roupp), we have guys who have a way of going out there and looking just awful at times (Brown, Buehler, Meyer). It’s all pretty much “good matchups only” here.
But the jury is still out on most of these names. These aren’t guys we have seen consistently in Major League rotations for several years now. It’s mostly a young group, and there is plenty of arm talent here.
Tier Fifteen
Taj Bradley, Rays
AJ Smith-Shawver, Braves
Landon Knack, Dodgers
Shane Baz, Rays
Jose Berrios, Blue Jays
Mitch Keller, Pirates
Slade Cecconi, Guardians
Noah Cameron, Royals
Jackson Jobe, Tigers
I’m losing belief in a hurry with this group. The park change has really crushed these Rays fly-ballers. Bradley and Baz have shown signs of greatness, but overall their numbers are bad. Bradley and Baz look really bad of late.
And then you have your classic pairing of Berrios and Keller. Reliable guys for innings, but the ratios are usually not helpful.
One name to watch closely here is Slade Cecconi. He has come out of the gate hot for Cleveland, but it will take a few more starts to get me really believing in him.
Tier Sixteen
J.T. Ginn, Athletics
Jameson Taillon, Cubs
Tyler Anderson, Angels
Sandy Alcantara, Marlins
A foursome of tough guys to rank. Taillon and Anderson are decent streamers, but we know they aren’t going to go out there and be great for fantasy leagues for any extended period of time.
I like Ginn a bit, but we need more data on him to make a solid judgement. Probably the lack of experience and that home ballpark will hold him back.
It becomes gloomier and gloomier for Sandy every time he takes the ball, but I don’t think I can kick him out of the top 100 yet just because of the history he has. Maybe, just maybe he’s still getting healthy and back to up speed? I don’t know, but I’m not starting him anywhere right now.
Tier Seventeen
Bowden Francis, Blue Jays
Jack Leiter, Rangers
Ryan Gusto, Astros
Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers
Tomoyuki Sugano, Orioles
Kyle Harrison, Giants
Logan Evans, Mariners
Edward Cabrera, Marlins
Cade Povich, Orioles
Andre Pallante, Cardinals
Ryne Nelson, Diamondbacks
Bowden Francis, Blue Jays
And here’s just kind of “the rest”. There are many other names that hover around the 90-120 range for me, but this is what I decided on.
So that’s it, 100 SPs re-ranked. Please roast me in the comments if that’s how your heart feels led.
Here’s the full list in Excel format. But it won’t be updated, at least not for a little while.
I believe you missed Cole Ragans? Or am I missing him?