Waiver Wire Targets - May 25
Jon brings you some waiver wire targets at each position ahead of week ten in the fantasy baseball season!
Blake wasn’t able to contribute this week, so this will just be me moving quickly through some waiver wire targets at each position.
Starting Pitcher
Shane Smith (27%): ERA can be misleading. But it’s not a stat you completely throw out. And Smith sits here with a 2.36 ERA in 10 starts. That’s impressive. His walk rate is fine at 8.1%, and he has at least five strikeouts in four straight outings. He seems to have improved, and the wicked changeup he has so far has given him a pretty solid floor. And even his fastball looks pretty great with a 13.1% SwStr% and 53% Strike%. The pitch mix looks nice, and it seems like Smith is a pretty good option here, even on the poor team.
Gavin Williams (40%): It’s not the greatest time to pick up Williams, as his next start is against the Dodgers. You probably don’t want to use him in that spot. But we all remember that alleged upside Williams has shown at various points in his career, specifically this spring. Well, he’s shown us some of that again recently with 29 strikeouts in his last four outings. That has brought his season K% up to 27%. There has also been some bad luck going into his poor ERA thus far (.336 BABIP, 21% HR/FB), so I think the future is brighter than the past. There are certainly problems in the profile (12% BB%), so it’s no slam dunk that he’s going to be useful moving forward, but I cannot escape the strikeout-driven upside here.
Ben Brown (26%): I’m writing this before his start against the Reds on Saturday. Brown has been spotty and inconsistent, and the curveball-heaviness of his pitch mix makes me think he will stay that way. But he does have a 20% K-BB% through 46 innings with a 13.4% SWstr% and a 34% Ball%. He checks the main boxes. And I’m interested to see his continued development.
Will Warren (30%): I can’t really explain where this 33% K% has come from over his last six starts. He has just an 11% SwStr% and a 48% Strike% - those numbers are not good. But something is going on. It’s now four straight outings with at least seven strikeouts, and the walks have been under control in that sample as well. He’s a tough guy to face, especially for right-handed hitters. I think we can ride the wave for a bit on him.
Luis Ortiz (13%): People are really not buying into it. And I get it, the ERA sits at 4.66 with a 1.39 WHIP. His command has been bad (11%), and he’s not even a guy keeping the ball in the yard (1.3 HR/9. But the season K% is up to 26.5%, and if you forgive his first two starts, he has a 32% K% and an 11.9% BB%. That’s a 20 K-BB%! It’s not going to be consistent or pretty, but Ortiz has clearly found a way to get punchouts - and that will take him a decent way by itself.
Noah Cameron (12%): Deep leagues only. This 12% ownership is going to shoot up this weekend after his performance on Friday. He’s now 19.1 innings into his Major League season with a 0.93 ERA and 0.67 WHIP. That itself will lead to most leagues having someone ready to pull the trigger on him. I don’t really buy it (20% K%, 8.5% BB% so far), so I do not recommend spending resources on him. But maybe he has the secret sauce - and at the very least, the Royals will roll him out there one or two more times to reward this early run suppression.